Weekly Market Update: Time to Tread Carefully?

Bitcoin’s Path is Unclear

China rolled out a massive military parade in Beijing last week, signaling its strength to the world, as President Xi Jinping asked the world to choose “war or peace.”

Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war still grinds on with no resolution, as President Putin continues to shrug off Western peace talks and threats. Tensions are rising again, and Europe, grappling with its own debt crisis, is left scrambling for its next move in an uncertain future. 

Across the Atlantic, President Trump, self-styled “Peace President” and Nobel Prize hopeful, quietly signed an executive order renaming the Department of Defense to the Department of War. It sounds very ominous but it barely made a ripple. Speculate or ignore?

Jobs and employment data missed expectations, all but locking in the restart of the U.S. rate-cutting cycle from next week. Markets, however, have remained subdued, with enthusiasm for cuts dampened by uncertainty over the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump’s tariffs, which could reignite and escalate the global trade war.

Rate cuts are the talk of the town, but they didn’t save markets in 2000, 2008 or 2020 – brief rallies crumbled into sharp selloffs. Investors be warned. 

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis stemmed from widespread bank failures, triggering a decade of austerity that burdened consumers. The next crisis could dwarf it, as governments grapple with insolvency, threatening even broader economic fallout. France, Germany and the U.K. all look like early leaders in this race to the bottom!

An Economic Advisor to President Putin didn’t pull any punches this week when he said “the West’s geopolitical gamble is entering its decisive phase”. Referring to the ‘failed experiment’ that is unchecked immigration policy and the fifty year fiat monetary system.

At this chaotic time, Bitcoin’s path is unclear. 

Some crypto experts claim the four-year cycle is dead, predicting “up forever”; while others foresee a late 2025 peak followed by a sharp 2026 drop, possibly below $50K. Responses are all over the map – some are offloading, some are positioning and others are waiting for a clearer trading signal. Always DYOR.

This Bitcoin cycle has been a bit odd and different – it started with ETFs and Bitcoin hitting a new high before the halving, but has so far lacked the parabolic post-halving surge that saw an 800% run last cycle.

Institutional adoption is up, with over 1 million BTC now in corporate treasuries. ETFs are clearly attracting new investors. Growing government support and regulatory clarity is a strong tailwind. Corrections are shallower, gains steadier. It could signal a shift – or a delayed crash.

The next 2-3 months should bring clarity. 

If the traditional four-year cycle theory holds, Bitcoin likely faces a bear market beginning sometime in Q4. In this scenario, a broader market driven liquidity event could be the catalyst, and the final blow for BTC bulls. 

Alternatively, if easy money and QE floods the markets with new liquidity and euphoria, and governments somehow steer the ship away from the rocks, we could witness a monumental run. Stay tuned.

It’s certainly time to tread carefully.

Market sentiment has paired back to: Neutral

Crypto market moves: 

• Bitcoin is wrestling with the prior breakout zone of $112k – 114k, trying to decide if it’s key support or key resistance for the coming weeks – and looking to the broader markets for direction as we near the end of the typical 4 year cycle.
• BTC key momentum indicators have paired back with monthly RSI now at 69% – ideally we want to see this back above 70 and rising.
• ETF inflows were choppy but noticeably lower than prior months (April – July).
• Broader market interest has also dropped back significantly as Google search volume for both “Bitcoin” and “Cryptocurrency” is bouncing along the bottom again!
• Bitcoin dominance has remained below 60%, which gives continued hopes for an Altseason soon – but will likely require a definitive and sustained uptrend from Bitcoin. 
• ETH:BTC ratio remains just below 4%.
• The total crypto market cap is hovering around $4 trillion as investor confidence has bounced back from Fear to Neutral, and most top 100 projects finished in the green.
• The big winner of the week is Avalanche (AVAX) up 15%, fuelled by ETF speculation and growing investor interest in its expanding DeFi ecosystem.
• The surprise mover of the week is DOGE (Dogecoin) +12%, gaining momentum on ETF approval in the U.S. news.
• The big loser of the week is TRX (TRON) -1%, as its founder has been otherwise occupied with a WLFI token ‘trading restrictions’ controversy (more in following section).

