Weekly Crypto Market Update: Whale Games & Speculation

Markets rebound after largest crypto flash-crash

World Mental Health Day hit traders harder than a margin call, reminding everyone: over-leveraged portfolios are a one-way ticket to therapy. 

The culprit? Not the overhyped AI bubble, but a perfectly timed Trump tweet that sparked a $2 trillion stock market wipeout and crypto’s worst single-day sell-off, ever. 

Coincidence? Or big money flexing with uncanny precision?

Markets bounced back fast, but this feels like a dress rehearsal for a bigger black swan sometime down the road (not financial advice). Hint: the AI narrative has been propping up an estimated 40% of U.S. revenue, and if the IMF’s warnings about an AI bubble burst come true, we’re staring down an instant recession.

Gold, meanwhile, has added $10 trillion in market cap in 12 months – up 55% this year! But is the ‘debasement trade’ getting too hot as RSI hits a record 91.8? And could BTC stand to benefit from a capital rotation?

Bitcoin has been stuck for more than 200 weeks without a new high against gold! As the Maxis love to chant, “gold runs first, Bitcoin runs harder.” If true, then Bitcoin has a massive test just ahead, and before the next bear market sets in.

With Bitcoin adoption now at 4.7% globally – think Internet circa 1999 – we’re still early. Raoul Pal’s calling for ‘more time’ and a new 5-year cycle, predicting a Bitcoin peak in Q2 2026. 

The U.S. Fed’s 10-month rate cut pause may just stretch this bull run a bit longer, or the post institutional adoption era may have officially broken the cyclical paradigm – only time will tell. But crypto’s rollercoaster vibes could also spook new adoption and tarnish safe haven credibility.

Enter Eric Trump, crypto’s cryptic cheerleader, hyping an “unbelievable” Q4. His last predictions? Crash, then pump. Now he’s back, proclaiming the Trumps are “all in on crypto.” What does he know that we don’t? 

Markets will do what markets will do… don’t fight the tide – master the game! Dodge the whale traps, size your bets smartly, and live to trade another day.

Market sentiment crashed into Extreme Fear before recovering to: Fear

Crypto market moves: 

• $20 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated in what is being called the largest single-day liquidation event in history – 9x bigger than LUNA and Covid crashes!
• Some Altcoins, including ATOM and IOTX, briefly crashed to zero on Binance.
• Top Altcoins weren’t spared the panic, as SUI crashed from $3.4 to $0.56; $APT from $5 to $0.75; $SEI from $0.28 to $0.07; $LINK from $22 to $8; $ADA went from $0.8 to $0.3.
• Around $US400 billion was wiped off the value of the total crypto market, but it has since hovered back around the $4 trillion mark.
• Bitcoin dominance spiked over 63%, but has since fallen back to 59%. 
• Polymarket is showing an 18% chance that Bitcoin reaches over $130k in October.
• Despite the chaos, Bitcoin ETF inflows were near record highs last week at $2.7 billion and ETH at $500 million (pulled down by a big outflow on Friday).
• The Fear & Greed index crashed to Extreme Fear before slowly recovering.
• Google search volume has continued to spike up, showing growing retail engagement.
• Most of the top 100 coins are still deep in the red on the 7 day timeframe and the AltSeason Index has dropped to 36. 
• The big winner of the week is ZEC (ZCash) +89.5% and holding relatively strong through all the chaos. Impressive!
• The big loser of the week is DOT (Polkadot) -22.3%.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space

President Trump on Friday announced new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports sparking a massive crypto flash-crash, with Bitcoin plummeting $20,000 in the largest single-day drop in its history.

Retail traders bore the brunt, with reports of million-dollar portfolios obliterated amid cascading liquidations. The market convulsed, then swiftly rebounded, clawing back much of its losses.

The entire event may have been one big misunderstanding between Trump and Xi – but the crash has sparked renewed allegations of market manipulation and insider trading – as an anonymous trader opened a heavily leveraged position just minutes before the sell-off and then closed it with impeccable timing, raking in $200 million. The most significant “rug pull” history?

Forbes revealed that President Trump is now one of America’s biggest Bitcoin holders with an estimated $870 million exposure.

The CEO of Crypto.com has called on regulators to investigate the crypto exchanges that contributed the most to the massive $20 billion liquidations.

Founder of Ethena Labs confirmed that the USDe ‘depeg’ on Binance was due to an internal oracle issue and not underlying collateral or the token itself. PTSD from Terra LUNA anyone?

Binance reportedly paid out around $283 million to users of three assets that depegged on the exchange during Friday’s crypto crash: Ethena’s stablecoin USDe, Binance-issued Solana liquid staking token BNSOL, and Wrapped Beacon liquid staking token WBET.

Square launched a new feature enabling local businesses to accept Bitcoin at the point of sale and hold it in an integrated wallet. Square founder, Jack Dorsey, also called for the introduction of tax-free status for ‘everyday’ Bitcoin payments, saying “we want Bitcoin to be everyday money ASAP.”

Citibank predicts the Bitcoin bull run will continue through to late 2026, breaking from the traditional 4-year cycle structure.

And BitMEX founder, Arthur Hayes echoed that sentiment saying a 70% Bitcoin crash is “off the table” as the 4-year cycle is dead! Are they right?

At least 31 crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications have been filed with the SEC in the last 2 months, two third of those in the month of October to date. 

Other notable crypto news:

• Malaysia has approved the first Islamic Digital Bank using Stablecoins.

• The NYSE owner has made a $2B investment in crypto prediction market Polymarket, in a deal that could value the platform at up to $10B.

