Weekly Market Update: A Precarious Position

It’s like the market is sending out drunk messages again: “I love you, I hate you, let’s do this, no wait, I’m out.”

One minute Michael Burry is loading up the mother of all AI shorts, confidently proclaiming that the circular tech economy is a glitter-dusted ponzi about to pop – then days later he announces the folding of his fund and mutters, “my estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets.” Translation: even the guy who saw 2008 coming can’t make sense of this current fiasco anymore.

Meanwhile Warren Buffett, the Oracle who’s been telling anyone with ears that stocks are “priced for perfection,” is sitting on $350 billion of dry powder… and then YOLO-drops $4.3 billion into Google after a historic run up to $3.5 trillion market cap. Twenty years he waited. Twenty! Either the greatest investor alive just ‘rang the bell’ at the top, or he finally found a bargain in the everything-bubble. Pick one, because both can’t be true and my brain hurts.

AI hysteria is still in full bloom: bubble or internet 2.0? World-changer or world-ender? Nobody seems to know, but everyone is yelling and speculating – meanwhile job openings in the real economy just fell off a cliff, and the financial markets are still high on hopium and record valuations. The Fed’s clearly behind the curve on rate cuts, but now signalling that they may slam on the brakes because they can’t see the data. Sounds like denial! 

Then there’s classic Trump, the self-proclaimed “peace president,” who is amassing a military build up around Venezuela – y’know, the country sitting on more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia – blasting “drug boats” without bothering Congress for permission or a plan. Totally normal behavior for a guy who promised to end all the wars, right?

When Trump and his ever-opportunistic son Eric triumphantly declared 2025 would be “incredible” for crypto, they weren’t wrong – they just forgot to mention that the “incredible” part was the hundreds of millions they personally pocketed.

The crypto markets now hang in a precarious position. Perma-bulls are still stubbornly calling for $250k Bitcoin, while OG Arthur Hayes snuck Zcash into his #2 bags and quietly dumped the rest of his Altcoins. OG Whales are still sprinting for the exits while retail tries to avoid more losses or piles into the next shiny thing, privacy-coins. 

Raoul Pal insists that it’s not the four-year cycle that is driving Bitcoin, but the business cycle. Cool story, except the 6 Oct all-time high hit literally on the four-year dot (1,064 days after the last halving). Coincidence? Maybe. But at this point only a mighty rebound over the coming weeks and months could validate this thesis.

The post-GFC playbook has been burned into every trader’s mind: buy every dip, V-shape recovery guaranteed. It works like magic, until the one time that it doesn’t! Bitcoin can stomach multiple 20-30% pull backs in a real bull market, sure. But the tricky part is spotting when the train’s about to run itself off the cliff while everyone’s still cheering “to the moon!”

We might be deep in the ‘complacency stage’ that typically follows a market top: the part where HODLers clutch pearls and whisper “it’s just a healthy breather,” as risk quietly tilts to the vertical downside. But bull markets don’t usually die in fear – they die when everyone’s euphoric and fully invested! 

So here’s the million-dollar question: are we walking into the greatest contrarian buy of our lifetime… or the opening act of another soul-crushing 80% bear market? 

Place your bets, right size them accordingly, and always DYOR. Because when the music finally stops, the only thing guaranteed to be louder than a crash will be the sound of people insisting they “knew it all along.”

Market sentiment has been hammered down to: Extreme Fear

Crypto market moves: 

