Weekly Market Update: Desperate Measures

Not Enough Bitcoin to go Around

Nvidia’s earnings report once again dazzled and stole the show as seismic shocks to the current global order went largely unnoticed.

But Gold noticed, making a record monthly close, as central banks continue to offload their U.S. dollars for the shiny metal like a Black Friday deal, signaling potential trouble ahead. 

The drama? 

It wasn’t that the U.S. Court of Appeals dealt an embarrassing blow to President Trump’s trade war, striking down most of his tariffs as overreach and landing him in yet another Supreme Court showdown. 

It also wasn’t that twenty leaders from the world’s rising powers were flexing their clout at the SCO Summit in China, boldly declaring the end of the Western hegemony – India ditching U.S. trade negotiations to cozy up with China and Russia. 

No, the drama is the visible staggering and stumbling of the West’s once-mighty empires, reduced to desperately groveling for bailouts to survive:

France, once Napoleon’s empire and a beacon of high culture in Europe, faces an IMF bailout as unchecked immigration and social unrest expose a decade of prioritizing social programs over solutions. Now facing a €3 trillion debt explosion! 

Britain, whose empire once spanned 25% of the globe, grapples with multi-decade high government debt and runaway bond yields, with IMF talks looming. Protests have erupted around the country as the Labor government approval rating fell to an all-time low of 11%.

And Germany, once a European powerhouse able to bounce back from any attempt to arrest its growth, is now shuttering factories due to an energy crisis largely of its own making. Forced to cut social programs to keep the country afloat, the IMF is just about at the German door! 

What the West is doing obviously isn’t working!

Trump’s tariffs have stumbled early in the race, and the U.S. is papering over some seismic faults of its own – nearly $74 trillion of unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare, about 250% of GDP – in addition to the ballooning national debt of $37 trillion.

The West is facing a sovereign debt crisis of an unprecedented scale as governments are now the biggest borrowers and the biggest spenders in the room – like a giant ponzi scheme, creating more debt to pay for their debt. Traditional monetary and fiscal tools and tricks are quickly becoming less effective and more desperate measures are on the way.

As old empires crumble and new powers rise, Bitcoin isn’t just a hedge – it’s a shelter against the seismic shocks that are reshaping the global order. Decentralized and unseizable, it’s beyond the grasp of central planners who manipulate currencies to prop up failing systems. No government can inflate it, freeze it or confiscate it! 

Capped at 21 million coins, Bitcoin is immune to central banks flooding markets with trillions of dollars of newly printed money. For example: if every one of America’s millionaires decided to buy just one Bitcoin, there wouldn’t be enough to go around – scarcity is its strength. 

Market sentiment has bounced back to: Greed

Crypto market moves: 

• A frustrating week as continued ‘big money’ selling pressure and broad market weakness pushed Bitcoin down to test the 20 week moving average below $108k before grinding back up. Markets are clearly awaiting the U.S. jobs report on Friday.
• Over $15 billion of shorts stand to be liquidated if Bitcoin breaks above $120k! 
• September is traditionally a tough month for crypto, and Polymarket has assigned a 49% chance of Bitcoin breaking back above $120k by the end of Q3.
• Bitcoin ETFs were largely flat with low volume inflows last week.
• Ethereum has held up relatively well as the ETH:BTC ratio remains just below 4% with continued whale reallocation – read more in the following section.
• The total crypto market cap is back at over $3.9 trillion as investor confidence is back in “greed” on the F&G index and Google Search volume are well down.
• The big winner of the week is POL (Polygon) +17.5%, as investors are responding positively to Polygon’s long-term vision, which includes the strategic shift from its MATIC token to the new POL token as part of its “Polygon 2.0” upgrade.
• The surprise mover of the week is SOL (Solana) +6.6%, the only top Altcoin finishing in the green on the last 7 day timeframe.
• The big loser of the week is ALGO (Algorand) -8.5%, as it struggles to break out of a long term slug.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space:

Bitcoin closed August at just over $108k, down 13% from its recent all-time high, prompting warnings of a potential cycle top. However, the U.S. summer is typically a weaker period for crypto and market peaks usually coincide with widespread euphoria, which we haven’t seen yet.