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space

The crypto market is in a grinding consolidation phase again and teetering between risk-on and risk-off mode, as investor sentiment has visibly dropped across multiple key momentum indicators. Traders seem to be awaiting a clear signal from the markets as rate cut optimism is met with concerns about a weakening economy and unresolved geo-political tensions.

Publicly traded companies now hold over 1 million Bitcoin for the first time, nearly 5% of the total supply, not counting those that have been lost forever.

The Trump family’s wealth soared by $1.3 billion last week following the listing of American Bitcoin (ABTC) on the NASDAQ and the launch of World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token, pushing their collective net worth to over $7.7 billion. Let’s call it ‘presidential perks’. 

There were high hopes that Michael Saylor’s Strategy would be the next big crypto company to join the S&P 500 index, with some market analysts assigning up to a 91% chance, but not this time. Snubbed?

That didn’t stop Michael Saylor from joining the ranks of the world’s richest individuals, debuting on the Bloomberg Billionaire Index this week with an estimated net worth of $7.37 billion. As he hints at buying more Bitcoin!

Nasdaq appears to be increasing oversight of firms raising capital to buy crypto, now requiring shareholder votes and greater disclosures, with potential suspension or delisting for noncompliance – after 154 firms announced plans for $98.4B in crypto purchases this year.

Binance Trust Wallet, with over 200 million users, announced the launch of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) unlocking access to U.S. stocks and ETFs for users around the globe.

Galaxy has enabled existing shareholders of its SEC-registered Class A common equity to move their shares from traditional format into on-chain versions on the Solana blockchain – the first time in history that a publicly listed U.S. equity security has been tokenized.

Stripe officially announced its partnership with venture capital firm Paradigm, revealing a new Layer 1 blockchain called Tempo which is EVM compatible and designed for high volume payments use cases with opt-in private transactions.

In what is being called the largest supply chain attack in history, hackers have compromised widely used JavaScript software libraries with injected malware that is reportedly designed to steal crypto by swapping wallet addresses and intercepting transactions. All crypto users are being urged to take extreme care and double check all transactions.

In other crypto news…

• The Federal Reserve announced they will host a conference on payments innovation on 21 October.

• Polymarket was given the ‘green light’ by regulators for its platform to go live in the U.S.

• World Liberty Financial blacklisted Justin Sun’s address with $107 million WLFI tokens, raising concerns over ‘trading restrictions.’

• Binance founder CZ said Hong Kong has the potential to become a major hub for digital assets, rivalling markets like the US and the United Arab Emirates.

• Tether CEO has denied recent rumors it is offloading Bitcoin holdings to buy gold, reaffirming its strategy of allocating profits into assets like “Bitcoin, gold, and land.”

• Stablecoins like USDT have replaced Venezuela’s Bolívar as inflation soars to 229%.

• OpenSea has kicked off its NFT reserve by buying a piece of digital art history from the CryptoPunk collection.

• The U.S. approved its first Memecoin ETF as the Rex-Osprey Doge ETF (DOJE) is set to make its debut on Thursday.

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🌎 Macro news TLDR: Gold hasn’t lost its shine

The U.S. dollar has shed 50% of its value against gold over the past three years alone. 

Investors are fleeing government IOU’s (aka bonds) worldwide, propelling gold to new all-time highs as the ultimate safe-haven asset. 

Back in 2015, Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig dismissed gold as a “pet rock” when it was trading at $1,096 per ounce. Today, prices have more than tripled, and that rock is rocketing. Gold recently eclipsed the Euro to claim the title of the world’s second-largest reserve asset, a milestone not seen since 1996.

Monetary policy is increasingly politicised; governments are slashing interest rates to mask reckless spending and ballooning debt tilting the scales more decisively in gold’s favor.

Markets are now bracing for the Federal Reserve to kick off its next easing cycle, which will likely steepen the yield curve, weaken the Dollar and provide new tail winds for hard assets.