• In a wild week that saw panic selling, panic buying and even panic hodling, risk off sentiment pushed Bitcoin briefly below $90k for the first time in 7 months.
• Bitcoin closed the week just over $94k but below the crucial 50w MA at $103k that is typically considered the bull market support band. 
• Leverage was wiped out again and again, multiple $1 billion liquidations – as open interest hit record lows.
• ETFs were panic selling huge amounts of BTC reaching $2 billion last week.
• The total crypto market cap is down more than $1.1 trillion from recent highs.
• From a TA perspective, Bitcoin entered another “death cross” on the daily timeframe, where the 50MA crossed below the 200MA – historically considered a bearish signal, recent occurrences have coincided with a short-term rebound – is this time different?
• Polymarket is showing just 2% chance that BTC will hit $125k in Nov.
• Bitcoin weekly RSI momentum indicator is down to 39 and below the typical bull market level of 45; as BTC dominance sits just below 60%.
• 31 of the top 100 Altcoins outperformed Bitcoin in the last 100 days, slightly up. 
• The Fear & Greed index has fallen to “Extreme Fear” at a 6 month low.
• The big winner of the week is ZEC (Zcash) +32% as privacy coin FOMO continues.
• The big loser of the week is SUI (Sui) -18.2% as investors move to reduce risk.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space

Bitcoin faced relentless selling pressure that has driven the price briefly below $90k, erasing all gains from this year to date – out performed by the S&P. Crypto market sentiment is at a six-month low on continued market bubble fears and liquidity issues as the end of the U.S. government shutdown and Trump stimulus promises didn’t yet result in the recovery rally that many were hoping for.

Adding fuel to the risk off sentiment last week, a Satoshi-era whale sold all of their Bitcoins, valued at $1.5 billion, after holding them for 15 years, amongst a rising trend that’s getting continuously picked up by market analysts:

Raoul Pal says Bitcoin isn’t “lagging” because it’s tracking the global business cycle. Rates have stayed too-high for too-long and main street got crushed, and that extended the entire cycle.

Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten shares a similar view, saying “there is a very good chance that Bitcoin’s famous four-year price cycles are over, killed by institutional adoption.”

China has accused the U.S. of conducting a large-scale Bitcoin hack worth $13 billion from the LuBian mining pool in 2020, describing the operation as a “state-level hacker operation.”

American Bitcoin, the mining venture co-run by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., secured a US$220 million pre-IPO raise led by Scaramucci’s Solari Capital.

Strategy traded below its net asset value for the first time, drawing debate on social media about their breakeven and liquidation prices, and even rumours of Michael Saylor selling 47,000 BTC – which he has denied. 

Saylor didn’t help the situation by posting this unusual and cryptic AI generated image:

Bybit’s research team analyzed 166 blockchains using a mix of AI and manual review to identify code that enables fund freezing or blacklisting, to find 16 current have freezing functions built in, and another 19 could activate them with only minor updates.

High energy costs and reduced block rewards are squeezing margins, prompting Bitcoin Miners and manufacturers to pivot toward AI.

JPMorgan has launched JPM Coin, a digital deposit token for institutional clients that enables near-instantaneous transfers, leveraging Coinbase’s Base blockchain. The deposit tokens are essentially a digital claim on existing bank funds and can be interest-bearing.

Other crypto news

• A Bitcoin user accidentally paid nearly one BTC, about US$105,000 in fees to send a US$10 transaction to a Kraken wallet.

• The Bitcoin vs Zcash debate has intensified as ZEC stayed relatively buoyant through the recent market crash.

• Taking inspiration from the Finnish, some Americans have started heating their homes with Bitcoin this winter.

• Coinbase terminated its $2 billion acquisition of U.K. stablecoin payments firm BVNK after due diligence.

• Japan’s FSA plans to reclassify crypto as a financial product, enforcing new disclosure and insider trading rules, and cutting the crypto tax rate from 55% to a flat 20%.

• YoungHoon Kim, claiming an IQ of 276, predicts Bitcoin will hit $220,000 in 45 days.

🌎 Macro news TLDR: One more hike and it could be fireworks

The greatest free-lunch factory in history may have just closed its doors for good. Japan’s 20-year bond yield hit the highest level in two decades at 2.75%. But why does that matter?

Since 1989, Japan has printed infinite yen at 0% and flooded the world with it – aka the Yen Carry Trade. But now they’re printing just $110 billion for themselves and pulling trillions back home with higher interest rates. Japan is the only one ‘tightening the taps’ while the rest of the world is starting to fire up the money printers. 

