BTC is the new American dream

Just when we thought the geopolitical chessboard couldn’t get any more… lively, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict stubbornly refusing to settle, another hot war has erupted between Israel and Iran, with allies stacking up on both sides. It’s safe to say there’s plenty at stake in this escalating regional showdown.

It feels like we’re all strapped into a rollercoaster set to ‘fast forward,’ watching global powers shift almost daily. We’re hurtling through a period defined by exponential tech advancements, a tug-of-war between globalization and nationalism and what appears to be the twilight of a debt-fueled monetary system.

And if you’re looking for a canary in the coalmine, gold is chirping loudly! Its recent surge and overtaking of the Euro as the second largest global reserve asset aren’t just fascinating anecdotes – they’re a potent early warning signal and many out there are truly worried about what they see.

This collision of trends is accelerating a shift that is rapidly redefining our financial landscape, highlighting real-world value in the scarcity of “real things” like commodities, precious metals and yes, even Bitcoin. As Michael Saylor aptly put it, the current system is “rigged against you” if you’re trying to store the fruits of your labour.

The hyper-financialization of everything has led to a bizarre reality where money makes money without actually producing anything tangible. For example: the U.S. share of global manufacturing plummeted from 28% in the early 2000s to a mere 17% today, with projections that it could hit 11% by 2030. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market cap now stands at a staggering 200% of GDP.

The COVID crash lows in 2020 marked a pivotal turning point, signaling the end of a remarkable 40-year environment characterized by declining interest rates and ever-inflating debt. We’ve now entered a new era, one where the cost of servicing that growing global debt is becoming increasingly challenging and cracks are beginning to appear.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that if runaway U.S. debt isn’t brought under control, we could see the biggest financial crisis since 2008. Given the scale of the problem, these controls will likely be another round of financial repression – think yield control, tariffs and currency pegs.

But amidst this chaos, there’s a fascinating counter-narrative emerging. Bitcoin is gaining serious momentum, with surging ETF inflows and claims that more than 200 companies now hold it in their treasuries. It wasn’t long ago that a strategic Bitcoin reserve felt like a pipe dream – now 30% of Bitcoin is held by credible, centralized entities, cementing it a place in the global financial ecosystem.

The Bitwise Founder & CEO, Jeff Park, put it succinctly this week when he said “owning one Bitcoin is the new American Dream for younger investors”.

The implication is loud and clear: don’t just watch the future unfold – understand it and position accordingly.

Market sentiment has shifted from: Greed to Neutral.

Crypto market moves:

It currently feels like a tug of war between endless bullish crypto news and escalating global uncertainty – but none of the traditional bull market top signals have sounded yet.
BTC swung wildly again from a high over $110k to a low just above $100k following news of the Israel-Iran escalation and then back up again!
Bitcoin dominance is still holding strong at 64.7%.
BTC weekly RSI key momentum indicator took a hit but is back at mid 60s – and ETF inflows remained muted again this week.
Fear and Greed has dropped back to the Neutral zone – although retail interest measured by Google Search is back at bear market lows. May need a sustained price rally to awaken retail interest?
Total crypto market cap is just above $3.3 trillion with mostly price declines across the top 100 coins, although some have managed to hold onto weak gains.
The big winner of the week goes to Bitcoin Cash (BCH) up +5%.
The big loser this week – and a surprise mover – is Arbitrum (ARB) down -24.8% after a major token unlock on June 16 released 92.65 million ARB tokens, creating short-term bearish pressure and increased selling supply.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space:

The crypto market was locked in a fierce bull-bear struggle last week until the Israel-Iran escalation sparked chaos, wiping out $330 million in liquidations in just one hour. Bitcoin, after soaring past $110,000, stumbled but has held firm above the $100,000 mark and recovered.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt’s warning of a potential 75% Bitcoin correction, echoing its 2022 plunge, has drawn scepticism. “Never say never, but it feels highly unlikely right now,” said Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal.

Stripe is now doubling down in the crypto space, after their Stablecoin play, by acquiring crypto wallet developer Privy with over 75 million user accounts. Want proof of where this is going? Look no further!

Shopify announced it is joining forces with Coinbase and Stripe to bring frictionless, secure USDC stablecoin payments to merchants worldwide. Bazinga!

Staying with Coinbase, they’ve teamed up with American Express to offer a first credit card, giving up to 4% back in Bitcoin – available exclusively for Coinbase One subscribers. And every credit card displays the Bitcoin genesis block design.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins spoke at the Commission’s Crypto Task Force Roundtable on Decentralized Finance last week, boldly stating that “the right to self custody crypto is a foundational American value.”

The GENIUS Act Stablecoin Bill had stalled over Trump-linked concerns – until the US Senate decided to advance it in a 68-30 vote last week, which virtually guarantees final passage.

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF became the fastest in history to surpass $70 billion in assets under management – a Senior Bloomberg Analyst said that Bitcoin ETFs will “triple” gold ETFs on the way to $1 trillion.

A report from Gemini and Glassnode noted that “30.9% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held in centralized treasuries – including governments, ETFs, public companies, and centralized exchanges – the market has undergone a structural transformation toward institutional maturity.” What would Satoshi think?

