Weekly Market Update: Clash of Convictions

Over the past week, the crypto market has been a swirl of bullish and bearish signals. Events like the Bitcoin 2025 conference have fueled optimism, while global macro uncertainties keep investors on edge. What does this mean for Bitcoin and the broader crypto landscape? Where do we go from here?

Let’s dive into a debate:

Moderator: Welcome to the Bitcoin Clash of Convictions. In one camp, the Bitcoin Bear, predicting an imminent price correction. In the other, the Bitcoin Bull, championing a sustained price rally. Let’s go! Bear, lead with your case.

The Bear’s Opening: Bitcoin’s a shaky tower over $100k, primed to topple. The four-year cycle looms large and 2021’s crash laughs at “this time is different.” Saylor’s Strategy is a ticking time bomb, claiming over half a million BTC without on-chain proof – don’t trust, verify! Solana, Sui and Circle fund freezes expose centralization flaws. Both GameStop and Trump Media stocks tanked post-BTC buys. The market can sense that a correction is coming. 

Bitcoin Bull’s Opening: Bitcoin’s bullish catalysts keep stacking by the day – from mass adoption to macro tailwinds, the stage is set for a surge to new heights. Senator Lummis confirmed Trump supports adding 1 million BTC to the U.S. strategic reserve. Nation-states are eyeing their own stash: Panama, Pakistan and even the U.K. The SEC just dropped one of its last ‘Gensler era’ crypto enforcement actions. Wall Street’s diving in headfirst, rolling out new BTC funds almost every week – example: Cantor Fitzgerald’s new Bitcoin lending program. M2 money supply is growing fast and the Fed pivot is coming soon. Full speed ahead!

Bitcoin Bear’s Rebuttal: The Bull is riding a wave of hype, but Bitcoin’s a bubble that’s ready to pop on the next macro downdraft – cue escalation in Russia-Ukraine war or the next phase of U.S. bond market meltdown. Senator Lummis’ Bitcoin Act enthusiasm is just political posturing for the conference crowd. Don’t get distracted – China is the real story and they’re about to tighten their crypto ban, not loosen it! And let’s not forget the quantum computing risk. Bitcoin’s not a rocket; it’s a rickety raft entering a storm.

Bitcoin Bull’s Rebuttal: The Bear is throwing darts at an armored juggernaut. China’s crypto ban? Yesterday’s news – hashrate has already shifted to Texas and beyond. Strategy is front running institutional adoption as blockchain’s transparent ledger speaks for itself. Major banks are racing to claim their stake – Bank of America will be next in line. Wall Street sees the writing on the wall: the US dollar is weakening and the bond market is faltering, that is a green light for capital to flow into the world’s hardest asset. Bitcoin is unstoppable.

Bitcoin Bear’s Final Shot: Bitcoin has had a nice run, but it’s done… Cycles, China, macro uncertainty and Saylor’s unverified claims. Safe-haven cred is flimsy – U.S. dollar and bonds rule in times of crisis. Crash incoming.

Bitcoin Bull’s Final Shot: Time and again, critics declare Bitcoin’s demise, yet it emerges from each. Forget the usual growth plateau – its momentum, fueled by institutional ETF inflows, corporate and government adoption and global uncertainty suggests no ceiling in sight. Bitcoin’s poised to smash the S-curve and keep charging.

Moderator: A fierce tug-of-war! The winner… we’ll let you (the reader) and the market decide.

Market sentiment has softened a little but still showing: Greed

Highlights this week: 

• Macro uncertainties and a mix of bullish and bearish signals caused a pullback and consolidation led by Bitcoin trading in a range between $103.1k and $110.7k.
• Bitcoin closed the month of May at a record high and has been 28 days above $100k (at time of writing).
• BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF experienced $430 million in outflows on May 30, ending its 34-day inflow streak amid the BTC pullback from all-time high.
• Bitcoin balances on exchanges remain at an all time low, suggesting that there may be more room to run in this bull market.
• Bitcoin RSI momentum indicator slipped back to 64 for the week, as BTC market dominance held strong at the same level.
• Investor sentiment took a small hit but remained in ‘greed’ – despite not seeing the pick up in Google search volumes to support recent price action.
• Total crypto market cap remains just below $3.5 trillion as most of the top 100 by market cap cryptos finished in the red.
• The big winner of the week is MKR growing +10.7% on a bullish technical breakout as the token undergoes a rebrand to SKY.
• The big loser this week is BONK down -18.5% as risk on appetite declines. 

