Weekly Market Update: A Hostile Takeover

As 2025 is almost in the books, it’s time to look back at some of the bold Bitcoin price targets set at the start of the year:  

JPMorgan called for $170,000; Standard Chartered said $200,000; Tim Draper upped his bid to $250,000; Robert Kiyosaki wasn’t shy about calling $350,000; and Chamath Palihapitiya got laser eyes calling for $500,000.

With roughly three weeks remaining, Bitcoin’s yearly high sits at $126,000, which is respectable in absolute terms, but well below the most optimistic calls. Macro headwinds including Trump’s trade-policy uncertainty and a Federal Reserve that stayed cautiously higher-for-longer played their part in tempering the rally.

Monetary easing and fiscal stimulus is about to kick into high gear into 2026, which has given Raoul Pal and other bulls more hopium to argue we’re simply in an extended cycle, with the traditional four-year pattern stretching into a five-year “supercycle” that could still peak in 2026. It’s entirely possible. Time will tell.

One clear takeaway this year: Bitcoin continues to trade more like a risk-on tech asset than a classic inflation hedge. Gold outperformed on a relative basis, while Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq hit a three-year high of 0.8 in November, moving like a leveraged play on tech and blockchain adoption. Which in itself is still a very respectable position.

What has been remarkable, however, is the speed of institutional integration that unfolded in the second half of the year: JPMorgan filed for leveraged products on BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF; Nasdaq proposed significantly higher position limits on Bitcoin ETF options; Vanguard enabled crypto ETF access for its 50 million clients; Bank of America authorized 15,000 advisors to discuss Bitcoin allocations up to 4%; and eight of the top ten U.S. banks now offer crypto collateralized lending.

In short, while retail was selling and sentiment hit lows, traditional finance absorbed Bitcoin into mature infrastructure frameworks at an unprecedented pace! 

Interestingly, the embrace is happening primarily through regulated vehicles like ETFs, derivatives and custody solutions, that generate ongoing fees. And at the same time, index providers like MSCI are debating whether treasury companies holding Bitcoin directly on their balance sheets (like Strategy) should remain eligible for broad indices.

It’s a hostile takeover without the glitz and fanfare of the Paramount-Netflix deal.

Consider this: large institutions rarely commit capital and build infrastructure unless they see a multi-year opportunity. What do they see or know that we don’t? Their actions suggest conviction that Bitcoin’s role in portfolios is becoming permanent, even if the path and timing remain debated. 

Whatever 2026 brings, whether it’s a delayed cycle peak, another bear market or simply continued steady adoption, the infrastructure is now in place for the next leg.

Quiet reminder: owning roughly 0.2 BTC still places you in the top 1% of all Bitcoin addresses worldwide. While the big players have been making their moves, scarcity hasn’t gone anywhere. And you still have time to secure your stake. But always DYOR!

Market sentiment has slowly recovered a bit to: Fear

Crypto market moves: 

• Bitcoin is consolidating around the $90k mark closing the week at $90.4k.
• Bitcoin ETF inflows have remained relatively muted for a second week as the market is waiting for the Fed rate cut decision and a clear next move.
• Glassnode says that multiple Bitcoin on-chain metrics now resemble conditions seen at the start of the 2022 bear market, including elevated top buyer stress and a sharp rise in supply held at a loss.
• If Bitcoin breaks above $100k nearly $6 billion in short positions could be liquidated!
• The Fear & Green index remains beaten down in “Fear” and Google Search volume on “Bitcoin” is still well down – retail waiting for FOMO to start again!
• This is also reflected in the Bitcoin weekly RSI remaining in oversold territory at 41.
• Bitcoin dominance is still sitting at 59% with just 18 of the top 100 Altcoins outperforming Bitcoin in the last 90 days.
• The total crypto market cap has risen slightly to over $3.2 trillion with most of the top 100 cryptos finishing the week in the green.
• Polymarket gives 40% chance that BTC will reclaim $100k in 2025 and just 4% chance that it will get back to $120k. 
• The big winner of the week is ZEC (Zcash) +36.8% as the privacy coin narrative regains momentum.
• The big loser of the week is HYPE (Hyperliquid) -16.7% due to the significant token unlock at the end of November.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space

The crypto market seems to have found a steadier footing with Bitcoin largely remaining above $90k heading into the last U.S. Fed rate cut decision of the year – the markets expect another 25 bps cut and further easing of liquidity to provide tail winds to a somewhat jittery Santa rally. The big question is; can Bitcoin reclaim $100k by Christmas?

Bank of America says its wealth management clients should start thinking about getting some crypto exposure in their portfolios, endorsing up to 4% allocation to digital assets.

Macro-guru Raoul Pal just reconfirmed his theory that “the 4-year cycle has become the 5-year supercycle.” That puts Bitcoin’s peak not in Q4 2025…but in mid-2026.

ETFs and Public Companies now hold more Bitcoin than exchanges:

A group of 10 European banks, including institutional heavyweights such as BNP Paribas, are planning to launch a Stablecoin backed by the euro by the end of 2026.

South Korea is moving to impose bank-level liability standards on crypto exchanges following a $30.1 million hack at Upbit last month.

Citadel Securities has urged US regulators to treat some decentralised finance (DeFi) systems more like traditional market infrastructure, prompting a backlash from crypto advocates.