With U.S. M2 money supply growing at an annualised rate of 5.1% and the Fed’s rate cut decision looming, a weaker than expected labour report later this week could spark FOMO buying to fuel Bitcoin’s next rally. *Not financial advice.

Continued selling pressure from ‘big money’ spooked the markets again this week, as the same ‘whale’ offloaded another 2,000 BTC and scooped up nearly 50,000 ETH in return.

TeraHash has made an interesting case for why Bitcoin may be evolving from ‘digital gold’ to ‘productive capital’ as prices diverged sharply with the precious metal over the past week.

“Bitcoin has long been viewed as a store of value more than a usable asset, however it is now evolving into something more foundational that miners, treasuries and funds are building around”. Simply, a vault asset that earns yield isn’t digital gold anymore.

Google’s head of Web3 strategy outlined plans for a ‘Universal Ledger,’ the company’s in-development layer-1 blockchain called the Google Cloud Universal Ledger (GCUL), designed to be credibly neutral and compatible with Python-based smart contracts.

A senior Hong Kong official from the Securities and Futures Commission withdrew from the Bitcoin Asia conference this past weekend on advice not to engage with Eric Trump. Ouch! 

Another highlight was the spectacular drone show that lit up the sky with a giant Bitcoin logo.

The US government announced on Tuesday that it is publishing economic data on-chain to boost transparency for government spending – Chainlink was selected to provide data feeds from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Pyth was selected by the Department of Commerce to publish GDP data. Nice examples of real world applications.

The industry is abuzz with speculation that China may soften its stance on a Yuan-backed Stablecoin, but experts say that it would almost certainly circulate offshore, not in the mainland. This may align with Hong Kong’s newly enacted Stablecoin bill.

El Salvador has split the country’s 6,284 BTC reserve across 14 different addresses citing ‘quantum computing risk’. Until now, the holdings were kept in a single wallet address.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse praised Gemini’s new XRP-branded credit card on social media saying “what a time to be alive.” The Gemini Credit Card now includes a special XRP Edition, enabling users to receive up to 4% back in XRP on eligible purchases with no annual fee.

Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun has unveiled “Project Ascend,” an update it claims will finally put an end to ‘rug pulls’ on its platform by shifting creator rewards to scale with market cap and cutting fees as tokens mature to curb quick-flip churn. Good move!

In other crypto news…

• Trump Media and Technology Group has partnered with Crypto.com and a SPAC to launch a crypto treasury company stockpiling the CRO token.

• AAVE has launched Horizon which enables Stablecoin loans backed by tokenized U.S. Treasurys and institutional funds.

• The world’s largest Stablecoin, Tether, has announced plans to launch USDT on the Bitcoin blockchain using RGB protocol.

• Ethereum founder, Vitalik Buterin claims there is a “20% chance quantum computers break modern cryptography before the end of 2030”.

• JP Morgan believes that Bitcoin’s current price is “too low relative to gold” as volatility hits record lows, setting a fair value of $126,000 by year-end.

• “Killing Satoshi” is a newly announced conspiracy thriller from director Doug Liman, dramatising the mystery around the Bitcoin creator, with a planned 2026 release.

Swyftx Coming Soon to Easy Crypto

Swyftx is coming soon to Easy Crypto – bringing a wider range of cryptocurrencies, better fees, new trading tools, and much more. Check out a message from Swyftx CEO, Jason, on what this means for you and what’s next.

🔔 Don’t miss a beat! Follow us on Facebook or X and keep an eye out for the Swyftx banner on our homepage for the latest drops and updates!

🌎 Macro news TLDR: Bond market in trouble

Something troubling is brewing in Western bond markets. Long-term government bond yields are already high and climbing, even as central banks near the end of their rate-cutting cycles. 

Rising yields signal growing investor unease, as higher borrowing costs strain government budgets and hint at waning confidence in fiat systems.

Gold is flashing a warning! Foreign central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries, a historic shift reflecting eroding trust in the U.S. dollar’s dominance. 

This pivot underscores a global reassessment of the faith that underpins fiat currencies. Unlike ‘hard assets’ like gold and Bitcoin, government-issued fiat currencies are backed not by physical commodities but by the trust and creditworthiness of the issuing government. 

This trust hinges on a government’s ability to enforce legal tender and maintain economic stability through policies like taxation and monetary management. Government bonds, while critical for funding and stabilizing economies, do not directly back currencies but indirectly bolster their value by signaling fiscal health.

