Weekly Market Update: The Rules Are Changing!

Bitcoin on the winning side

Story of the week: the bromance between President Trump and Elon Musk is officially over as it imploded in a fiery public spat, shattering their once-unbreakable, albeit very short lived, alliance. 

This clash erupted over Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” a tax and spending package Musk slammed as a “disgusting abomination” on X, claiming it will only balloon the deficit. Trump hit back, accusing Musk of sour grapes over axed electric vehicle tax credits, while Musk fired off wild claims, alleging Trump’s ties to the “Epstein files” and endorsing calls for his impeachment. 

By the end of last week, Trump was threatening to gut billions in SpaceX and Tesla contracts, prompting Musk to briefly float decommissioning NASA’s critical Dragon spacecraft, before backpedaling.

The fallout was swift and brutal. Tesla’s stock tanked 14% and the crypto markets went into a waterfall sell-off!

Trump then vowed to ditch his Tesla Model S and told NBC their relationship was “over.” Musk, undeterred, teased launching a rival “America Party” on X, polling 80% support. Allies like Steve Bannon called for seizing SpaceX and for Musk’s deportation. 

Social media buzzed with “Bad Blood” memes, but the feud exposed cracks in the GOP base and raised alarms about America’s reliance on Musk’s business empire for space and tech. Reconciliation seems unlikely at this point (odds on Polymarket).

Many saw the Trump-Musk split as inevitable and just another chapter in a familiar saga. But it’s much more than just a billionaire bust-up! It echoes the brash, pioneering, gunslinging spirit that shaped America’s character, forged through relentless determination against the odds to create an industrial empire.

America has drifted from those pillars of its prosperity, embracing instead a hyper-financialized economy. This shift prioritizes speculation over tangible assets, exploiting the dollar’s global reserve currency status to print money and import goods far exceeding domestic output, undermining long-term economic stability.

The once ‘sure bets’ are now a little less sure. The U.S. dollar is shaky under a mountain of national debt. Treasuries, once rock-solid, are struggling to outrun inflation. Equities are over-inflated vs actual share of trade. And property is priced beyond the average family’s dreams.

How to keep on the winning side of the trade?

Amid the changing global power structures, safeguarding and growing wealth feels like betting on a foggy chessboard. The next decade’s moves are anyone’s guess, making capital protection a high-stakes decision.

In an era of shifting alliances and much uncertainty, both precious metals and Bitcoin are champions! 

Gold, the age-old fortress against inflation, has already surged forward with Silver following behind, clearing a path for Bitcoin’s rise. Institutions, with their noses to the shifting winds, are amassing Bitcoin treasuries and rolling out new blockchain backed services at a frenetic pace, wagering on a future where scarcity and decentralisation outsmart the chaos.

The rules of the game are changing… How will you play?

Market sentiment is still holding firmly in: Greed.

Highlights this week: 

• Another very volatile week in the crypto markets as Trump vs Musk and China trade deal news caused Bitcoin price to swing from a low of just over $100k to a high over $110k.
• BTC is trading at $110,146 at time of writing, within 2% of a new all time high!
• Bitcoin dominance is holding strong at 64%, leaving many traders to wonder if the long awaited Altseason is ever coming back?
• BTC weekly RSI key momentum indicator is tending back up to high 60’s showing growing bullish optimism – we want to see this continue up for a sustained move.
• ETF inflows have remained relatively muted this week, but we expect to see this pick up to reflect market price action in the coming days.
• Fear and Greed dropped to a low of 45 on Friday in the midst of the Trump vs Musk feud, but has recovered strongly to 72%. 
• Total crypto market cap is touching $3.6 trillion as most of the top 100 is back in the green off the latest price rally.
• The big winner of the week goes to Uniswap up +29.5%
• The big loser this week is Stacks down -8.7% after the Alex Protocol exploit (DeFi project on Stacks blockchain). 

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more. 

Highlights from the crypto space:

Crypto markets took a hit at the end of last week as the Trump vs Musk feud escalated like a bad soap opera, but Bitcoin managed to hold above $100k and lead a strong recovery into the new week as bullish optimism returned to the market. 

JPMorgan is preparing to accept Bitcoin ETFs as collateral for loans globally, in a remarkable shift toward crypto integration across traditional finance.

Twenty One Capital is intensifying competition with Michael Saylor’s (Micro)Strategy – last week, CEO Jack Mallers proudly announced, “our proof of reserves is now live! Anyone, anywhere can audit and verify that we hold the BTC we claim to own. Try doing that with gold!”

Circle Internet Group, issuer of USDC Stablecoin, priced its IPO above the expected range at $31 per share, giving the company a total market value of $6.8 billion. CRCL shares then reached a high of $123.51, just shy of quadrupling the IPO price!

Gemini, the crypto company founded by the Winklevoss twins, is also eyeing up the stock market having confidentially listed their IPO in the U.S. Watch this space!

A digital asset company called Magic Eden has collaborated with the firm behind $TRUMP meme coin to announce the launch of Official $TRUMP Wallet – but the President’s sons, who run Trump’s crypto businesses, say they have no involvement with the offering.

Netcapital, a fintech company listed on the Nasdaq, has acquired the crypto-native protocol Mixie in a deal that has been described as a bridge between traditional and decentralized finance.

The Swiss Central Bank has disclosed an additional $38 million purchase of (Micro)Strategy stock as Michael Saylor purchased another 1,045 Bitcoins – taking the total treasury to 582,000 following a $1 billion capital raise.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Michael Saylor said: “Winter’s not coming back, we’re past that phase. Bitcoin is not going to zero, it’s going to a million dollars.”