The bottom line: global liquidity is contracting from the one place that actually mattered, the ultra-high-quality, duration-heavy bid that Japan is removing. And on 18 Dec, the Bank of Japan meets again – one more rate hike and it could be fireworks for everything that is priced assuming that the Yen Carry Trade bid would always be there. 

The U.S. may have been ‘playing with fire’ slamming 15% tariffs on their once loyal ally and biggest bond holder… As the old saying goes, play stupid games and win stupid prizes!

Economic news from the Americas

The longest U.S. government shutdown in history came to an end last week as President Trump signed a funding bill to kick the can down the road for a few more months. Thousands of federal workers who were furloughed or working without pay will receive back pay in a matter of days.

In a classic TACO u-turn Trump cut tariffs on goods like coffee, bananas and beef in a bid to slash consumer prices and ease the cost of living crisis. 

The U.S. has also landed a framework trade deal with Switzerland and five other trading partners to cut tariffs on imports to 15% and offer exemptions for certain goods from Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala.

An increasingly divided Fed is scheduled to meet on 10 Dec to decide on a further rate cut. CME Group FedWatch has a 53% chance that rates remain unchanged. Watch this one closely!

There was a notable surprise in Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 portfolio snapshot, the addition of 17.8 million Class A shares of Alphabet, now valued at $4.9 billion – making them the biggest Q3 addition in dollar terms. Just wow.

The U.S. government has hired 50,000 new employees since Trump’s second term began, with the bulk of the new employees working for ICE. So much for DOGE.

All eyes on Nvidia Q3 earnings later this week – after Peter Thiel’s hedge fund has sold off its entire stake in Nvidia during the third quarter, and Slashed shares in Tesla.

In what is being called a “GenZ uprising,” thousands have taken to the streets of Mexico City to protest against crime and corruption – with 120 people left injured.

The U.S. continues to conduct deadly strikes off the coast of Venezuela and is assembling unprecedented firepower for what could become a full-on military conflict. We’re hoping that diplomacy wins the day as President Trump said on Sunday he’s still considering talks with Venezuelan President Maduro.

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

Eurozone GDP barely grew in Q3, rising just 0.2% as the wider E.U. posted similarly weak gains and unemployment remained flat. New business registrations increased, but a sharp rise in bankruptcies across key consumer-facing sectors could highlight a market under pressure. The bureaucrats in Brussels remain optimistic for more growth into the end of the year.

A big funding gap remains, as countries across Europe are still getting to grips with the scale of expenditure needed to ramp-up military capabilities following an agreement by NATO members earlier this year to spend 5% of GDP on defense.

The U.K. economy returned slower growth of just 0.1% in Q3, figures released ahead of the big budget meeting next week.

And in Asia Pacific…

Japan’s super-long dated government bond yields climbed sharply this week as concerns deepened over increasingly expansionary fiscal policy under new Prime Minister Takaichi – pushing the 20-year Japanese government bond yield to its highest level in 26 years.

Tokyo and Beijing are embroiled in a deepening row over Taiwan after Japan suggested it could potentially become militarily involved in the event of an attempted Chinese invasion. China responded by saying, “if Japan sends troops to Taiwan, it will pay a heavy price”. Yikes!

China’s manufacturing activity in October contracted more than expected, slumping to a 6-month low of 49.0.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet for the first Thai monarch to visit China since ties were established 50 years ago. Signalling strengthening ties throughout SEA.

In AU, house prices are rising faster at the bottom end of the market after the expansion of the federal government’s 5 per cent deposit scheme.

In NZ, economists expect annual annual inflation to fall to around 2.8% and that the OCR is still on track to be cut again at next week’s meeting – following a Statistics NZ report of a monthly food price decrease of 0.3% in October. But annual food prices are still growing at 4.7%!

Stats NZ migration data, showed annual net migration gains of 12,400 in the year ended September, compared to a net gain of 42,400 in the same period last year. For New Zealand citizens, the net migration loss was 46,400 in the September 2025 year, driven by a record departure of 72,700 New Zealanders – primarily to Australia.

That’s a wrap for this week!

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