CoinShares head of research has dismissed Tether insolvency concerns following warnings from BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, who claimed a 30% drop in the stablecoin issuer’s Bitcoin and gold holdings could wipe out its equity.

Christmas present idea: More than one-in-four U.S. adults, and nearly half of Gen-Z adults, say they would be excited to receive cryptocurrency as a gift:

Other crypto news:

• AI company Anthropic reported that automated AI Agents successfully exploited a large portion of smart contracts in a mock set-up.

• Lamborghini has joined forces with Ledger to launch its own Bitcoin wallet.

• Ethereum completed its Fusaka upgrade last week, a major network hard fork designed to boost scalability and dramatically lower transaction costs on Layer 2 networks.

• U.K. is among the first countries to recognise cryptocurrency as personal property affording greater legal protection to owners.

• MetaMask has integrated Polymarket into its mobile app.

• After a 2 year pause, Coinbase has officially restarted its business in India.

Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon is due to be sentenced later this week on charges of defrauding investors.

🌎 Macro news TLDR: European weakness a threat to American security

President Trump is furious about the EU’s fines on Elon Musk’s X platform for breaching digital regulations, but his new National Security Strategy elevates that complaint into a sweeping challenge to Europe. 

The continent is being ordered to stand on its own militarily, eliminate its strategic weakness, and overhaul its economy, or face sustained American economic coercion.

The United States is abandoning its traditional role as Europe’s security guarantor. No longer will Washington tolerate NATO freeloading while it shifts focus to hemispheric defense and closer ties across the Caribbean. JD Vance’s earlier criticisms pale beside this document’s harsh portrayal of the EU as an institution that erodes sovereignty and undermines civilizational strength. 

Support for Ukraine has become optional. As U.S. forces withdraw, Europe should expect a barrage of tariffs, sanctions and pressure to dismantle its green and digital regulations – lessons already learned from Ursula von der Leyen’s failed trade concessions.

Trump’s strategy, though blunt, simply voices concerns many Europeans already share: Washington now views European weakness as a direct risk to American security. 

As the U.S. reduces its military commitment, it is likely to intervene more aggressively in Europe’s political choices, insisting on alignment against China. Giving in to Trump’s demands will only invite further pressure. 

In this era of escalating trade confrontation, from fines on X to the broader China challenge, the side that imposes costs and inflicts damage most decisively will prevail.

Economic news from the Americas

The Pentagon has set an ambitious 2027 deadline for European nations to assume most of NATO conventional military responsibilities. America first… Europe needs to protect itself!

Turning away from Europe, President Trump also announced that the U.S. may exit the USMCA trade deal entirely, setting his sights on negotiating better terms with their two neighbouring countries.

With a stroke of his pen, President Trump formally ended the 30-year long Rwanda-Congo war by signing a massive critical minerals deal. A classic case of show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome – but will it hold?

Treasury Secretary Bessent says it’s been a “very strong” holiday season for the economy and predicts that the U.S. will end the year at 3% real GDP.

Paramount launched a hostile bid to secure Warner Brothers after it lost out to Netflix – the all-cash deal is valued at a whopping $108 billion. In an unsurprising plot twist, President Trump is carefully monitoring developments with an anti-trust investigation likely.

The U.S. Treasury bought back $12.5 billion of their own debt last week, injecting fresh liquidity into the banking system. 

All eyes on the U.S. Fed meeting tomorrow as they decide on the last rate cut for this year – FedWatch is showing 89% chance of a 25 bps cut. But more importantly, are more cuts planned for 2026 and will Fed Chair Powell formally kick off QE by announcing a monthly treasury bill buy back program? 

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

Elon Musk’s social media platform X has been fined €120m for allegedly deceiving users by not “meaningfully verifying” the blue verified check tick badges. President Trump is not happy to say the least!

President Putin met with Prime Minister Modi in New Delhi last week in a show of solidarity, offering India an uninterrupted supply of Russian oil. 

President Trump’s Ukraine envoy has suggested that a deal to end the Ukraine war is “really close” and now depends on resolving two main issues: the future of Ukraine’s Donbas region and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Potential plot twist: President Zelenskiy met with British, French, and German leaders in London, rallying allies for support in the face of mounting U.S. pressure for a deal.

And in Asia Pacific…

China’s trade surplus topped $1 trillion for the first time in November as manufacturers seeking to avoid President Trump’s tariffs shipped more to non-U.S. markets. 

The Bank of Japan faces a stark choice at their next meeting on 18-19 December: sticking with its policy of raising rates and risking even higher yields and further slowing an already sagging economy, or holding or cutting rates to support growth that could accelerate inflation further.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held the OCR steady at 3.6% and signalled that it’s a bit nervous that the three interest rate cuts this year may have been too much. Australia is facing its shortest rate cut cycle in 30 years, leaving many mortgage holders feeling short-changed after the RBA’s equally historic 13 rate hikes.

In NZ, the rental housing market swung further in tenants’ favour in November, with the number of properties hitting a record high while asking rents continued to decline. Realestate.co.nz received 7,253 new rental listings in November, which was up 12.4% on November last year.

Black Friday was officially the busiest shopping day of the year, but fell short of passing last year’s total as non-food goods spending was down 6.2% compared with last year. The slow recovery continues. 

That’s a wrap for this week!

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