A time to trust Bitcoin

Well, talk about a curveball…

Just days ago, the world was braced for the worst, with the Israel-Iran conflict simmering on the brink of catastrophe with the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump’s trade war adding fuel to the fire. Yet, here we are, blinking in disbelief as a ceasefire has apparently been brokered in the Middle East in record time. From end-of-days panic to uneasy quiet – what a peculiar time to be alive!

The Iran-Israel drama reads like a script for a budget thriller. This weekend’s U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites – oddly empty, of course – raised global eyebrows. Iran’s comeback? A courteous warning followed by missiles that hit nothing and nobody. Behind the curtain, diplomacy seems to have been in overdrive, spinning what looked like Armageddon into careful geopolitical posturing.

Let’s not get too cozy, though… We live in a time where the world flips faster than a tabloid headline. Just weeks ago, President Trump pulled off a peace deal between Pakistan-India, a feat that’s now got him in the running for a Nobel Peace Prize nomination. Fresh off that win, he’s apparently done it again with this latest ceasefire.

But the constant churn – war one day, handshakes the next – reminds us that our systems, from diplomacy to finance, rest on a shaky kind of mutual trust. Look at the global economy, humming along on shared faith in its own rules while big players move and manipulate to their advantage behind the scenes.

Bitcoin sidesteps that trap entirely.

Unlike dollars or bonds, Bitcoin’s not tethered to any government’s whims or central bank’s printing press. It’s a decentralized, peer-to-peer network, running on math and code, not promises from Washington or Brussels. With a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, it’s immune to inflationary money-printing sprees that erode fiat value. Its blockchain – transparent, immutable, auditable – ensures every transaction’s verified without a middleman, making it a fortress against seizure or censorship.

As trust in the current financial system slowly unravels, maybe it’s time to put your trust in something with no single point of failure and no counter party risk?

When 12 days can rewrite the script entirely, expecting the unexpected is less a choice and more a reflex. Ceasefires might hold, or they might not. Here’s to peace, for however long it sticks around – and to keeping both eyes open, just in case.

Market sentiment has changed gears back to: Greed

Crypto market moves:

Despite continued bullish news flow, markets have been softened by geopolitical tensions causing retail investors to think twice about putting their money to work.
BTC swung wildly on the news of the U.S. strike on Iran – from a high of over $106k to a low just above $98k.
Bitcoin dominance jumped to 67% before falling back and stabilising above 65%.
BTC weekly RSI (key momentum indicator) briefly dropped below 60 but then recovered and is moving up again as fears subside (at time of writing).
Fear and Greed fell from neutral into fear, but closed the week in Greed.
Bitcoin ETFs finished with net positive inflows of over $1 billion last week.
From a TA perspective, there’s a big reverse head & shoulders pattern forming on the BTC weekly/monthly chart with a breakout zone above $114k – keep an eye on that.
Total crypto market cap is now just below $3.4 trillion as most of the top 100 coins continue to claw back the losses of the past few days.
The big winner of the week goes to Stacks (STX) up +8.8%.
The surprise mover of the week is Sei (SEI) now back in the top 100 on a sentiment driven rally!
The big loser this week is Polkadot (DOT) down -7.5% on news the SEC has delayed Nasdaq’s Bid to List 21Shares Polkadot Trust.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space:

After holding above $100k for over 40 consecutive days, BTC briefly dipped below $100k on Sunday as fears of U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict sparked panic of a broader regional war. ETH, XRP and other major cryptos also crashed, wiping out $250 billion from the market in just 24 hours, before the markets staged a recovery.

The Senate passed the GENIUS Stablecoin bill last week, giving the crypto industry its first major legislative win and opening the door to banks, fintechs and retailers – with reports that Amazon and Walmart are investigating stablecoin payment options.

Coinbase Payments launched its first full-stack stablecoin payment solution created for eCommerce platforms at scale. This came just days after Shopify announced it would begin allowing merchants to accept USDC stablecoins in its payments flow.

Neobank Revolut, with 55 million retail customers, is exploring creating its own stablecoin – as crypto-friendly legislation has broadened appeal to a range of new financial players.

Circle’s (CRCL) market cap has climbed above $62.9 billion, surpassing the value of its own USDC stablecoin and with trading volume briefly surpassing even Nvidia. Wow! The surge follows Senate approval of the GENIUS Stablecoin bill.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed Senate Bill 21, officially authorizing the creation of the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, becoming the first state to officially accept Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset. Yeeehaaa! And rumours are their first purchase will be $10 million.

The Federal Reserve has eliminated “reputational risk” as a factor in bank exams – Jerome Powell also said: “banks get to decide who their customers are… banks are also free to conduct crypto activities as long as they do so in a way that is protective of safety and soundness.”

Thailand has approved tax exemptions on income from the sale of Bitcoin and crypto for 5 years in a push to further position the country as a global financial hub. Smart move.

