Weekly Market Update: Jabs & Uppercuts in Global Markets

Is the USD’s future decentralised?

Think of the global marketplace as a boxing ring, sweat-soaked and unforgiving, with the U.S. as a reigning heavyweight champion, gloves fraying and desperate to defend its title. It’s throwing wild haymakers – sanctions, chip subsidies, tech bans, movie tariffs – to stagger rivals like China while dodging jabs from the EU and India. 

The crowd’s slowly turning, the U.S. dollar’s wobbling like a dazed fighter and America’s punches are losing some steam as they land with less precision and power. The battle isn’t for a title but for a civilization’s supremacy. 

The U.S. is against the ropes, trying to muscle past China’s manufacturing might while roaring “Made in the USA”. Sanctions are sharp uppercuts aimed at Russia and Iran, but they’re bruising America’s own knuckles – while on the sidelines, BRICS nations are countering and scheming to sidestep the dollar’s reign. 

The Fed’s holding up interest rates to choke inflation, but it’s like wrapping a busted rib in tape mid-fight; global investors flinch, and emerging markets buckle under debt.

The dollar, once an iron fist, is now a shaky jab weakened by $36.8 trillion of debt – it’s still the world’s reserve currency but under siege as trade partners eye alternatives and safehaven assets. 

America’s military and Wall Street give it reach, but every move feels like a lunge, with younger fighters starting to circle. China’s a disciplined challenger, weaving past blows, stacking gold and trade routes. The EU’s a scrappy welterweight, landing regulatory hooks and inking energy deals. India’s the cagey underdog, snagging tech jobs and ducking alliances with a smirk. 

Oil is the slick mat that’s tripping everyone – as OPEC+ feints production spikes, the U.S. clamours to desperately keep its footing. It’s a chaotic slugfest, and America’s still drawing blood, but its legs are shaky and the dollar’s aura is fading fast. A bleeding wound – once an emblem of unrivaled dominance, the USD is now a vulnerability, eyed warily by investing titans like Warren Buffett.

Enter the Fourth Turning, Strauss and Howe’s prophecy of a 20-year crisis where societies face oblivion or rebirth. The 2008 crash rang the bell; now, in the mid-2020s, America’s in the late rounds, battered not just by rivals but by its own demons – distrust, polarization and culture war. 

And here’s the twist: as the dollar staggers, a new fighter is warming up in the shadows, a lean, agile up-and-comer who is ready to jump in. Bitcoin, Ethereum and decentralized finance are a potential knockout blow to fiat’s dominance. If the dollar keeps slipping, and trust in central banks keeps tanking, crypto could be the underdog that flips the ring upside down. 

Can America deliver another USD haymaker to retain the world title for a while longer? Or will it pass on the gloves to a more decentralized future, with USD backed stablecoins taking the ring?

Market sentiment is holding up nicely and still showing: Greed.

Highlights this week: 

• Bitcoin available on exchanges just hit a 5 year low!
• BTC price has continued to show relative strength closing the week at $94.3k after trading firmly in the mid $90k range ($92k-98k).
• Bitcoin ETFs had nearly $2 billion of inflows over the past week.
• Total crypto market cap is back over $3T as BTC sits comfortably above 65% market dominance as focus seems to have shifted back to fundamentals and utility.
• Investor sentiment is holding up in the ‘Greed’ zone but we haven’t yet seen a buying frenzy as the key BTC $100k price hurdle remains in place.
• The performance of other top 10 cryptos has remained slightly muted this week as ETH appears stuck well below $2000, XRP is still in the low $2 range and Solana is trying to break back above $150.
• Most of the crypto market finished in the red as investors seemingly wait for a clearer signal that the bull run is back on!
• The surprise winner of the week is QNT up +16.0% after .
• The big loser this week is TRUMP down -14.4% after the big price run up last week (more news in following section). 

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more. 

Highlights from the crypto space:

Big tech has reversed its April selloff which is further boosting crypto investor confidence as Bitcoin continues to outperform.

The U.S. tech and growth stocks known as the “Magnificent Seven” have regained their footing after a challenging start to the year, but persistently high interest rates in the U.S. will continue to weigh heavily on their future earnings potential.

Eric Trump was one of 200+ speakers at the world’s largest cryptocurrency conference Token 2049 this past weekend in Dubai – attracting over 15,000 attendees from 4,000+ companies. 

A notable comment from BlackRock at the event is that Bitcoin ETFs are seeing a lot of new investment, but from big organizations and financial advisors rather than individual investors.

Bitcoin mining has become more difficult and unprofitable – as a single BTC now costs the largest U.S. public mining companies over $82,000 USD, which is nearly double the previous quarter.

For German miners, who are in the midst of a power crisis, the cost to mine one is nearly $200,000 USD. Quite simply, the BTC price needs to go up or miners will go bust!

It’s no surprise that Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer and Elizabeth Warren, have withdrawn support for a bipartisan Stablecoin bill to negotiate more favourable terms from Republicans – prompting an ‘open letter’ from the crypto community.

There is no shortage of TradFi (traditional finance) firms looking to enter the growing crypto space – recently Morgan Stanley announced that it is planning to launch cryptocurrency trading for its e-trade clients and now $7 trillion asset manager Charles Schwab is planning to launch spot crypto trading over the next 12 months.

