Weekly Market Update: Ahead of the Game

WIN tickets to CryptoWinter 25′ in Queenstown!

“I don’t think it’s very responsible or serious of a country as big as the United States to be threatening the world through the internet. It’s not right! He needs to understand that the world has changed. We don’t want an emperor, we are sovereign nations” – President Lula of Brazil at the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro (this week).

President Trump’s tariff tantrums are back, and they’re not winning hearts or minds. His erratic trade war is instead alienating the U.S., nudging allies and emerging markets toward BRICS’ open arms.

These countries are biting their tongues for now, quietly de-dollarizing by trading in their own currencies. But the cracks are widening as Trump slaps higher tariffs on nations dragging their feet in negotiations. Some are whispering, “was that timeline even realistic?”

Reading between the lines, something is slowly brewing. Major allies like Japan and South Korea obviously didn’t sprint to Trump’s negotiating table. Are they fed up with the U.S. flexing like a playground bully with no pushback? 

Amid this chest-thumping “strength,” the U.S. dollar took a 10% nosedive against global peers in June – its worst first half since Nixon ditched the gold standard in1971. Ouch! And with the “big beautiful” spending bill passed, the U.S. debt train is full steam ahead, no brakes in sight.

President Trump, responding to this week’s BRICS summit, warned that the U.S. will not yield its global financial dominance without a fight, stating, ‘If we lost the world standard dollar, it would be like losing a major world war. We would not be the same country.'”

Enter U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, hyping Stablecoins as a $3.7 trillion market by decade’s end – but with the dollar wobbling and 99.8% of Stablecoins tied to USD, what’s the real game here?

Are Stablecoins the U.S. government’s sneaky way to stretch dollar dominance, giving global markets new access to trade dollars more easily, fueling fresh demand? Or are they a cash cow for the U.S. Bond market, with 70% of USDT and 80% of USDC are parked in Treasuries? 

Long term, Stablecoins could flex smart money muscle, but that’s not the headline … yet. 

In the meantime, Stablecoins are poised to help maintain the dollar’s global throne, but Bitcoin’s gunning to dethrone it. Out-of-control money printing means Stablecoins can’t touch Bitcoin’s long-term value. 

For crypto holders, Stablecoins and Bitcoin play two very distinct roles. USD-backed Stablecoins stabilize crypto markets, but holding them long-term (without staking yields above inflation) is like watching your wealth slowly evaporate. They’re slick transactional tools, not long-term savings accounts. 

Stablecoins are more effectively a bridge to the digital world, siphoning cash from bloated Bond markets, fading stocks and dying fiat into Bitcoin – the capital migration of the century! 

ECB’s Christine Lagarde warned of a “privatization of money” with Stablecoin adoption. She’s close, but Bitcoin’s the real plot twist. 

Fun fact: Tether holds 5% of its reserves in Bitcoin – over 100,000 BTC. So, buying USDT, instead of holding USD, ironically contributes a little to propping up the fiat system.

The real point: Bitcoin gets you ahead of the game. Own 0.1 BTC? You’re in the global top 2.13% (after 4M lost coins). 

And with only 4.5M addresses holding >0.1 BTC, you’re ahead of 99.4% of the world!

Market sentiment has remained in: Greed

Crypto market moves: 

• Bitcoin continued to trade in a tightening range as it faced a 20 month low in volatility, trading between $105k – $110.5k, as retail investors continue to grow impatient.
• On-chain activity is at multi-year lows as BTC ETF assets under management grow.
• As Bitcoin matures, we see increased ‘paper trading’ and institutional adoption buying OTC and moving the market in a more disciplined and orderly manner. 
• Don’t despair, Polymarket shows a 33% chance that Bitcoin will break $150k in 2025!
• The tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears continues, with an est. $6 billion worth of Bitcoin shorts at risk of liquidation at $120,000.
• Bitcoin volume on exchanges remains at the lowest level since 2018!
• Another strong week of Bitcoin ETF inflows nearing $1 billion. 
• Bitcoin dominance is still holding strong above 65%. 
• Fear and Greed index is firmly in Greed, but Google search volumes remain at a 9 month lows indicating that retail investors are still MIA.
• Total crypto market cap is just below $3.5 trillion with mixed results for top 100 cap coins.
• The big winner of the week is Bonk (BONK) up +60.7% from a bullish breakout on the back of a BONKbot revenue spike and hackathon success.
• The surprise mover of the week is Ethereum (ETH) up +8.7% flexing some strength. 
• The big loser this week is Sei (SEI) down -8.1% as it rests after last month’s run up.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more. 

