Weekly Market Update: Approaching Critical Juncture?

News alert: Easy Crypto and Swyftx have joined forces.

We are excited to announce that Easy Crypto and Swyftx have joined forces to create a new crypto powerhouse!🥳🥳

The combination of two of the leading crypto platforms across New Zealand and Australia means even more products, innovation and investment, ensuring that we continue to deliver a local, safe and easy experience for anyone wanting to invest in crypto.

This partnership was a natural fit, driven by our shared vision of making crypto more accessible and empowering financial freedom across the markets we operate within.

For now, nothing changes as both companies will continue operating as separate platforms – and we’ll keep you updated as the partnership develops.

As our valued customers we’d like to thank you for your ongoing support.

The Weekly Market Update

A wise man once said: “reversion to the mean is the iron rule of the financial markets” – John Bogle (Founder of the Vanguard Group).

Leverage has been obliterated! The Trump trade war has been a wrecking ball to frothy markets, flushing out weak hands and over-leveraged positions who thought they could outsmart the storm. 

Meanwhile, China is attempting to resuscitate their flailing economy with more stimulus. The war drums are beating across Europe with plans to increase defence spending.

Growing recession fears and disinflation in the U.S. could force the Fed to lower interest rates and restart those money printers sooner than expected… Global liquidity is on the rise again!

But here’s the kicker: this chaos isn’t the end, it’s just par for the course as we near the peak of this investing cycle. But are we there yet?

Stocks have dipped and crypto has stumbled. Ethereum is testing conviction and leaving even the diamond hands to wonder if ETH 2.0 actually meant “ETH to zero” (joking but not joking!). And every Trump related headline sends a ripple of panic through the jittery markets. 

While crypto portfolios have taken a beating, a host of bullish catalysts could spark a dramatic turnaround at any moment. The SEC’s increasingly lenient stance, the U.S. crypto strategic reserve bolstering Bitcoin’s credibility as a global reserve asset, Michael Saylor’s cryptic hint that “big things are coming,” and Senator Lummis unveiling a refined ‘buy 1 million Bitcoin’ Bill in the Senate all point to explosive potential for the market.

Those who didn’t flinch when the screens glowed red, and continued to buy Bitcoin while others dumped in despair, are locked and loaded for a possible rebound.

Are you ready for what’s next? We’re approaching a critical juncture… Buckle up, because either way it’s sure to get wild.

Market sentiment is slowly recovering but still showing: Fear

Highlights this week: 

• Market volatility is still high but stabilising as Bitcoin and crypto is grinding sideways in a tightening range and consolidating for the next move.
• Total crypto market cap is sitting around $2.8T and down -$1T since the recent ATH.
• Market sentiment has improved a bit from the prior weeks and record ETF outflows have also slowed to a more neutral level.
• BTC is flat for the week (at time of writing) and it has traded in the low to mid $80k range – holding above the previous mid $70k ‘breakout zone’ is a potentially bullish signal. 
• ETH continues to test conviction as it struggles to break back above the crucial $2k level – the ETH to BTC ratio made a 4 year low at 2.2% having continued to decline since the change to Proof of Stake in mid 2022.
• Most of the top 100 cryptos are in the green this week with TON leading the way growing +33.1% on news that their founder has been allowed to leave France.
• The surprise gainer of the week is BNB posting double digit gains of +13.1%.
• Biggest losers for the week are PI -19.2%, AAVE -7.1% and ENA -6.9% retracing some of the prior week’s run up.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more. 

Highlights from the crypto space

Market experts generally define a crypto bear market as when prices have been down at a minimum of 20% drop for roughly three months – during this time supply increases and confidence is lower. The clock is ticking but we’re not quite there just yet!

Bitcoin has declined 30% after topping out in mid-January. “The extent of the drop is characteristic of bull market corrections”, said market analyst Timothy Peterson, who senses the potential for a comeback and is calling for a ‘new all time high’ by June.

