Weekly Market Update: Let the Good Times Roll

 Bitcoin is breaking records in UpTober!

Flying blind without official U.S. data due to the government shutdown, the markets have thrown caution to the wind – the wild party rages on, but the floor is cracking beneath the revelry.

Shanaka Anslem Perera’s recent post on X cuts through the noise succinctly:

Stocks up 40%, gold at $4,000, Bitcoin at $125,000, and the dollar down 10% … this isn’t growth, it’s a flight from fiat. The Fed is cutting rates into inflation, printing credibility while calling it policy.

When gold, Bitcoin, equities, and real estate all rise together, it’s not a bull market … it’s monetary panic in slow motion. Asset prices are screaming what officials won’t say: the denominator is dying.

The bottom 50% now holds 2.5% of U.S. wealth. This is not a boom. It’s the endgame of a system priced in paper and powered by illusion.

Translation: the markets are a runaway train, fueled by a cocktail of denial and desperation. Enjoy the ride but don’t miss your station! 

We saw hints of this same sentiment in a Bloomberg report about Bitcoin’s all-time high this past weekend, claiming that the U.S. Government shutdown has pushed investors to Bitcoin as a “safe-haven asset.” 

Institutional inflows are powering this surge, signaling a tectonic narrative shift from a ‘bet on future gains’ to a frantic escape from a crumbling monetary foundation. And something seems to be shifting in the collective subconscious as the public are squinting through the fog of official reassurances.

When nations borrow their way to the brink of a sovereign debt crisis, there is only one of two options left: a spectacular default (not popular with politicians) or devalue the fiat currency into oblivion.   

In the second scenario, the average person needs to get ahead of the money printers by buying real things that grow in value ahead of the real inflation rate. Savings in a bank account are just not going to cut it. And, maybe, that is why we are seeing massive inflows into risk-on assets and rare commodities.

A decade ago, if someone predicted gold would soar past $4,000 an ounce and Bitcoin would exceed $125,000, you’d brace for global chaos – riots, regional wars, runaway inflation and even collapsing governments. And, here we are.

Let the good times roll!

Bring on the gains… But a sobering question to ponder: what does the world look like if/when Gold hits $10,000 and Bitcoin $500,000? 

Are you ready for this type of reality? Or will you be celebrating on an economic funeral pyre? 

Market sentiment has rallied to: Greed

Crypto market moves: 

• Crypto continued to rally through the U.S. government shutdown, as Bitcoin hit a new all-time high over $126k.
• Over $100 million of shorts were liquidated in the rally!
• Bitcoin balance on exchanges has fallen to a 6-year low.
• Institutional money is moving the market, as Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.2 billion in inflows last week in the second highest week on record.
• Most of the top 100 coins are in the ‘green’ on the 7 day timeframe.
• The Fear & Greed index spiked to “Greed” and Google Search volumes have turned up, but the expected level of retail FOMO is still lacking somewhat.
• The Bitcoin monthly RSI has powered back over the 70 level. 
• And the total crypto market cap is hovering around $4.3 trillion and pushing new highs.
• As BTC leads the way, dominance is steady below 60%, hopes of Altseason 3.0 are still alive but impatience is growing.
• The big winner of the week is Zcash (ZEC) +72% as social media chatter sparked a buying frenzy.
• The surprise mover of the week is BNB (Binance Coin) +31.7%, moving into top 3 by market cap position ahead of XRP.
• The big loser of the week is Flare (FLR) -7.5%, as it cools off from the prior week’s rally.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space

UpTober has so far lived up to its name, sparking a rally right out of the gates and one that is being led by institutional inflows as retail investors are still largely MIA.

The crypto market seems unphased by the uncertainty of the U.S. government shutdown (entering its second week) and is perhaps even capitalising on the flight to safety trade.

$6 billion Digital Real Estate giant Opendoor announced they will accept Bitcoin and crypto payments for homes, tapping into a crypto-wealthy buyers who have accumulated large holdings but face limited options for deploying digital assets in traditional markets.

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce is urging Tokenised Products to proactively communicate with the agency, emphasizing the complexity of how tokenized assets will interact with TradFi.

The CEO of Robinhood claims tokenization of real-world assets, from stocks to real estate, will spread to financial markets around the world, saying “tokenization is like a freight train. It can’t be stopped, and eventually it’s going to eat the entire financial system.”

Citi Group has revised its 2030 stablecoin forecasts upward to a $1.9 trillion base case and $4 trillion bull case, driven by regulatory clarity and accelerating institutional adoption.

Bridge’s Open Issuance platform allows businesses to launch and manage a custom Stablecoin in just a few days. Bridge handles all the backend including reserve management, security, liquidity and GENIUS-ready compliance.

Circle, issuer of USDC Stablecoin, is reportedly exploring ‘reversible transactions’ to help recover funds from fraud and hacks, which appears at odds to one of crypto’s founding principles of decentralised and immutable transactions.

Charlie Lee, founder of Litecoin, made a shocking statement this week, saying he regrets creating Litecoin and he should have just bought and held Bitcoin instead. Mic drop.

1 BTC now = 1 kg of Gold.

Other crypto news:

• Avalanche Treasury Co has struck a $675 million merger deal to form AVAX Digital Asset Treasury.

• Sui Group Holdings plans to launch two stablecoins on the Layer 1 blockchain: suiUSDe, which will provide yield to holders, and USDi, which will not pay yield to holders.

• Coinbase has partnered with Samsung Galaxy to offer 75M+ users in the U.S. free access to Coinbase One.

