Weekly Market Update: Rally or Another False Start?

UpTober is finally here

Picture this: the U.S. government, the world’s economic juggernaut, screeching to a grinding halt because Congress can’t stop squabbling over the budget. 

It’s like a family feud over who pays for dinner, except it shutters national parks, furloughs federal workers and costs billions – i.e. $11 billion in 2018-19 alone. 

Since the 1980s, these shutdowns have been a recurring soap opera, with 35-day cliffhangers (2018-19) and 16-day nail-biters (2013). Essential services limp along, but the rest? Paused. The economy stumbles, public trust wanes and the blame game rages. 

A looming shutdown could freeze and panic markets! But hold the gloom, crypto’s got its own script and it’s called “UpTober.” 

Despite Bitcoin’s dip and sideways grinding price action of late, some analysts are buzzing with optimism for UpTober, saying “we’re on the cusp of a MASSIVE Bitcoin breakout.”

Historical trends back the hype: October’s average 21.9% returns have earned it the “UpTober” crown. Even after a choppy September, the crypto market is set to finish the month above $4 trillion, and hopes of Altseason in Q4 are still alive and well! 

So, while Washington’s dysfunction threatens to dim the lights, crypto’s ready to flip the switch on a rally. Will UpTober’s optimism outshine the shutdown chaos? 

Grab your popcorn, this market’s about to get wild.

Market sentiment has rallied back to: Neutral

Crypto market moves: 

• Bitcoin dropped below $110k last week in a broad market sell-off, putting in a ‘higher low’ and recovering to close the week above $112k as Rektember comes to a close. 
• Over $320 million in shorts were liquidated in the latest price rally.
• Despite a rising hashrate, Bitcoin mining stocks have been strong performers in September, potentially indicating the bull market is still alive and well! 
• Ethereum ETFs saw nearly $800 million worth of outflows last week, the worst week since the funds began trading in July. Bitcoin ETF flows were relatively muted.
• The total crypto market cap is hovering around $4 trillion.
• The Fear & Greed index remained in “Fear” territory for most of last week, but has bounced back to “Neutral” this week.
• More than half of the top 100 Altcoins outperformed BTC in the last 90 days, giving hopes that Alt Season is still a possibility for Q4.
• Bitcoin dominance moved up slightly to 59%. 
• The big winner of the week is Quant (QNT) +8.9% on the release of QuantNet which provides new interoperability for TradFi and crypto.
• The big loser of the week (again) is Avalanche (AVAX) -11.1%, as it cools off from the recent price run up from institutional adoption.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space:

October is historically one of the strongest months for Bitcoin, averaging nearly +22% returns, but the looming U.S. government shutdown could throw a spanner into the works for the broader markets and further delay the Senate’s moves on the crypto market structure bill. Watch closely as it all unfolds in the coming days.

Deutsche Bank expects that central banks are likely to purchase Bitcoin, alongside gold, for the remainder of this decade as diversification away from the U.S. dollar accelerates. Huge!

Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken has closed a massive $500 million funding round at a staggering $15 billion valuation.

Stablecoin giant Tether, now one of the biggest privately held companies in the world, is in talks to raise as much as $20 billion in a private placement that could value the company at around $500 billion. 

Global financial services firm Morgan Stanley is preparing to launch crypto trading for retail customers through E-Trade in the first half of 2026, partnering with startup Zerohash for liquidity.

Coinbase has started a DeFi lending trial offering up to 10.8% yield on USDC.

The U.S. Senate Finance Committee has scheduled a hearing for 1 Oct to review how cryptocurrency should be taxed. Keep an eye on this one.

Chainlink announced a pilot with UBS Asset Management and Swift, the global financial messaging network, designed to allow banks to trigger on-chain transactions. 

Hyperdrive, a lending protocol on the Hyperliquid, has reported losses of nearly US$800 million after an exploit drained two liquidity pools.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy is showing no signs of slowing down, quietly adding 196 BTC to its stash last week taking total holdings to 640,031.

Singapore and the UAE have been ranked the world’s most crypto-obsessed nations.

FTX is set to start distributions this week, as creditors will receive $1.6 billion in the third major distribution since the exchange’s 2022 collapse, bringing some customers to 95% cumulative recovery rates.

Global M2 money supply continues to trend upwards, but the Bitcoin price chart with 80 day lag has diverged away in recent weeks. It has some catching up to do.

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🌎 Macro news TLDR: Alternative stores of value

The U.S. dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency, but its share of global reserves has steadily declined, from around 72% in 2001 to 58% in 2024.

It’s depreciating so quickly in fact, that according to the Fed’s own model, every 10% drop in the U.S. dollar results in a 30 basis point boost to inflation. And alternative stores of value like gold and Bitcoin are quickly becoming a perpetual ‘put option’ on the U.S. dollar.

If you make $100k USD a year, your income is now equivalent to less than that of a low-skilled worker in 1971, when the U.S. dollar was depegged from gold. Scary stuff!

Gold has not missed its time to shine, clocking 39 new all-time highs in 2025 so far, and on track for its best year since the late 1970s. 

Will Bitcoin follow suit?

Economic news from the Americas

President Trump delivered a scathing speech at the 80th U.N. General Assembly to criticise globalist ideology and international institutions, claiming the U.N. is ineffective and warning European leaders that rampant immigration and green energy are destroying their countries. He also dismissed climate change as “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.”

The U.S. economy grew faster than expected, GDP increased at an annualised rate of 3.8% in the June quarter, amid strong consumer spending and business investment, though momentum appears to be slowing as the effects of tariffs and policy uncertainty start to flow through:

Democrats and Republicans continue to clash over healthcare, federal job cuts and funding priorities, with no bipartisan agreement in sight. Vice President Vance has told reporters,“I think we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing.”

Polymarket is showing >80% chance of a U.S. government shutdown by 1 Oct.

The Bank of Labour Statistics has announced that it will delay releasing economic data, including Friday’s job report, in the case of a U.S. government shutdown. 

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

In a change of tact, President Trump said that he thinks Ukraine, with help from the European Union, could win back its territory from Russia and return the country to its original borders.

The European Union is mulling new plans to tweak the rules of enlargement in a fresh attempt to bypass Hungary’s persistent veto on Ukraine’s membership bid.

Following mounting global pressure, President Trump has said Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had agreed to a 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza. EU leaders welcomed the plan and have urged Hamas to accept it. Maybe this time?

And in Asia Pacific…

President Trump signed an executive order to acquire TikTok from Chinese company ByteDance and convert it into a fully American company, with a valuation of $14 billion.

Vice President Vance said “I feel very confident that we have successfully separated this company from TikTok global and actually made it so that we can control people’s data security.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia has held its cash rate steady at 3.6%, in a widely anticipated move, and after dropping it -25 bps at its previous review in August.

Solid and growing labour markets, shrinking budget deficits and CPI at 3.0% were all key factors in the decision.

ASB Bank chief economist has forecast “aggressive action” from the RBNZ meeting next week, predicting that the OCR will be cut to 2.25% by Christmas.

The NZ dollar has dropped to 15th spot of most traded currencies, overtaken by the Indian rupee and Mexican peso. 

That’s a wrap for this week!

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