Have we finally broken Bitcoin’s four-year cycle?

Trying to forecast Bitcoin’s next move can feel a bit like trying to read a crystal ball … the next four weeks are hard enough, let alone the next four years. Yet, unlike most assets, Bitcoin has always followed a surprisingly predictable rhythm. Every four years, its programmed halving event cuts the mining reward (which supports the supply of new coins) in half, creating a shock of scarcity that has historically ignited massive bull runs.

After each halving, the same story tends to play out: prices bottom in the lead-up, momentum builds again and then within 12–18 months, Bitcoin climbs to dizzying highs…only to collapse again by 70–85 %. 

After the most recent (April 2024) halving, Bitcoin once again surged – briefly pushing above $125k earlier this year before cooling back toward the $100k mark. Following this, a familiar mix of excitement and unease has crept back in. Investors reason that we’re around 570 days post-halving, and if the past three cycles are anything to go on, we are slightly beyond the typical 12-18 month cycle and possibly breaking new ground. Bitcoin’s recent dip under 100k was enough to send many investors into a panic around price freefall – but in reality, Bitcoin has had a daily close above $100k or just under for more than six months now. 

The truth is that we’re no longer in a market driven purely by retail speculation or short-term hype. Institutional demand, stablecoin expansion, ETF inflows and broader macro dynamics including treasury company growth are changing how Bitcoin breathes and the familiar cadence of rise, peak and crash seems to be slowing.

The question this time, for many, is different: has Bitcoin finally outgrown its four-year destiny?

The classic cycle and two competing views

There are two schools of thought about what drives these famous four-year rhythms…

The first is native and structural – the halving itself.
Fewer new Bitcoins entering circulation creates scarcity and demand (which is often led by retail investors) eventually pushes prices up until the next peak.

The second view is macro-linked – that crypto cycles are increasingly tied to spikes in global liquidity and an increasing appetite for investment risk.
Within this framing, halvings may set the tempo, but central banks still play the melody and the availability (or absence) of cheap money and low interest rates defines how much risk capital is available to flow into assets like Bitcoin.

Right now, it’s the second force that feels more dominant as we’ve seen tightening cycles across the US, Europe and Asia, followed by an easing that’s only just beginning. In short, while we have benefitted from the supply shock of the halving, the global macro cycle is out of sync because of the covid inflation hangover. If the ‘macro delay’ hypothesis holds true, the next leg up might  be in the wings, it’s just simply running late.

Is the cycle broken, or just streeeeeeetched?

If you squint, you can still see the same-ish shape…accumulation, expansion, euphoria and correction…but the timing is elastic because global liquidity has disrupted Bitcoin’s tidy rhythm.

In earlier cycles, we could almost set our clocks to it…

• 2012 halving;  2013 peak; 2014 slump
  
• 2016 halving; 2017 peak; 2018 slump
  
• 2020 halving; 2021 peak; 2022 slump
  

The 2024 halving has come and gone with less of a bang and more of a hum. The Bitcoin ETFs have changed the game and institutional inflows now create a steadier, more persistent ‘bid’ rather than speculative booms. (NYDIG calls this  The Forever Bid – a world where Bitcoin shifts from cyclical speculation to structural allocation.)

Volatility has grown up too

There’s another noticeable shift too…volatility is compressing. Whereas past cycles saw 80 % drawdowns that would make your stomach turn; the swings are more muted today – yes, still sharp, but less catastrophic.

When you look at Altcoins, the difference is even clearer. We haven’t had a true ‘Alt season’ this cycle and there’s been no runaway speculative mania yet. Correlations are actually tighter and many Alts are lagging badly which is what happens when capital is institutional – the market becomes less about emotion and more about liquidity structure.

So where are we, exactly?

Instead of reverting to the four-year cycle, it’s becoming clearer now that the cycle itself has always been powered by two forces working in tandem – the programmed scarcity of each halving and the ebb and flow of global liquidity. When money is easy and risk appetite expands, Bitcoin rallies and halvings acts as the ‘spark’ that meets the dry powder of macro liquidity. With global easing finally underway, the conditions for the next leg higher may already be taking shape.

TLDR: The combination of halving scarcity and renewed liquidity isn’t a new story – it’s the same cycle playing out, just in a more mature market with deeper, institutional currents beneath the surface.

A market that’s learning to breathe very differently

We’re not in a retail market anymore and this time, it’s pensions, ETFs, sovereign funds and corporates building positions quietly and steadily. That’s why pullbacks are smaller and recoveries are faster because people are allocating and rebalancing, not reacting to fear and greed.

In this sense, maybe the ‘cycle’ hasn’t died…it’s just evolved into a more mature phase of the same organism. Bitcoin isn’t acting like a speculative asset; it’s acting like an emerging macro asset class.

And about those numbers…

Let’s put some data to the debate…

Across previous halvings, average gains from cycle bottom to cycle top were roughly +9 000 % (2013), +2 900 % (2017) and +700 % (2021).  Each time, the upside has diminished as market cap and liquidity deepen – this is very natural.

The current range – from the 2022 low near $15 500 to a recent high near $125 000 – is a healthy circa 800 % gain and if this expansion follows form, a move to $130 000 – $150 000 would be consistent with a maturing but intact cycle.

The real question though is…what happens after?

Do we crash to $60-70k again or simply consolidate sideways while institutions keep buying dips?

The new reality is ‘time’ not ‘timing’

In the end, whether we’re ‘outside’ the four-year cycle might be the wrong question. What we’re seeing instead is a stretched, more complex version of the same pattern – one now influenced as much by central banks as by miners.

Short term, markets will still overestimate what’s coming next. Long term, they’ll probably underestimate the structural shift that’s already underway.

So maybe the right framing is this: the four-year cycle isn’t broken…it’s graduated. Bitcoin is ready for the big time now. 

And as always, remember the crypto paradox: we tend to overprice the next six months and underprice the next six years.