• JP Morgan has said that Bitcoin could hit $165k before year end.

• Non-profit GiveDirectly is piloting a UBI program in New York providing $12,000 in USDC Stablecoin to low-income residents through Coinbase funding, testing whether using digital assets can streamline aid distribution.

• Ripple’s CTO, and popular crypto icon, David Schwartz, has announced his departure from the role after 13 years of service.

• S&P Global plans to launch a new benchmark index, The S&P Digital Markets 50 Index, that tracks a wide range of digital assets and blockchain-related companies.

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🌎 Macro news TLDR: Party while the music is playing, but…

Bitcoin and gold both continue to surge to record highs against the U.S. dollar. Gold crossing $4,000 USD an ounce for the first time ever! The dramatic loss in purchasing power is pushing everyday people into second jobs and speculative investments just to keep up.

It’s not that gold and Bitcoin are going up, it’s that the denominator is rapidly being debased.

Equity markets, once a reliable gauge of economic health, are now detached from reality, soaring to new highs almost weekly despite rising unemployment, persistent inflation and strained consumers. There is a growing disconnect between what we see on Wall Street and what is happening on Main Street.

This unfolds against a backdrop of a U.S. government shutdown entering its second week, locked in partisan gridlock with no resolution in sight, escalating political tensions, and a more than $2 trillion annual budget deficit adding to $37 trillion of national debt.

In addition, the current AI mania is driving risky bets on companies with vague plans and lofty growth promises, inflating sky-high valuations despite struggles to monetize massive investments needed to match AI’s rapid advancements and soaring energy costs.

Google searches for “AI bubble” are near record highs!

Goldman Sachs CEO has issued a warning, hailing AI’s potential but cautioning investors to temper their enthusiasm, predicting a likely stock market “drawdown” within the next two years. Meanwhile, markets are banking on continued easy money from rate cuts and stimulus, throwing caution to the wind in hopes of prolonging the rally.

Party while the music is playing, but keep an eye on the DJ and edge closer to the exit. 

*not financial advice

Economic news from the Americas

The S&P 500 closed at a record high of over $6,700 last Wednesday as traders are hopeful that the U.S. federal government shutdown would be brief and/or have little impact on the economy.

Polymarket is telling a different story, showing >70% chance that the government shutdown will last until at least 15 October.

Private payrolls saw their biggest decline in over two years in September, a further sign of a weakening labour market, as companies shed 32,000 jobs when expectations were for an increase of 45,000. The official jobs report has been delayed due to the government shutdown.

OpenAI and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have reached a deal that could see Sam Altman’s company take a 10% stake in the chipmaker, sending the stock up 23.71% on Monday.

OpenAI’s deals with Nvidia and AMD, illustrate a circular flow of capital within the AI ecosystem where investments lead to hardware purchases, which in turn support valuations and potentially fuel further investments. Aka infinite money glitch. Interestingly enough my AI search brought up the name Charles Ponzi… you do you!

Oracle stock slipped 3% on Tuesday, after a report that raised questions about the company’s plans to buy billions of Nvidia chips to rent as a cloud provider to clients like OpenAI.

Forbes reported that Elon Musk has become the first person to reach a net worth of $500 billion.
President Trump’s appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran has called for more aggressive rate cuts of up to 50bps at the next meeting on 29 October. FedWatch is currently showing >90% chance of a 25 bps cut.

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

Annual inflation in the Eurozone rose to 2.2% in September, up from 2.0% in August, which was in line with expectations, driven largely by food and services.

France’s new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has resigned just 27 days into his appointment, plunging the country into a fresh political crisis and sending French bond yields higher and their stock market lower. Crypto OG Arthur Hayes had plenty to say on France, none of it good. 

Russia’s Putin said the prospect of the U.S. supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine would not change the situation on the battlefield, but warned it would mark a “new stage of escalation.”

Mass protests have erupted around the world, including a reported 250,000 people in Amsterdam, as Gaza peace talks begin in Egypt.

And in Asia Pacific…

The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Tuesday hiked its forecast for global trade growth in 2025, but warned the outlook for 2026 had deteriorated. Predicting that 2025 trade volume growth would stand at 2.4%, up sharply from a previous estimate of 0.9% in August.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the U.S. must win the AI race with China so the future is built on American technology. 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index jumped over 4% to hit a record high on Monday after the country’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected staunch conservative Sanae Takaichi as its new leader, positioning her to become the country’s first female prime minister.

The Japanese 30 year bond yield has also spiked to a record high of 3.29%. Yields soar as the currency plummets:

It just got easier to buy a first home in Australia after further changes to their First Home Guarantee, which allows eligible first-home buyers to purchase a home with a 5% deposit and no lender’s mortgage insurance, including the removal of annual quotas and income caps and significantly increased property price thresholds. Throwing more fuel on the fire.

Deloitte Australia will issue a partial refund to the federal government after admitting that artificial intelligence was used in the creation of a $440k report that was littered with errors.

Back in NZ, a closely watched business survey pointed to a possible 50 point cut to the OCR, citing falling business confidence after the recent shock GDP numbers. And the call was good, as the RBNZ confirmed their decision to ‘double dip’ with a 50 bps cut. Some good news for mortgage holders.

Adrian Orr, former RBNZ Governor, will pocket an additional $400k to extend his banking industry restraint of trade, pushing his total year of departure payouts to over $1 million. Time for retirement?

That’s a wrap for this week!

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