If the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates, as anticipated, the bond market could face significant ripples. Lower rates typically reduce U.S. Treasury yields, making them less attractive to global investors, which could accelerate capital flows into other ‘hard assets’. This may in turn depress U.S. bond prices, pushing yields even higher if demand wanes. 

These dynamics could amplify volatility, further eroding confidence in fiat-based debt systems.

Economic news from the Americas

The world’s largest company by market capitalization, Nvidia, reported their much anticipated Q2 results last week, beating both earnings and revenue – granting the greenlight to tech stocks for a continued upwards march. Can Nvidia keep this up with China hot on their heels?

Widespread adoption of generative AI is “beginning to have a significant and disproportionate impact on entry-level workers in the American labor market,” according to Stanford University researchers.

Most notably, workers between the ages of 22 and 25 have seen a 13% decline in employment since 2022.

And yet, this is what happened to ChatGPT usage when college ended for the year… 

Revised data showed U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualised 3.3% in the June quarter, beating a 3.1% forecast by Dow Jones. Recession now firmly in the review mirror?

The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled on Friday that President Trump overstepped his authority when imposing tariffs on almost every country in the world as part of his Liberation Day trade war, leaving his ‘reciprocal tariffs’ in limbo.

Trump has responded by saying that he will appeal the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court – he has requested an expedited hearing.

The U.S. labour statistics report is due out later this week and will likely cement the Fed’s rate cut decision for the next meeting on 17 Sep. Polymarket is currently showing an 83% chance of a 25 bps cut and 5% chance of a 50 bps cut.

While the U.S. looks to have dodged a recession, Canada may not be as lucky! Statistics Canada reported a GDP decline of 1.6% in June and for the third straight month, as manufacturing production slowed amid the ongoing U.S. trade war. 

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

The U.K. is on a sticky wicket as the cost of government debt has jumped to a 27-year high causing the 30 year bond yield to spike to 5.6% last week, piling pressure on further welfare cuts or tax increases later this year.

The Sunday Telegraph carried warnings from leading economists that Britain is heading towards a 1970s-style debt crisis, and an IMF bail out!

It’s not much better in Germany as Chancellor Merz has called for a reform of their social welfare spending saying, “the welfare state that we have today can no longer be financed with what we produce in the economy.” Yikes.

The Minister of Economics and Finance, issued a stark warning that France is facing a staggering €3 trillion ‘debt explosion’ and could soon be forced into seeking an IMF bailout as Emmanuel Macron’s government teeters on the edge of collapse. Making it a hat-trick.

The Trump administration suspended all military aid and funding to Ukraine, piling pressure on Kyiv to pursue peace talks with Vladimir Putin, as Russia continued to ramp up its assault. The Russia-Ukraine peace deal is nowhere in sight.

And in Asia Pacific…

Japan’s 30 year bond yields touched an all-time high last week of 3.2% on concerns about inflationary pressures from the likely restart of the U.S. Fed rate cutting cycle.

India and China are “development partners, not rivals”, agreed Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sunday, as they discussed ways to further improve trade ties amid global tariff uncertainty.

Over 20 world leaders gathered at a SCG regional security forum in China on the weekend, in a powerful show of solidarity and collective defiance amid growing Western pressure and Trump’s America First ambitions. The message was loud and clear: the Western hegemony over the world is officially over.

Indonesian authorities have ramped up security after deadly protests over economic hardship and financial perks for lawmakers escalated into violent anger against the nation’s police force.

Australia’s CPI for July surprised to the upside, jumping to 2.8% year on year, following a 1.9% gain in June. This could throw cold water on the RBA’s plans for further rate cuts over the coming months. Will we see the same in NZ?

Nationwide protests took place in many cities across Australia this past weekend calling for an end to mass migration. 

The latest quarterly RBNZ dashboard reveals that New Zealand’s five major banks now hold over 93% of all mortgage lending, the highest share since records began in 2018. Kiwibank, the only NZ-owned bank among them, continues to slowly grow its market share, reaching 7.8%.

Early KiwiSaver withdrawals hit a record high in July with members taking out more than $234.8 million as the consumer continued to feel the squeeze of the cost of living crisis.

That’s a wrap for this week!

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