Whilst Bitcoin boasts the top performing assets of the past decade with over 26,000% returns, Gold has grown by more than twice Bitcoin’s total market capitalization over that same time.

In a bold pivot, El Salvador snapped up $50 million in gold last week – its first purchase since 1990 – blending it with digital assets to diversify and stabilize its economy amid global uncertainty. As the first nation to embrace Bitcoin as legal tender, El Salvador recently scaled back its crypto policies to secure an IMF loan, proving the need for a balanced approach.

Gold’s resurgence underscores a critical truth: in a world of uncertainty and eroding fiat value, a diversified hard assets strategy offers a resilient hedge, securing wealth for the bold and the prudent alike.

Economic news from the Americas

U.S. job openings dropped by 176,000 to 7.18 million in July, bolstering fears of a weakening labor market. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported just 22,000 jobs were added in August, well below expectations for 75,000. Bringing the year-to-date total to 598,000 jobs, compared with 1,144,000 for the first eight months of last year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported for the year preceding March 2025. Ouch!

The White House said it expects the Fed to consider larger interest rate cuts this month after disappointing jobs numbers. FedWatch is currently giving 93% chance of a 25 bps cut and 7% for a 50 bps cut. 

A PWC survey shows holiday spending in the U.S. is set for its steepest drop since the Covid pandemic, as shoppers pull back due to economic uncertainty.

Treasury Secretary Bessent has warned of “massive refunds” (could top $1 trillion) if the Supreme Court rules against Trump’s tariff policies. Interesting to note that 86% of tariff revenue collected so far has been paid by American businesses and consumers – aah this is how tariffs work, the importer pays!

Google bounced back after a U.S. judge ruled that it doesn’t need to sell off its Android operating system or Chrome browser. Investors breathed a collective sigh of relief.

Venezuela’s President Maduro has accused the U.S. of attempting to carry out ‘regime change,’ and warning that he will respond in kind to any attack, after a significant build up of naval forces in-and-around the southern Caribbean. Drug cartels, oil and/or something more going on there? 

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

Another French revolution could be brewing as a viral French X account tapped into rising generational tensions with the slogan “Nicolas foots the bill,” saying that better-off Baby Boomers should do more to fix the country’s huge deficit.

More humiliation for French President Macron as his government lost a vote of no confidence earlier this week, collapsing and plunging the country into chaos.   

Russian President Putin has expressed his willingness for a face-to-face meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, but only if the summit is held in Moscow. Unlikely. 

Russian President Putin also said that any Western troops deployed to Ukraine would be legitimate targets for Moscow to attack, in a warning to Kyiv’s European allies as they discuss measures for its future protection.

U.S. President Trump is reportedly ready to move to a second phase of sanctioning Russia and/or its oil buyers over the war in Ukraine. Watch this space!

And in Asia Pacific…

Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba announced he will step down as leader of the world’s fourth-largest economy amid growing tensions within his party and about his proposed immigration policies.

Chinese President Xi Jinping flexed full military might at a massive parade in Beijing, while warning that the world is facing a choice between peace or war. Attendees included Russia’s President Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. Curiously, John Key and Helen Clark were also in attendance.

China’s shipments to the U.S. plunged 33% in August while overall exports growth slowed to its weakest level in six months, as frontloading activity lost momentum.

After cosying up with Russia and China at the SCO meeting last week, India has reportedly started diversifying away from U.S. treasury bills. Once a key security ally in the Pacific Region, President Trump has now labelled trade ties with India a “totally one-sided disaster.” 

Australia’s federal government debt is predicted to hit $1 trillion in September, as economists urge the re-elected Albanese government to prioritise getting the budget in order or else risk losing the nation’s AAA credit rating. Yikes!

New Zealand’s median property value declined for the fifth straight month in August – with unemployment likely not at its peak, it’s unlikely people will be rushing out to bid up house prices for the rest of 2025. Bring on 2026!

That’s a wrap for this week!

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