Less than 1 week after the U.S. crypto strategic reserve announcement, Senator Lummis reintroduced to Congress her BITCOIN Act.

The bill mandates that the Secretary of the Treasury purchase “not more than 200,000 Bitcoins per year over a 5-year period, for a total acquisition of 1,000,000 Bitcoins to be held for at least 20 years.” 

Bullish if it goes through, but Polymarket is currently only giving it a 5% chance of success!

Bitcoin has always had two key narratives: a short-term risk asset that is sensitive to global liquidity, and also as a longer-term store of value – which is increasingly being called into question as prices have plunged on trade war uncertainties. 

The Kobeissi letter has pointed out: “While gold prices are up +10%, Bitcoin is down -10% since January 1st, and crypto is no longer viewed as a safe haven play.”

On the other hand, Gold broke $3,000 for a new ‘all time high’ on Friday as investors piled on to a historic rally in the safe-haven asset to seek cover from economic uncertainty.

Speaking of global liquidity, bulls are getting fired up on social media about the potential correlation (with 3 month lag) between Bitcoin and M2 Global Liquidity – that on top of the $4 billion worth of shorts that stand to be liquidated at $90k… 

Elon Musk posted a controversial video revealing during a podcast with Senator Ted Cruz that there are 14 ‘magic money computers’ within the U.S. federal government!

And Michael Saylor caused a stir (again) last week with a cryptic message on X:

The SEC vs. Ripple case is reportedly nearing its end – Fox News journalist shared a scoop: “Two well-placed sources tell me that the delay in reaching an agreement is due to Ripple’s legal team negotiating more favorable terms regarding the August district court ruling.”

A whale (possibly an insider) who opened a $380 million BTC short with 40x leverage is being hunted publicly on X by a group of traders who are trying to liquidate him at $86,600.

A crypto trader fell victim to a ‘sandwich attack’ while making a $220,764 stablecoin transfer last week – swapping $220,764 worth of USDC for just $5,271 of USDT! In eight seconds a MEV (Maximum Extractible Value) bot successfully front-ran the transaction, banking over $215,500.

Telegram founder Pavel Durov has left France and relocated to Dubai after permission to leave was granted by a French court – in response Toncoin (TON) is up over 30% for the week.

An Argentine prosecutor asked a judge on Thursday to issue an Interpol “Red Notice” for Hayden Davis, who claims to be behind the launch of a memecoin that has ensnared Argentine president Javier Milei in a political scandal, and another coin tied to First Lady Melania Trump.

In other crypto news…

• Coinbase has secured registration in India with plans to launch initial retail services later this year, followed by additional investment and products.

• MoonPay has acquired Iron, an API-driven startup specializing in stablecoin infrastructure, enabling them to better compete with Stripe for fast, cost-effective and borderless stablecoin transactions.

• Russia has reportedly adopted Bitcoin and crypto for ‘oil trade operations’ in an attempt to continue to circumvent Western sanctions.

• The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump family may have held talks with Binance U.S. about acquiring a stake in the crypto exchange – CZ denies the rumours.

• The SEC has delayed its decision to approve several XRP, Solana, Litecoin and Dogecoin ETFs stating that it has “designated a longer period to decide on the proposed rule changes” that would allow these to proceed.

• Former Binance CEO CZ created some chatter on social media again: “On AI agents, I have an unpopular opinion: While crypto is the currency for AI, not every agent needs its own token. Agents can take fees in an existing crypto for providing a service. Launch a coin only if you have scale. Focus on utility, not tokens”. 

• A new Solana prediction market called Takes.fun just launched – users can create opinions and trading insights and start “Agree” or “Disagree” voting earning 20% of the investment amount.

  Big news for the onchain economy!🎉 

NZDD is now live on Base, bringing faster and cheaper transactions to the Optimism network. Whether you’re a builder scaling projects, a business optimising costs, or a user transacting in New Zealand dollars, this is your moment to shine in the onchain economy!

🌎 Macro news TLDR: …is that the sound of money printers starting up?

