If you’re not holding Bitcoin, gold or anything that sidesteps fiat, you’re betting on a financial system that’s coughing up red flags like it’s flu season.

The U.S. government, in a move that screams “we’re fine, everything’s fine,” quietly opened a liquidity backdoor for the bond market last week. Allowing banks to binge on Treasuries without bolstering their capital reserves – a feverish attempt to prop up a market that is choking on nearly $2 trillion of new debt issuance each year.

Foreign holders like Japan and China? They’re checking out.

Yield curve control by stealth? Yep, nailed it!

While everyone’s fixated on the next Fed meeting and Trump’s trade war tantrums (China’s off the critical list, Canada’s in the ER), the real sickness festers in the bond market. The very system that underpins the stability of the U.S. dollar itself.

And Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” is just another one of many pills popped to delay the reckoning. Elon gets it, reaffirming this week his bold diagnosis: “utterly insane and destructive.”

Trump’s latest prescription? Bitcoin could “absorb liquidity” to cool the dollar’s inflationary fever. Translation: inflation’s real, but Bitcoin might keep it from boiling over for a while longer. We think he’s missing the point…

The point: the game’s been rigged since Cantillon’s quill – the rich get richer, banks get IV drips and homeowners get tissues.

Michael Saylor continues to masterfully multitask, sipping the elixir while serving up the cure.

Texas, also gets it! They’re not sneezing. The first state to stockpile Bitcoin for its strategic reserve as they legalize gold and silver for daily use.

Enter Jack Mallers, the 29-year-old CEO of Strike and Twenty One Capital, who dropped the Bitcoin keynote of the century at Bitcoin Prague a week ago. His take? Bitcoin’s more than just an asset – it’s a moral revolution against a failing financial system.

The fiat system, he says, has been in terminal decline since 1971 when Nixon ditched gold, unleashing debt fevers, devalued savings and generational theft. Bitcoin’s not just money; it’s an antidote to a fiat system that thrives on inequality.

The laws of Bitcoin? Clear. Thou shalt not inflate, counterfeit, steal, censor or confiscate. Fiat’s playbook? Keep printing, keep propping, keep prescribing. Pick your medicine.

Market sentiment has remained in: Greed

Crypto fear and greed index for July 2 2025

Crypto market moves:

Bitcoin closed Q2 at $107,179 and less than 5% away from new all-time highs in a strong rebound rally after the Israel-Iran ceasefire averted fears of WW3.
BTC supply on exchanges has fallen to a 6 year low!
Strong positive Bitcoin ETF inflows continued (over $2 billion last week) as the market eagerly awaits news on potential Altcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin dominance has remained above 65% as very few major Altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in this cycle so far.
BTC monthly RSI (key momentum indicator) is sitting just below the key 70 level, which traditional investors claim is starting to get over bought – but from previous cycles we know that Bitcoin can run up to 90. Keep an eye on this!
Fear and Greed index continued in Greed, but Google search volume is still bouncing along the bottom as we wait for a sustained price rally to spark broad market FOMO.
Polymarket is currently pricing in a 52% chance that Bitcoin will hit $130k in 2025.
Total crypto market cap is still below $3.5 trillion as most of the top 100 coins finished in the red as the markets dipped to start July.
The big winner of the week is Bitcoin Cash (BCH) up +10.1% as it hits a 7 month high.
The surprise mover of the week is Fartcoin down -11.3% after the brief run up on the ‘meme interest’ around U.S. mortgage applications with a bag of Fartcoin.
The big loser this week is Injective (INJ) down -12.4%.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space:

Bitcoin just had its highest monthly, quarterly and half yearly close ever… as Trump praised Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in a press conference last week saying Bitcoin may help relieve pressure on the US dollar.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency has ordered major government controlled mortgage lenders, Fannie May and Freddie Mac, to count Bitcoin and crypto assets as legitimate collateral when accessing mortgage eligibility – reflecting the growing mainstream acceptance of digital assets in the United States. We’re waiting to see the first Fartcoin backed mortgage!

Stablecoin mania has hit Wallstreet as Circle (CRCL) owner of USDC hit nearly $300 after listing at just $31 a couple of weeks ago.

The co-founder of Bridge Capital gave a compelling explanation: “We think that stablecoins are an entirely new money-movement platform, like credit cards were decades ago.” Think faster and cheaper processing fees for merchants!

Circle also submitted a new bank charter application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Stablecoins have become the backbone of internet payments, with adoption now outpacing major traditional card networks in on-chain volume, according to Noam Hurwitz, head of engineering at Alchemy.

The proposed ‘Genius Act’ could force Stablecoin giant Tether to face audits and end risky practices, posing a major challenge to its U.S. operations.

Despite continued Bitcoin ETF inflows and growing institutional demand, Bitcoin’s price remains stuck in a tight range above $100k. According to CNBC, the buy pressure is being offset by mega whales (like early Chinese miners from 2013) who are aggressively selling from wallets holding 1K–10K BTC. Interesting theory!

The country of Bhutan mines Bitcoin to offset falling tourism revenue and their fund government spending – now holding 12,000 BTC which is equivalent to nearly 40% of their GDP.

As crypto mainstream adoption continues to surge forward, we still have a long way to go as a recent study from ChainAnalysis pointed out that only 20% of major markets have comprehensive regulatory frameworks.