DeFi lending has hit another new-high with the total value locked (TVL) in lending protocols now over $55.69 billion. AAVE still holds 55% of the market but Maple and MORPHO are quickly catching up.

Real-world assets tokenization platform Securitize announced that the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) is now accepted as collateral on Crypto.com and Deribit, two of the world’s leading exchanges.

As Quantum Computing is likely to cause a profound technological shift in the coming years, Project Eleven is already working on future proofing blockchain technology with post-quantum cryptography (PQC) to ensure functionality even when classical cryptography fails.

In other crypto news…

North Korea is targeting job seekers in the crypto industry with new malware that is designed to steal passwords for crypto wallets and password managers.

An Anti-Iranian group called Predatory Sparrow hacked Iran’s largest crypto exchange stealing $90 million.

Barron Trump (19) shocked everyone by revealing his $40 million fortune, most of which comes from crypto thanks to his family’s firm World Liberty Financial.

Coinbase is gearing up to launch crypto perpetual futures as the CFTC reconsiders its stance on high-risk financial products.

Bloomberg analysts have raised the approval odds of an XRP ETF to 95% chance in 2025.

Michael Saylor has teased another Bitcoin purchase this week saying “nothing stops orange.”

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🌎 Macro news TLDR: Markets dislike uncertainty more than war

For a couple of days, we had another U.S. war in the Middle East and markets braced for impact.

History shows a clear pattern for what it means for the markets: over the past 50 years, at least seven U.S. military actions in the Middle East – ranging from precision strikes to full-scale wars – have triggered immediate market jitters. Oil prices spike as investors fear supply disruptions and stocks sell off, rattled by uncertainty.

Yet, within days or weeks, markets typically rebound. Data from past conflicts, like the Gulf War or Iraq invasion, reveals stocks were often flat or up within a week and consistently higher after a month. Why? Markets crave clarity and once fears of a broader regional war fade, confidence quickly returns.

War, counterintuitively, can also juice the economy. Defense spending surges, funneling billions into aerospace, technology, and logistics sectors. Government contracts balloon, boosting corporate revenues and creating jobs. During the Iraq War, U.S. defense spending jumped 40% from 2001 to 2005, lifting GDP.

This time, the Iran conflict should follow suit. Unless escalation engulfs the region – markets are likely to shrug off the initial panic. But brace for volatility if tensions flare beyond containment. History suggests resilience, but geopolitics is a wild card!

Economic news from the Americas

President Trump’s inauguration speech promised: “we will measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end – and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.” His legacy as “peacemaker” was under sharp scrutiny after the U.S. launched a direct military strike on 3 of Iran’s nuclear facilities on Sunday.

As anticipated, stock futures dipped and oil prices surged Monday before U.S. markets opened, but after Iran’s measured retaliation against U.S. military bases in Qatar, President Trump swiftly countered with a surprise announcement of a “ceasefire timeline,” declaring, “Congratulations, world – it’s time for peace.” This prompted a dramatic reversal, with oil prices plummeting and stocks soaring to record highs. The doomers were not impressed!

President Trump ripped into Fed Chair Jerome Powell again last week, calling him “destructive,” after the central bank kept interest rates steady on Wednesday. Trump said “Too Late Powell is costing the United States hundreds of billions of dollars.”

Probabilities of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting at the end of July are still slim – both FedWatch and Polymarket are showing less than 20% chance (at time of writing). Markets may need to wait until September for that next liquidity injection!

US PMI came in at 52.8 in June, down from 53.0 in May. While U.S. business activity grew steadily in June, the overall rate of expansion remains well below the rates seen in late 2024.

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said Tehran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty and people after the “outrageous” U.S. attacks. Tehran has been launching missile and drone strikes on Israeli military targets but is now reportedly agreeing to a ceasefire, despite vowing to continue its nuclear program.

Iran’s parliament has officially approved the closing of the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since 1972 – it is now unlikely, but if this goes ahead, shipments of 20+ million barrels of oil per day will be impacted – and this won’t be good for inflation!

UK inflation hit 3.4% in May, meeting expectations – inflation data is being closely watched by the Bank of England ahead of its meeting on Thursday.

The Swiss central bank (SNB) lowered its key interest rate to zero last week, citing easing inflationary pressures and concerns about deflation.

The stage is set for tense talks at the NATO Summit in The Hague on Wednesday where President Trump is expected to exert further pressure on Europe to boost defense spending. Norway has already backed the 5% defence spending target despite Spain rejecting it.

And in Asia Pacific…

China denounced the US attack on Iranian nuclear sites as serious violations of the UN Charter – as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on China to prevent Iran from blocking the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for U.S. airstrikes.

New Zealand has suspended millions of dollars in funding to the Cook Islands as the relationship between the two constitutionally-linked countries continues to deteriorate amid the deepening ties with China.

GDP rose 0.8 percent in the March 2025 quarter, following a 0.5 percent increase in the December 2024 quarter – New Zealand may be clear of the recession but the economy is still bouncing along the bottom!