• Luxembourg has won bragging rights as the first Eurozone Country to invest 1% of its Sovereign Wealth Fund into Bitcoin.

• Bitcoin OG Roger Ver has reached a deal with prosecutors, agreeing to pay $48M to settle tax fraud charges.

• The Department of Justice has seized $15 billion worth of BTC held by a man who oversaw a massive “pig butchering” fraud operation based in Cambodia.

• Australia’s crypto demographics have shifted rapidly, with older “Boomers” now among the leading adopters of digital assets, according to a latest report from BTC Markets.

• Just ahead of the crash, the U.K.’s biggest retail investment platform Hargreaves Lansdowne has urged traders to exercise caution on cryptocurrencies.

• The CEO of BlackRock said “there is a role for crypto in the same way there is a role for gold, it’s an alternative.” He gets it!

• After last week’s significant sell-off, MARA Holdings bought 400 Bitcoins for $46.29 million from the liquidity provider FalconX.

• CNBC says Bitcoin’s latest surge has created 70,000 crypto millionaires over the past year. Maybe a few less after this past weekend!

From the One NZ Warriors to five Super Rugby Pacific teams: Swyftx Backs the Heart of Kiwi Sport

Swyftx made history as New Zealand’s first ever crypto sponsor of a professional sports team after signing a multi-year deal with the One NZ Warriors.

Now, we’re also becoming an official partner of five Super Rugby Pacific teams, strengthening our commitment to Kiwi sport, community and digital innovation – and taking blockchain to the masses.

🌎 Macro news TLDR: X

On Friday, the U.S. stock market erased over $2 trillion, while crypto suffered its worst single-day sell-off ever. Meanwhile, gold and silver stole the show, closing the week near all-time highs above $4,000 and $50 per ounce, respectively.

With global liquidity surging, central banks easing, and the U.S. dollar weakening, the stage is set for hard assets to outperform.

Gold is outpacing the S&P 500 this century, leaving stocks in the dust as real assets shine amid rising inflation. 

Over the years, the gold and silver markets have faced similar allegations of market manipulation. The imbalance is stark: for every ounce of physical gold, 109 paper ounces exist; for silver, it’s 360 to 1. What happens when the music stops and people realise that their safe haven was fractionalised? 

Bitcoin beware: as big players financialize limited-supply assets, the squeeze is on.

The real question: how much speculation can the economy handle?

Economic news from the Americas

President Trump announced new tariffs of 100% on imports from China and export controls on “any and all critical software”, starting on 1 Nov.

This came in retaliation for new controls that China imposed on exports of rare earth minerals essential for high-tech industries including defense and semiconductors, currently holding around 70% of the global supply.

Trade war fears were reignited and market panic saw $2 trillion wiped from the U.S. stock market in just 24 hours. Reminding us how Trump can move markets with a few words!

Once the dust had settled, President Trump casually posted on social media: “don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

All of this was a big distraction from the real domestic crisis, as President Trump again threatened plans to use the ongoing government shutdown (now entering its third week) to permanently cut programs popular with Democrats.

Fed Chair Powell is set to deliver a market update this week as the U.S. is still flying blind without official data. Polymarket is predicting 94% chance of a further 25 bps rate cut at the next 29 Oct meeting. 

The U.S. purchased Argentinian pesos and finalised a $20 billion currency swap framework with Argentina’s central bank in a deal aimed at shoring up the country’s faltering finances. The big and only question is “why?” 

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

The war in Gaza has finally ended and the Middle East is going to “normalise” according to President Trump. Hamas has released all living Israeli hostages as world leaders gather to discuss the next steps toward peace.

Raining on the parade, Former Russian President Medvedev commented: “releasing Israel hostages and Palestinian prisoners is a good thing… but it won’t solve anything until a full-fledged Palestinian state is established… the war will continue. Everyone understands this”. 

German exports to the US fell to a 4-year low in August, hit by Trump tariffs. Shipments to the country dropped 20% from a year earlier, marking the fifth straight month of decline.

French President Macron named Sebastien Lecornu as prime minister, reappointing him after he quit the job last week, hoping the loyalist can draw enough support from a deeply divided parliament to pass a 2026 budget.

President Trump is expected to meet Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at the White House later this week. Another peace deal or changing gears in the Russia:Ukraine war? 

And in Asia Pacific…

China tightened its controls on rare earth exports last week, ahead of an expected meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Trump. Then on Sunday doubled down by saying “we are not afraid of a trade war with the United States.” Yikes!

Australian mining giant, BHP Billiton struck a groundbreaking agreement with China to settle 30% of its iron ore spot trading in Chinese yuan instead of U.S. dollars. Set to begin in Q4 2025.

The estimated number of NZ citizens departing long-term has declined steadily to 5,604 in August, which was the lowest number in any month since Nov last year. More NZ citizens are still departing long term than arriving, but the estimated net loss has declined.

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector again remained just below expansion levels for September, with a seasonally adjusted PMI of 49.9 (below 50 is declining). And the services sector is still struggling along, reporting 48.3 in September.

Hot on the heels of the double OCR cut, hopeful vendors have surged into the housing market in September, with the number of new listings on Trade Me Property up 24% compared to August, and up 5.9% compared to September last year.

The RBNZ will ease mortgage lending limits from 1 Dec, allowing banks to lend more to low-deposit borrowers: owner-occupiers with under 20% deposits rising from 20% to 25%, and investors with under 30% deposits rising from 5% to 10%. 

That’s a wrap for this week!

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