Michael Saylor has been spreading Bitcoin hopium like wildfire, including a landmark discussion with Jordan Peterson. If Bitcoin closes Q2 above $119K, (Micro)Strategy will post the largest quarterly earnings in human history. Bigger than Apple and bigger than Nvidia.

An article from Cointelegraph gives insights into the future of NFTs: they are quietly shifting from speculative assets to core digital infrastructure – functioning as the underlying layer for asset ownership, transactional logic and autonomous agent behavior in decentralized systems.

In other crypto news…

Pudgy Penguins announced a strategic partnership with NASCAR to expand its reach to a wider audience.

A survey from BNY Melon found that 74% of their $1 billion of family office money is actively exploring buying Bitcoin or crypto. Smart money is waking up!

The SEC has requested spot Solana ETF issuers to update their S-1 filings, suggesting that approval could occur sometime in the near future. Fingers crossed!

The SEC delayed next steps on the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF, Grayscale Hedera Trust and the VanEck Avalanche ETFs.

President Trump disclosed over $600 million in 2024 earnings, much of it from crypto ventures including NFTs and Token sales.

Coinbase is facing backlash from crypto users after sponsoring the 250th anniversary celebration of the US Army in Washington, D.C.

Vietnam has passed a sweeping digital technology law that includes legalising crypto assets from 1 Jan 2026.

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🌎 Macro news TLDR: Moving swiftly toward a checkmate

A multipolar world is emerging.

Rising powers are steadily carving out influence, bit by bit, growing bolder with each win as America’s global dominance is eroding – slowly, slowly at first and then all at once – strained by costly military overreach, mounting debt and fraying strategic alliances.

China has quietly transformed into a formidable industrial powerhouse – standing defiant against U.S. trade tariff threats, guided by a philosophy of patience rooted in strategic restraint. Biding its time as adversaries falter, China steadily broadens its global influence.

Russia has forged a resilient, self-reliant economy with a low debt-to-GDP ratio of 19%, well-equipped to endure even the most severe external pressures. Standing strong against NATO and U.S. pressure in war with Ukraine, once again leveraging its resilience and strategic depth to outmaneuver adversaries.

India is emerging as the next global tech and manufacturing hub, but lured by U.S. economic and military incentives to distance itself from BRICS. How long can New Delhi skillfully balance both sides?

Meanwhile, Iran is back in the spotlight. Unfazed by decades of sanctions, it staunchly defends nuclear ambitions, bracing for retaliation against any aggression. The world watches, anxious about what happens next…

The chessboard’s pieces are moving swiftly toward a checkmate, but the endgame may defy expectations. No grandmaster can predict the final board. Investors must stay vigilant and nimble.

Economic news from the Americas

As President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause nears its end, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is signaling fresh openness toward shifting the deadline.

He said for any of the “important trading partners that are negotiating in good faith,” the Trump administration could roll the date forward.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.4% in May, from 2.3% in April, but came in below the market expectation of 2.5% – which spurred President Trump to call Fed Chair Powell “a numbskull” and Vice President Vance to join in the calls for lower interest rates citing “monetary malpractice.”

Unrealised losses on investment securities held by U.S. banks, used to generate income and manage liquidity, remain at elevated levels of ~$413 billion as of Q1 2025.

Unrealized losses on investment securities chart

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday and CME Fed watch is saying there’s a 97% chance of “no change” – September is currently showing the best odds for the first rate cut.

Over in Europe and the Middle East…

Oil jumped over +10% last Friday and stock futures plummeted on news that Israel had launched a series of strategic airstrikes against Iran, targeting their nuclear program. Israel’s Defense Minister immediately declared a state of emergency and U.S. forces went on high alert in the region. Here we go again!

Israel and Iran continue to exchange strikes, with both sides reporting heavy damage and casualties – there are growing calls from allies to find a peaceful end but no diplomatic solution in sight at the time of writing. Surprisingly, markets traded up on Monday and seemed largely unfazed by it all.

The G7 Summit in Canada is underway with war on the agenda. President Trump opened with a provocative statement, suggesting that reincluding Russia in the group could have prevented the current war, stating “you wouldn’t have a war right now if you had Russia in.”

Britain’s economic output contracted sharply in April as a direct result of the U.S. tariffs, data showed GDP shrank by a worse than expected 0.3% in April – the biggest monthly drop since October 2023.

And in Asia Pacific…

President Donald Trump confirmed the China trade deal is ‘done,’ pending final details. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs on China will be at the current 55% and not higher. Markets breathed a sigh of relief.

A crucial part of the new China trade deal includes “any necessary rare earths” to be supplied up front – further relieving tensions after China imposed export restrictions on several rare earth elements and magnets widely used by the automotive and defense sectors.

A CNBC report titled Inside India shone the spotlight on how India is pitching itself as an appealing choice for companies looking to diversify – offering a large, young labor force and manufacturing incentives.

Stats NZ is reporting an annual net migration gain of 21,300 for the April 2025 year compared with 90,900 a year earlier. The Govt has launched a new “family boost” visa in hopes to attract more immigration.

Kiwibank economists are sticking with their prediction that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will need to be cut to 2.5% by the end of this year – saying their house price forecasts have “proved too optimistic.”

That’s a wrap for this week!

Stay tuned for the next update.

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