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more. 

Highlights from the crypto space

Over the past few days, crypto markets faced renewed turbulence following Trump’s new tariff threats alongside the escalating Russia-Ukraine war, triggering nearly $1 billion in liquidations and pushing Bitcoin below $105,000. 

Trader James Wynn’s caused another spectacle this week as he went ‘all in’ with his $87 million Bitcoin profit on Hyperliquid with 40x leverage ending in a $100 million liquidation – blaming market manipulation. Potentially validating the late ‘profit taking’ stage of this current BTC cycle.

The CEO of Steak n Shake, a fast food franchise with nearly 400 stores, presented at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas last week, saying: “Bitcoin is faster than credit cards – we’re saving 50% in processing fees and seeing a spike in growth.”

Senator Lummis has reintroduced her Bitcoin Act and suggested that President Trump is in support of it – requiring the U.S. government to acquire 1 million BTC over 5 years for the strategic reserve. Fingers crossed that it passes this time! 

Circle Internet Group, behind Stablecoin USDC, has filed for an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange – releasing 24 million shares that are expected to be priced between $24 and $26, trading under the ticker ‘CRCL’.

Tether is launching on the Bitcoin lightning network stating: “USDT is 80% of all the payments volume in the digital assets industry”.  

Wall Street investment bank, Cantor Fitzgerald, has launched its Bitcoin lending business, completing initial trades in May and planning to provide up to $2 billion in institutional lending.

Michael Saylor has advised against institutions publishing proof-of-reserves to show their crypto holdings, saying “it’s a bad idea” that increases the risk of a security breach. Strategy has never disclosed its Bitcoin addresses, which has led many people to wonder if the company actually owns the amount it claims to hold.

Shares of GameStop tumbled last week on news of their long awaited first Bitcoin purchase. Speaking at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen said “Bitcoin and gold can be hedges against global currency devaluation and systemic risk.”

SharpLink Gaming, a U.S.-based digital marketing company serving the sports betting and iGaming sectors, announced a $425 million private placement to set up an Ethereum treasury.

The SEC has dropped its lawsuit against Binance accused of illegally serving U.S. customers and misusing customer funds – ending one of the last outstanding crypto enforcement actions. Does anyone miss Gary Gensler?

The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance also announced that certain blockchain staking activities do not involve the offering of securities – could we see staking ETFs soon?

The Trump administration rescinded a Biden-era guidance urging employers to be cautious before adding cryptocurrency and related digital assets like Bitcoin to 401k plans.

Circle has frozen $57.6 million of USDC on Solana blockchain allegedly connected with the Libra team, sparking concerns over decentralisation and putting some pressure on the SOL price.

BlackRock issued a rare warning in its iShares Bitcoin Trust filing, that if quantum tech advances far enough it could break the cryptographic systems that secure Bitcoin – undermining the viability of the cryptographic algorithms used in digital assets and the global tech stack.

Rumours are swirling on social media that China has banned ownership of Bitcoin and crypto again – at this point unsubstantiated.

Netflix is having another go at the crypto business, filming a limited series on the rise and fall of crypto exchange FTX and its disgraced founder, Sam Bankman-Fried. 

In other crypto news…

• Pakistan has announced a Bitcoin strategic reserve in a significant shift from its earlier position that cryptocurrencies would never be legalized.

• Solana is now live on Metamask Extension.

• Trump Media raised another $2.5 billion last week to buy Bitcoin. 

• Satoshi Nakamoto surpassed Bill Gates last week to become the 12th richest person in the world as his 1.1 million Bitcoin stash is now worth $113.8 billion.

• UK leader Nigel Farage presented a draft Cryptocurrency Bill at the Bitcoin 2025 conference with plans for the U.K. to become a crypto powerhouse.

• The man who lost 8,000 BTC in a landfill, has a new plan to help fund the recovery by tokenizing 1,675 of those coins as ordinals.

• Following his Bitcoin 2025 presentation, Ross Ulbricht, founder of the SilkRoad marketplace, received 300 BTC in his donation wallet!

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🌎 Macro news TLDR: Can U.S. national debt be tamed?

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, issued a warning this week that went largely unnoticed – he warned that the US bond market will “crack” under the weight of the country’s rising debt, urging the Trump administration to place America on a more sustainable trajectory.

But Elon Musk and DOGE have that all under control, right? 