In stark contrast, Saifedean Ammous, author of the “Bitcoin Standard”, has issued a warning “If your business model can’t survive an 80% Bitcoin drawdown, rework it now. BTC has crashed -70% to -80% before, and it can happen again.”

In a latest video, famous crypto trader MMCrypto pointed out that Gold, Silver and Bitcoin are on a remarkably similar trajectory:

Financial crime and money-laundering regulator AUSTRAC has announced new controls on crypto ATM operators, including $5,000 transaction limits.

According to a new survey by Australian exchange CoinSpot, Baby Boomers are the fastest-growing demographic in crypto, with their numbers doubling in the space of a year, as they warm to crypto despite some lingering suspicions.

In other crypto news…

• Trump Media has filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF as they prepare to join the increasingly competitive field of crypto investment products.

• Pump.fun plans to raise $1 billion in a token sale, based on a $4 billion valuation.

• Crypto exchange MexC is rumoured to be working on a 1000x leverage product. Good luck to anyone willing to play those odds! 

• The Bitcoin Family have revamped their security after the recent run of crypto kidnappings.

• Uber once again said that they are considering crypto payments – maybe this time?

• Coinbase has released a new Bitcoin ad – it’s really good!

Too much market noise can be overwhelming. Dollar-cost averaging helps cut through the chaos with simple, steady steps that can add up to big wins over the long run.

Discover how it works:

🌎 Macro news TLDR: A very different future

The U.S. national debt is ballooning by about $1 trillion every 180 days and on track to hit $40 trillion by the end of next year!

To put that into perspective: a million seconds ago was the 1st of June. A billion seconds ago was October 1993… and a trillion seconds ago? About 30,000 B.C.

The “Big, Beautiful Bill” will only add to this debt burden – and the penny seems to have dropped for Elon Musk this past week.

In 2011 Warren Buffett introduced a bold idea to enforce fiscal discipline in Washington. This was brought back into the spotlight last week by Musk during his very public feud with President Trump. Buffett’s proposal calls for a law that makes congress accountable for the federal deficit: if it surpasses 3% of GDP, incumbent members of Congress would be barred from reelection.

It is becoming increasingly evident that the challenge lies not only in identifying what can be done but more importantly what leaders are actually willing to do.

High interest rates and surging bond yields with a weakening dollar signal a looming crisis, with “the backbone of society” in the firing line. The dollar has already lost 20–25% of its purchasing power in just 5 years since January 2020 – erasing years of savings in half a decade.

Whilst the U.S. is focused on servicing its debt, the developing world is rising fast and brazenly reclaiming its voice and agency. Investment into real, tangible industries – factories, roads, ports – are propelling second-world economies as they position for a very different future.

Economic news from the Americas

Days after departing the White House, Elon Musk launched an all out attack on the Trump-backed “Big, Beautiful Bill” making its way through Congress, saying “I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore, this massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong.”

Odds of a U.S. recession have plummeted on Polymarket from a high of 66% in early May to just 26% (at time of writing), signaling growing optimism that the worst of the trade war has passed. 

The U.S. jobs report from last week told a slightly different story indicating a cooling labor market amid fears of stagflation. 

President Trump has ramped up his calls for Fed Chair Powell to lower interest rates by as much as 100 bps at the next meeting – Polymarket is showing odds for “no change” at 97%.

China’s exports to the U.S. showed their steepest drop in more than 5 years, down over 34% in May, but their overall trade surplus remains intact.

The national guard arrived in L.A. to contain large scale immigration protests that caused apocalyptic scenes over the weekend. California Governor Newsom says he is working to “clean up Trump’s mess” as LA braces for further protests – and President Trump threatens his arrest.

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

President Trump spoke with Russian President Putin last week, following Ukraine’s big attack, and wrote on Truth Social: “It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace.”

President Putin confirmed that he has rejected Ukraine’s offer of a summit with President Zelensky and an immediate ceasefire, saying “Who has negotiations with terrorists?” Retaliation attacks started over the weekend.

The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 bps to 2% last week and signalled that a pause could be next, as they are now well-positioned to deal with global economic uncertainty fuelled by U.S. tariff policy.

The Swiss Franc has appreciated 10% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of this year, putting deflationary pressure on the Swiss economy – analysts are expecting it could be the first big economy to return to negative interest rates.

German Chancellor Merz’s meeting with U.S. President Trump was dramatically overshadowed by the spat with Elon Musk, which was seen as a win for Merz. “Being sidelined is not necessarily always a bad thing” – having avoided his own showdown in the Oval Office.

And in Asia Pacific…

Tariff threats seem to have lost their sting as markets trended up despite a post from President Trump confirming slow progress on a trade deal with China – official talks are ongoing in London and analysts are optimistic that a deal is in progress. 

China has warned the United States against “playing with fire” over Taiwan in response to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth calling the Asian power a “threat to the region.”

Australia’s economy grew by 1.3% and less than expected in the first quarter – the RBA already slashed rates in May to the lowest level in two years hoping to stimulate growth. 

In NZ, median house prices dropped to $818,132 in May, according to CoreLogic’s Home Value Index, showing a decline of -0.9% compared to April, and -1.6% compared to May last year.

Auckland property owners are now able to see their latest Auckland Council Rating Valuations, most show a significant reduction with the average Capital Valuation declining by 9% across the region.

That’s a wrap for this week!

Stay tuned for the next update.

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