Weekly Market Update: When the Music Stops

Bitcoin is a beacon of certainty

The global markets are stumbling out of a decades-long cocktail party, where nations binged on cheap debt and reckless spending and now they’re staggering home, bleary-eyed and disoriented, with a brutal hangover looming. 

In the U.S., long-term Treasury yields are spiking over 5% after a disastrous 20-year bond auction on May 21 flopped like a guest who drank too much and passed out on the couch. Investors, sobering up to the U.S.’s fiscal bender, are demanding higher yields to fund a government that’s piling on $4 trillion in new debt from Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” tax cuts, passed May 22, 2025. 

With the national debt lurching $2 trillion a year toward $40 trillion – interest payments are already slurping up nearly $1 trillion a year – with Trump and the bond market shouting at Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates. The U.S., long the life of the party, is now tripping over its own excess, with stocks soaring as if the tariff truce is a free round of drinks.

Across the Atlantic, the UK’s economy is like a guest who mixes whisky and gin, veering from hope to despair. Gilt yields hit a 27-year high of 5.65%, jacking up borrowing costs for a government already wobbly from 3.5% inflation and weak tax receipts. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is eyeing tax hikes, like a bartender cutting off an overserved patron. 

Europe, meanwhile, is trying to act sober, projecting cautious optimism despite renewed threats of 50% U.S. tariffs and its energy tab running high from the Russia proxy war. Germany’s clinging to its low debt-to-GDP ratio is like a lightweight nursing a single beer, but the ECB’s bracing for inflation and growth hiccups, knowing the party’s afterglow won’t last.

In Asia, China and Japan are like guests who stayed too long, now struggling to find their way. China’s economy is slurring, as markets hope rate cuts will revive a sluggish recovery, while Japan’s 30-year yields hit a 21-year peak as concerns about national debt mount. India, the upstart who paced itself, is emerging as the next growth market, its forex reserves slightly dented but its vibe upbeat, dodging the worst of the tariff hangover. 

Australia’s slashing rates to ease a cost-of-living crisis that’s squeezing households like a bar bill no one expected, but it’s likely to only stoke the already inflated housing market, a persistent hangover kept at bay by more hair-of-the-dog borrowing.

In summary, the global economy’s a mess of drunken missteps, with tariffs, deficits and policy blunders making the path home treacherous. Rising concerns about debt levels could cut this party short at any moment.

And when the music stops and the lights come on… will Bitcoin be one of the few left standing? 

In this chaotic stagger, Bitcoin shines like the sober guest who planned ahead. Soaring to new all-time highs above $110,000, its 21-million-coin cap is a sober driver’s discipline. Its decentralized, peer-to-peer network keeps it free from the ‘punch bowl spikers’ – central bankers and politicians – who fueled the party’s excesses.

As countries reel from decades of living beyond their means, paying the price in market volatility and fiscal pain, Bitcoin stands firm, a relative beacon of certainty in a world of drunken regret, proving scarcity and independence can outlast even the wildest bender.

Market sentiment is holding firmly in: Greed

Highlights this week: 

• Bitcoin was on fire this past week breaking to new all-time highs multiple times with a new weekly record close of $109,068.
• The German government’s decision to sell 50,000 BTC at $54k has cost them $2.8 billion in missed profits at current levels.
• Investor sentiment is holding strong in ‘greed’ zone as Google search volume is starting to pick up again showing growing retail interest.
• BTC key RSI momentum indicator continues to strengthen as Bitcoin market dominance holds strong over 64%.
• Bitcoin ETFs added 25,000 Bitcoin last week with $2.75 billion in inflows.
• Most of the market is in the green for the week as top Altcoins started a move up again.
• The surprise move of the week goes to SUI down -XX% on fears from the Cetus (DEX) hack and subsequent centralisation concerns (more in following section). 
• The big winners of the week are INJ and WLD both up +26.2%.
• The big loser this week is SONIC down -11.1% after a complex upgrade from FTM. 

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more. 

Highlights from the crypto space:

The market cap of the world’s first and biggest cryptocurrency surpassed that of Amazon again last week on ‘Bitcoin Pizza Day’ – attracting even more attention and pushing through to multiple new all-time highs.

The Bitcoin options market spiked to an all-time high alongside the asset’s climb as open interest stood at around $65 billion. Based solely on traders’ positioning, market data suggests that Bitcoin’s price could rally into a range between $116,000 and $120,000. Always DYOR.

Hyperliquid trader James Wynn had another wild week – first closing a ‘long’ position worth $1.25 billion at a loss and flipping ‘short’ after Trump’s 50% EU tariff announcement – and then closing out his ‘short’ position for a massive loss when the Bitcoin started rallying again on news that EU tariffs were delayed. Ouch! He’s back in with a ‘long’ position again (at time of writing).

The narrative is changing! Bitcoin volatility is trending down proving that it’s no longer just a speculative asset, but a credible addition to a balanced portfolio offering diversification:

Against all odds, the Senate has advanced the GENIUS Act on a bipartisan vote – expected to be signed into law in the coming days. This new Stablecoin regulation bill is a move forward in bridging crypto and tradFi as it mandates issuers to fully back tokens with U.S. Treasuries or dollar equivalents and enforces anti-money-laundering rules.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the world’s biggest economy is “going big” on digital assets – highlighting the growing importance of Stablecoins in the financial system and predicting that they could generate up to $2 trillion in demand for U.S. treasuries.  