Highlights from the crypto space:

Retail is still missing in action as Bitcoin seems rangebound between $100k – $110k and leaving many to wonder how all of the bullish news of late has not translated into the mega bull run that everyone is waiting for! But Bitcoin continues to show bullish appetite with its highest weekly close yet at $109.2k, within 3% of a new all-time high.

Bitcoin’s derivatives market saw a quiet but meaningful repositioning in July, after two liquidation-driven drawdowns in futures and a record expiry event that wiped out over $15 billion in open interest options. A closer look at the data indicates strategic de-risking and rotation into new quarterly positioning rather than outright bearish conviction! 

The SEC has approved Grayscale’s Mixed Crypto Fund, signaling momentum for other ETF proposals – the fund currently trades over the counter and is composed of 80% BTC, 11% ETH and Solana, Cardano and XRP.

ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the rise of Stablecoin adoption might lead to the ‘privatisation of money’ – and has introduced other risks, as it weakens sovereignty and reduces the ability to conduct monetary policy. I think that is just the point!

Tech billionaire Joe Lonsdale announced he is investing in a new U.S. crypto-focused bank, being launched by Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey, aiming to fill the void left by Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse.

55% to 65% of Bitcoin mining operations around the world still trace their origins to China, whether via capital, hardware, or technical expertise, according to Batyr Hydyrov, CEO of crypto mining equipment provider Uminers.

Eight whale sized wallets that lay dormant since May 2011 have just moved 80,000 BTC worth over $8 billion – catching the attention of ‘crypto anoraks’! There is speculation that these wallets may belong to the recently pardoned Roger Ver, who (if true) is now one of the richest people in the world.

The Open Network (TON), spun out of Telegram, has unveiled a new pathway to UAE residency, offering 10-year Golden Visas to applicants who stake $100,000 worth of Toncoin for three years and pay a one-time $35,000 processing fee. Leaving many (including CZ) to question “is this real?”

American Entrepreneur and popular Financial Analyst Tom Lee has said “Bitcoin has become a $2 trillion asset. Never in financial history has anything reached $2 trillion and disappeared. Ignore it at your own risk.”💥

Michael Saylor’s Strategy now holds nearly 600,000 Bitcoins and is teasing another purchase this week by posting the iconic Microstrategy Portfolio Tracker to social media:

In other crypto news…

• Gold miner ‘Hamak Limited’ announced that they will buy Bitcoin for their treasury.

• Cardano founder, Charles Hoskinson also announced that he is planning to buy $100 million #Bitcoin for their treasury.

• Pop culture icon Drake compares his love life to Bitcoin price swings in his new song “What Did I Miss?”

• Nasdaq listed Bit Digital has raised a total of $162.9 million to buy ETH for its treasury, in a strategic pivot away from BTC, as the firm exits its Bitcoin mining operations.

• Feeling the FOMO, payments giant Ripple confirmed that it has also filed an application with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to obtain a national bank charter.

• When Elon Musk was asked on X if his new America Party would embrace Bitcoin, his reply was “Fiat is hopeless, so yes.”

• The creator of Twitter and Cash App, Jack Dorsey just released a Bluetooth messaging app called ‘Bitchat’ that doesn’t need the internet or cell service to send Bitcoin.

🔥Win tickets to the CryptoWinter ’25 Summit in Queenstown!

This winter, 150 of the country’s brightest leaders in blockchain will gather in Queenstown to explore cutting edge advancements and real-world applications for the technology.

This isn’t just another networking event. It’s your chance to join top industry experts, regulators and builders to dive into the critical topics shaping our industry’s future – from real estate tokenisation to cross border payments and the next wave of DeFi.

Want one of the 150 exclusive seats? We have 3x tickets to give away. 

*T&Cs: we’ll decide the 3x winners by Friday, July 18th and contact them by email. The judge’s decision is final. Good luck! Please note: flights and accommodation (if required) are not included and you will need to make your own arrangements.

🌎 Macro news TLDR: The West faces a wake-up call

In stark contrast to the G7 summit last month, where trade wars and military spending ruled the agenda, a very different kind of meeting took place this week in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The BRICS annual summit, essentially a cooperation of rising powers collectively called “The Global South.” – with Indonesia’s recent addition, BRICS now unites 11 member nations and 10 partner states who together represent 44% of global GDP and 56% of the world’s population. 