President Trump’s trade war has been rattling cages and crashing markets, setting the stage for a rebound that’s potentially coming faster than anyone expects.

Stimulus is the name of the game!

To dodge a recession bullet, Europe and China are frantically unloading growth plans and liquidity bazookas, hoping to juice up their sputtering economies as consumer demand flatlines and markets continue to slide.

Key U.S. economic indicators are pointing to slowing inflation and growing chance of a recession – will the Fed be forced to pivot quicker than expected to lower interest rates and turn the money printers back on? 

Berkshire Hathaway has a record cash pile of nearly $200 million on the sidelines and ready to pounce when the moment is right.

Will the markets keep sliding into a bear market and global recession, or will a liquidity-charged shot in the arm spark a fierce rebound rally? At this point anything is possible.

U.S. economic news

The U.S. budget deficit worsened during President Trump’s first month in office, as the shortfall for February passed $1 trillion – as DOGE prepares for a second round of mass layoffs of federal employees despite two court orders challenging reinstatement. 

President Trump admits that U.S. is in a ‘period of transition’ and doesn’t rule out the possibility of a recession. 

US inflation moved up less than expected in February, putting the annual CPI rate at 2.8% and at the lowest level since April 2021- providing relief for consumers and businesses with growing concerns around the trade war impact.

The Producer Price Index, a wholesale inflation gauge that is being closely monitored for tariff impacts, also showed that price hikes slowed in February and were unchanged from January (rising 3.2% for the 12 months).

The market is widely expecting that this is not enough to entice the Fed to push through another rate cut – Jerome Powell has said “tariffs could feed inflation, the Fed must wait to determine the impact” – listen carefully to his choice of words and tone at the FOMC meeting later this week. 

Polymarket, our new authority on all polls and predictions, shows a 40% chance of a U.S. recession. As the Treasury Secretary says the White House is working overtime to head off a ‘guaranteed’ financial crisis – too little, too late?

Over in Europe….

President Putin said on Thursday that Russia agrees in principle with the U.S. led ceasefire plan backed by Ukraine earlier this week, but he stopped short of signing up to any deal, arguing that it needed further negotiation and must lead to “enduring peace.”

In response to a 50% tariff on U.S. whisky, President Trump said he plans to put a 200% tariff on Champagne and alcohol from France and other European nations – calling the E.U. “one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the World, which was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States”.

The U.K.’s economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% month-on-month in January, official figures showed on Friday. Britain’s Office for National Statistics said the fall was mainly due to a contraction in the production sector as recession fears continue to grow.

And in Asia Pacific…

China announced a “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption” on Sunday with multiple measures included to stabilize the stock market that  is facing a sluggish consumer landscape – the most recent CPI in February registered the steepest fall in over a year.

Australian Prime Minister, ‘Albo’ (as they call him), had another rough week – starting with a stern warning from Russia about deploying peace keeping troops on the ground in the Ukraine. And then confirmation that the 25% tariffs on all U.S. steel and aluminium imports will indeed include Australia, an action that he called “entirely unjustified”.

Over in NZ, housing stock for sale on TradeMe passed a 10 year high with more than 49,000 listings after a relatively flat summer of sales.

The latest QV House Price Index Report shows the average value of New Zealand homes was $912,904 at the end of February. That’s up 0.5% compared to three months earlier, but down 1.4% compared to the end of February last year.

Annual migration estimates for the January 2025 year compared with the January 2024 year were: migrant arrivals: 155,300, down -31% (the highest decline on record). Migrant departures: 122,800, up +1%. 

Food prices increased 2.4 percent in the 12 months to February 2025, following a +2.3% increase in the 12 months to January 2025, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.   

The spark that emerged in the services sector at the start of the year has faded, signalling that economic recovery will be slow and uneven, as PSI fell 1.3 points in February.

That’s a wrap for this week!

Stay tuned for the next update

Did you miss the last weekly update?

Catch-up on the previous market update.