Hong Kong also passed a new Stablecoin bill last week to expand its cryptocurrency licensing regime as more governments recognize the digital asset – issuers will need to comply with proper management of asset reserves and segregation of client funds.

The Texas House of Representatives passed the third reading of a bill that seeks to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state – the Governor is expected to sign it into law. Fingers crossed!

Cetus (DEX), built on the Sui blockchain network, confirmed $162 million of the $220 million stolen in a hack has been frozen: “A large number of validators identified the addresses with the stolen funds and are ignoring transactions on those addresses until further notice.” This has put decentralisation in the spotlight and caused a sell off of Sui-based tokens.

The Bitcoin 2025 conference kicks off in Las Vegas this week with an impressive line up of speakers including Vice President JD Vance, Eric Trump, Michael Saylor, Adam Back, Ross Ulbright and Peter Schiff – we expect the bulls will be out in full force, except for Peter of course. 

In other crypto news…

• Top TRUMP coin holders went to dinner with President Trump last week as Democrat Senators called the competition “a blatant example of pay-to-play corruption”.

• Billionaire Jack Dorsey says Square POS systems will integrate Bitcoin Lightning “soon.”

• Cardone Capital, a real estate investment firm with over $5 billion in assets under management, launched a hybrid 10X Miami River Property + Bitcoin Fund.

• An Italian tourist was kidnapped and allegedly dangled from the fifth floor of a Manhattan townhouse in an attempt to steal his Bitcoin.

• Bybit, the world’s second-largest crypto exchange by trading volume, has entered the tradFi space by launching trading of global stocks using USDT Stablecoin.

• XRP continues its sluggish performance as the SEC has delayed a decision on ETF applications.

• Michael Saylor hints at buying the Bitcoin dip, again.

• Satoshi Nakamoto now holds $120 billion worth of $BTC, making him the 11th richest person in the world!

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🌎 Macro news TLDR: How to make any sense of all this?

Over the past week, the markets have sounded out a very confused signal…

Stocks are rising like Trump’s trade war is over and not just on a 90 day pause. Yields are spiking in key economies like we’ve dodged a US lead global recession. But gold is holding strong like the trade wars and regional conflicts are just about to heat up! Confused yet… it keeps going…

Oil is staying down like the recession is just beginning. The DXY is falling again like rate cuts are coming and inflation is behind us. While Bitcoin is surging to new all time highs like liquidity and inflation is about to run wild. Phew! 

How to make any sense of all this?

The answer is… in the short term, you probably can’t. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens next.

Economic news from the Americas

U.S. equities took a hit late last week off the back of a disappointing auction of 20-year Treasury Bonds that sent yields climbing to fresh highs – the 10 year holding above 4.5% and the 30 year spiking over 5.0% putting further pressure on borrowers.

China sold off $18.9 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries between February and March, while other strategic allies maintained or increased their holdings. 

President Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Tax Bill” narrowly passed through the House last week and is headed for the Senate – if passed, the plan would make permanent the 2017 tax cuts from Trump’s first term, remove tax on tips and overtime and enhance business deductions costing $4 trillion over 10 years with significant benefits for high-income households.

International travel spending in the United States is expected to decline by 7%, or $12.5 billion, in 2025 as political issues and a relatively strong dollar is causing foreign visitors to opt for other destinations, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council.

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

The European Commission has published its 2025 economic forecast, showing that the EU economy started this year stronger than anticipated and projecting it to keep growing slowly in 2025 as elevated uncertainty from global trade tensions and climate-related disasters pose downside risks.

It’s not so rosy news in the U.K. as higher-than-expected government borrowing has increased the prospect of higher taxes – analysts predict that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will struggle to meet her own self-imposed rules on spending and borrowing.

President Trump spooked the markets again on Friday when he announced a new 50% tariff on the EU, saying that he is not happy with the pace of negotiations – but then on Sunday agreed to delay implementation until 9 July.

Russian President Putin calls to put the West in a ‘chokehold’ saying “They’re trying to strangle us and we should reciprocate” – watch this space!

And in Asia Pacific…

China’s economy showed signs of slowing in April as President Trump’s trade war took a toll, with retail sales, property and investment coming in weaker than economists had forecast.

Japan’s economy shrank for the first time in a year, contracting 0.2% in the March quarter as exports declined sharply – while core inflation accelerated to 3.5% in April, ahead of expectations.

Longest-dated Japanese bond yields soared to all-time highs last week after a poor debt auction – causing a real headache for the Bank of Japan as it attempts to exit from a decade of easy monetary policy. 

Despite persistent trade and border frictions, India’s Reserve Bank has published a cautiously optimistic outlook saying “the country stands well-positioned to navigate the ongoing global headwinds.” 

In a second cut to rates this year, The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the OCR by 0.25% last week (to 3.85%), causing the AUD to weaken but providing some further relief to home loan borrowers.

In NZ, during April goods exports rose by $1.5 billion (+25 percent) to $7.8 billion and goods imports rose by $112 million (+1.8 percent), to $6.4 billion – showing the effects of Trump’s trade war.

The RBNZ’s big new survey has revealed that Kiwi businesses are expecting inflation to rise across all the time periods featured:

All eyes on the RBNZ this week as they meet to make another OCR decision – a second bank, after the Co-operative Bank, has jumped the gun on cutting rates ahead of a widely anticipated 25 basis points cut.

That’s a wrap for this week!

Stay tuned for the next update.

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