Global M2 money supply is growing and BTC seems to be tracking it with a 3 month lag – the bulls are strapping on their rocket boosters (not financial advice).

Bitcoin price chart compared to global M2 Liquidity

In other crypto news…

Judge Torres denied the SEC’s request to end the XRP case early – but rumours suggest a deal may have been struck. Watch this one closely.

President Trump is reportedly considering pro-Bitcoin Scott Bessent as the next Federal Reserve Chair!

Michael Saylor told Bitcoin OG Adam Back he is going to buy “billions and billions” more Bitcoin and transform capital markets as he prepares to purchase for the 11th consecutive week.

Coinbase Stock hit a new high last week and has been on a tear since joining the S&P 500, as they prepare to rollout Perpetual-Style Futures in the U.S. on July 21.

Texas has funded its new Bitcoin strategic reserve with $10 million and Governor Abbot signed a new law making gold and silver legal tender in day-to-day transactions.

Robinhood has launched ETH and SOL staking for the U.S. and a range of other features including staking, perpetual futures and tokenised equities for E.U.

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🌎 Macro news TLDR: A time of unprecedented disruptors

The monetary cycle drives economic ups and downs, typically spanning 3 to 7 years – based on a 7 year cycle, expansions (4-6 years) generally outpace contractions (1-2 years).

Globally, we’re in a late-cycle expansion, with cracks forming…

The U.S. is about to get juiced by a big, beautiful stimulus injection, keeping its late-cycle party going, though Fed rates (4.25%-4.5%, eyed to drop to 3.7% by Q4 2025) face headwinds from tariff-driven inflation and fading demand.

Europe teeters near contraction, ramping up defense spending toward a 5% target while leaning on aggressive ECB easing.

China, fresh off a trade deal with the U.S., continues to grapple with a sluggish recovery as higher tariffs bite.

But we live in a time of unprecedented disruptors, each with potential to derail the trajectory – like AI and crypto, shifting regional powers with escalating tensions, deglobalization and energy scarcity in a climate-stressed era.

Stay alert, because the next phase hinges on whether innovation and policy can outpace these gathering storms.

Economic news from the Americas

The Federal Reserve has approved a lowering of capital requirements that banks say have limited their ability to operate – the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio regulates the quantity and quality of capital banks should be keeping on their balance sheets.

Market impact will depend on how banks allocate the freed-up capital, but it’s cleverly designed to provide extra liquidity to the bond market.

Fed Governor Waller said on Friday that he doesn’t expect tariffs to boost inflation significantly, so policymakers should be looking to lower interest rates at the next July meeting. President Trump followed up by saying he’d “love” Fed Chair Powell to resign and interest rates cut to 1%.

Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed they are working to select Fed Chair Powell’s replacement in the coming weeks.

The S&P 500 closed last week and the quarter at a record high, making a +25% rebound from the April Trump trade war lows.

The U.S. and Canada had another fall out, this time over a tax targeting tech companies making more than $15 million from Canadian internet users.

President Trump said “we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on trade with Canada, effective immediately” …but Canada quickly caved and now discussions are back on.

The June jobs report is due out on Thursday as the labour market has remained resilient despite fears of a hiring slowdown – however, it’s interesting to note that post reporting, job numbers have been revised down by a massive 219,000 in 2025 so far.

President Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” was finally passed by the Senate on Tuesday following days of debate, pushing the massive spending package closer to the President’s desk – Republicans hope to have it signed before the July 4th holiday weekend.

Elon Musk unloaded on Trump’s tax bill again this time calling it “DEBT SLAVERY and threatening to start his own America Party.

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

President Trump’s shaky Israel-Iran peace deal is still in place after more than a week – as the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog says U.S. strikes on Iran fell short of causing total damage to its nuclear program and uranium enrichment could restart “in a matter of months.”

Russia has publicly criticised Israel for not being subject to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection programme as it is not a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

Nato leaders agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, driven by persistent pressure from President Trump. Spain, however, continued to resist committing to the target, resulting in threats of higher U.S. trade tariffs.

President Zelensky of Ukraine was in attendance at the NATO summit – despite not being an official NATO member. Read into that what you will!

The European Central Bank Chief Economist confirmed that the rate cutting cycle is “done” as inflation has dropped from a peak of 10% back to 2%.

The British pound is hovering near its highest level against the dollar since January 2022.

Some analysts argue its strength is more to do with weakness in the greenback this year – and are divided on the outlook.

And in Asia Pacific…

President Trump confirmed that the trade deal with China has finally been inked – and went on to say that if countries do not have a trade deal with the U.S. by July 9th they will get a letter with a set tariff and that will be the end of it.

In another landmark moment for the global AI race, Chinese search giant Baidu has said that it will make Ernie, its generative AI large language model, open source this week – a move that could rattle tech markets like the emergence of DeepSeek.

Over the ditch in AU, home values look set to continue climbing in the second half of the year after nearly every corner of the country recorded growth in June, and as the Reserve Bank faces mounting pressure to further cut interest rates.

In NZ, ASB economists have changed their call and now pick that the Official Cash Rate will be cut just once more, probably in August, to reach a low of 3.00%.

The cost of living squeeze continues, as an insurance comparison website confirms house, car and contents insurance premiums have increased 51% over the past three years. Ouch! ANZ’s business confidence survey suggests the future looks better but the present is… gr i m.

That’s a wrap for this week!

Stay tuned for the next update.

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