Well… not quite. After a bold start and lofty $2 trillion savings pledge, Elon Musk has bowed out of his DOGE role, delivering just $175 billion in cuts.

As U.S. national debt nears $37 trillion, it’s a monster that certainly won’t vanish overnight – but can it be tamed at all? 

Options are limited…

1. Slash entitlements like Social Security and Medicare without breaking the safety net.
2. Plug the corporate tax loopholes and boost tax revenue without strangling growth.
3. Trim defense spending in an increasingly bipolar world, even if Congress throws a fit.
4. Supercharge GDP by boosting the economy with immigration and infrastructure spending without causing a culture-war and hyper-inflation.
5. Keep kicking the can down the road with low interest rates and ‘money printing’ to avoid a costly fiscal meltdown.

Options 1-4 are incredibly painful and politically unpopular. Option 5 only works until it doesn’t. 

It’s a political tightrope and there is no easy way out – time is ticking and half-measuress simply won’t cut it!

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has himself warned “the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path.. That just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy… and we’re effectively borrowing from future generations.”

Economic news from the Americas

The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump exceeded his authority by imposing sweeping tariffs on imports from nearly every country, using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – this ruling was then temporarily suspended by the U.S. Court of Appeals – the situation remains uncertain.

During a press conference last week, President Trump appeared unimpressed when a reporter questioned him about a viral meme acronym, “TACO trade,” which mockingly stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” referencing his trade policy reversals.

In a move that further inflamed trade tensions and criticism from global partners, at a rally in Pennsylvania on Friday, President Trump announced that he would double tariffs on steel imports to 50%.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed in an interview on Fox News that “talks with China have stalled”. China then went on to say that the US has “severely violated” their trade truce and strong measures will be taken to defend its own interests.

A meeting occurred between President Trump and Chair Jermone Powell, with the Fed stressing that the future path of monetary policy was not discussed and they remain committed to “careful, objective and non-political analysis.” Notwithstanding the delay in rate cuts, U.S. M2 money supply is touching new all-time highs at $21.86 trillion.

The U.S. dollar slid towards a three-year low to open the week (even without rate cuts in sight) and US govt bonds came under renewed pressure as weak manufacturing data combined with growing warnings over the country’s debt pile began to unnerve investors.

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

Ukraine and Russia were blaming each other for a fire that broke out at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant last week. Under growing pressure from U.S. President Trump, Moscow proposed a new round of direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Monday.

On Sunday, in a major escalation of the war, Ukraine unleashed “Operation Spiderweb” hitting Russian airbases with 117 drones, damaging and destroying 41 aircraft, including strategic bombers, and costing Russia over $7 billion.

Europe is now holding its breath as it awaits Russia’s response – Putin was quoted saying “Ukraine has struck our air bases where strategic bombers are stationed. This act shows they are not interested in peace. They have prepared their own end with this action. There are no more red lines, they will regret this”.

Prime Minister Starmer boldly declared that the United Kingdom is moving to “war-fighting readiness” as markets moved to more of a risk off mode again, driving a rally in gold, silver and oil – despite the expected OPEC+ rate hike in July.

In the Netherlands, far-right leader Geert Wilders’ PVV party left the governing coalition over disagreements on immigration policy, in a move that is set to topple the government and will likely lead to new elections.

And in Asia Pacific…

IMF data projects India’s GDP to reach $4.187 trillion in 2025, surpassing Japan to become the fourth largest economy with strong tailwinds supporting its growth story – but needing to undertake several reforms to ensure that economic expansion is sustained.

Australia’s inflation rate remained unchanged in April at 2.4% for a third straight month. The reading was slightly higher than the market estimate of 2.3% but remained within the central bank’s inflation target as they continued to shift focus to economic growth.

In NZ, the RBNZ cut the OCR by the expected -25 basis points last week, but the next decision is not as clear. BNZ jumped the gun to pass on the full cut to their floating rate whilst the other big banks only passed on -20 bps.

The NZ housing market appears likely to remain overstocked over winter which is likely to continue keeping a lid on prices – new listings continued to rise, up 2.9% compared to May last year and up 11.4% compared to April this year.

The ANZ Business Outlook Survey is showing that the economy is recovering, but it’s still hard going – business confidence fell 12 points to +37 in May. There’s still plenty of room for volatility and it’s “an environment in which the RBNZ can support growth”.

That’s a wrap for this week!

Stay tuned for the next update.

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