Unlike the G7’s confrontational stance, BRICS emphasise cooperation over rivalry, prioritizing infrastructure, sustainable development and the New Development Bank (based in Shanghai) as a counterweight to the IMF and World Bank. 

Contrary to popular belief, immediate de-dollarization isn’t the goal, but expanding local currency trade signals a push for eventual economic independence. The bloc also advocates for reforms to make global governance – including the UN – more inclusive and equitable.

In a volatile world where U.S. leadership is less reliable and more erratic, the West faces a wake-up call! Don’t sleep on the outcomes of this BRICS summit.

Economic news from the Americas

The U.S. stock market set new records last week on news that the June jobs report had come in ahead of expectations, with payrolls increasing 147,000 over prior month and the initial 110,000 estimate. Let’s wait for the revision!

The House of Representatives passed President Trump’s massive tax and spending bill, delivering him a major political victory – and it was signed into law. 

A notable feature of the bill is that it ends the long-standing federal support for solar and wind power, while creating a friendly environment for oil, gas and coal production.

After a dramatic falling out with Donald Trump over the passing of the bill, Elon Musk has launched a new U.S. political party called The America Party, saying “when it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & grift, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy.” Unsurprisingly, Tesla stock fell nearly 7% on Monday.

Treasury Secretary Bessent responded by saying Elon Musk is not popular and should focus on business rather than politics. The soap opera of American politics continues!

U.S. President Trump confirmed that letters would go out to countries without a current trade deal notifying them of higher tariff rates – at least 14 countries are set to face steep blanket tariffs between 25-40%. Commerce Secretary Lutnick told reporters that the higher tariffs would now take effect from 1 Aug.

As a result of this ongoing U.S. trade war uncertainty, most of the G7 countries have already revised down their GDP forecasts for the year:

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

The clock is ticking for trade talks between the U.S. and E.U., as European officials are growing increasingly nervous – their best hope may be striking a bare-bones “political deal” before the new 1 Aug deadline. Good luck!

Tensions between Brussels and Beijing have also been rising, with the European Union imposing tariffs on China-built electric vehicles and Beijing slapping duties on imported brandy and medical devices containing E.U. made components.

Poland is about to introduce tight border controls with Germany and Lithuania, in response to growing criticism of Berlin’s decision to push thousands of migrants, who it claimed had crossed the border illegally, back to Poland.

Ukrainian President Zelensky says he’s ready for a meeting with Russian President Putin to discuss ending the war. Hopefully this time!

Kicking off the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Russia has put forward a proposal to launch a new investment platform tied to The BRICS Development Bank “to provide financial resources for all countries of the Global South.” 

President Xi Jinping of China’s absence at the event didn’t go unnoticed, causing much speculation. Watch this space!

President Trump has threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the Anti-American policies of BRICS, saying “BRICS was set up to degenerate our dollar and take it off as the standard… we’re not going to lose the standard.”

And in Asia Pacific…

The U.S. struck a trade deal with Vietnam mid-last week that includes a 20% tariff on imports. And also lifted restrictions on exports to China for chip design software, as China made concessions on rare earth exports – another proof point of de-escalating trade tensions.

Over the ditch, the seasonally adjusted balance on goods traded decreased by $2,621m in May as the effects of Trump’s tariffs started to bite Aussie exporters.

AU household spending rose in May and by more than expected with a good recovery from a weak month in April, up +4.2% from May a year ago and their best gain in 7 months. But in a surprise decision the RBA hit the brakes faster than Oscar on a restart, to keep rates steady at 3.85%.

U.S. tariffs haven’t had a noticeable impact on NZ trade patterns in the two months since ‘liberation day’ – as May merchandise trade figures put NZ export values +10% ahead of last year, but it’s early days!

Exports are fueling NZ’s slow economic recovery, while other key indicators like composite PMI, retail spending per capita, residential construction and job ads are still trending down – it remains a multi-speed and fragile turnaround – however business community remains optimistic and investor confidence is slowly returning to the market.

Despite decreasing mortgage rates, the latest RBNZ figures show that the amount of non-performing loans rose by $28 million in May (1.2%) to $2.448 billion.

Further help for the NZ economy is unlikely to come from the RBNZ this week as economists and banks now widely expect a pause in the OCR at 3.25% (mirroring the RBA decision). Hard to stomach when a large part of the inflation rise is from council rates and insurance!

That’s a wrap for this week!

Stay tuned for the next update.

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