Mastercard is launching support for Stablecoin payments across its network, partnering with OKX, Circle (USDC) and Stablecoin issuer Paxos, to allow consumers to settle transactions using digital assets.

Not to be outdone, Visa and Bridge are partnering on a new product that will allow developers to offer stablecoin-backed Visa cards – to be available first in multiple South American countries.

Mastercard has also launched Agent Pay, an artificial intelligence (AI) driven payments program that enables enhanced generative AI conversations by integrating seamless payments experiences, for example: someone planning a party could chat with an AI agent to curate and purchase outfits and accessories or plan a venue.

Coinbase has launched a Bitcoin Yield Fund aiming to offer exposure for institutional investors outside the US – and has also increased the limit of its bitcoin-backed loans to $1 million, 10-times the previous limit of $100,000.

Coinbase has also just released a new Bitcoin “21 million” commercial that beautifully dramatises BTC scarcity vs. the inflating USD.

In other crypto news…

• Blockchain payments firm Ripple has reportedly bid up to $5 billion in an effort to acquire stablecoin issuer Circle, but the offer was rejected.

• The SEC has delayed a decision until June for next steps on the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF and Franklin XRP Fund.

• Nike is being sued by buyers of its RTFKT NFTs who allege that the company engaged in deceptive marketing and other misconduct.

• Tether said its “total exposure” to U.S. Treasurys had neared $120 billion at the end of March (which is close to 80% of its total backing).

• Vitalik Buterin has proposed a major overhaul of the Ethereum base layer, aiming to simplify the protocol’s architecture for improved security, scalability, and long-term sustainability – to be as simple as Bitcoin by 2030.

• President Trump is set to raise millions from his “Crypto & AI Innovators Dinner” priced at $1.5 million per plate and requiring $TRUMP coin token ownership to attend.

🌎 Macro news TLDR: Still more questions than answers

The U.S. stock market continues to stage a recovery, shrugging off persistent recession fears. Investor confidence remains resilient, with many stocks recouping losses from April’s downturn that was sparked by Trump’s trade policies. 

Yet, a key question lingers: is this a sustainable rebound or merely a short-lived relief rally?

U.S.-China trade talks show cautious progress, with both sides inching toward a potential deal. However, the tangible effects of tariffs are hitting hard. Just as the dust starts to settle on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a new India-Pakistan conflict has started to escalate.

Oil prices are the ‘canary in the coalmine’ gauge of global economic health, signaling trouble! Brent crude has slumped to a four-year low, driven by weakening demand but also coordinated efforts to curb inflation.

What is already baked into the economic cake and what surprises still lurk around the corner? Is a recession inevitable or part of a well engineered plan?

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady this week, resisting pressure from the Trump administration. However, the nuances in Fed Chair Powell’s speech may reveal signals about future policy moves. 

Markets are oscillating between hope and despair – yet to choose their longer term trajectory. Investors are still wary of what lies ahead, adopting a ‘cautiously optimistic’ posture. There are still more questions than answers.

U.S. Economic News

The S&P broad market index closed its 9th straight day of gains on Friday, the longest winning streak since November 2004, managing to recover all losses incurred since April 2 (Liberation Day) – but started the week slightly down on new tariff threats. Sigh.

President Trump has blamed former President Biden after new data showed that U.S. GDP contracted in Q1, 2025 – suggesting that he will blame Biden for the next quarter too. GDP fell at -0.3% annualized in Q1, the first quarter of negative growth since 2022, fuelling recession fears.

U.S. jobless claims rose 1.92 million and up 83,000 from the prior period – the highest level since Nov. 13, 2021 as the fallout from Trump’s trade war is starting to take effect.

Bravos Research has flagged a warning about the fragility of U.S. debt as the $27 trillion treasury bond market nears the size of the U.S. economy – further sell off could trigger collapse. 

Microsoft’s stock jumped nearly 10% at the end of last week after an earnings and revenue beat as AI demand lifted their Cloud computing business – surpassing Apple to become the largest traded company in the world.

Investing legend Warren Buffet has finally announced his retirement at nearly 95 years old and somehow this news wasn’t priced in as Berkshire Hathaway stock took a 5% tumble.

Most notably, in an annual address to shareholders, he specifically called out concerns about the ‘unsustainable fiscal deficit’ and U.S. currency devaluation.

Chinese bargain retailer Temu has temporarily stopped shipping products from China directly to U.S. shoppers citing higher tariffs as both countries nudge closer to trade talks.

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

After months of tough negotiations, the U.S. and Ukraine have finally signed a long-awaited minerals deal, providing Washington with preferential access to Kyiv’s natural resources in exchange for the formation of a reconstruction investment fund – and the hope that the partnership will facilitate the end of this war.

President Trump has teased “a very BIG announcement… one of the most important announcements in many many years” and President Zelensky has said a “ceasefire could be put in place at any moment”. It’s looking hopeful!

Ratcheting up the sanctions on Iran, President Trump has said that any country that buys oil from Iran will be barred from doing any business with the U.S.

Oil prices took a tumble earlier this week to the lowest levels since 2021 after OPEC+ agreed to increase production by a further 411k barrels per day in June (on top of recession fears). In nominal terms, oil is at the same level as it was 20 years ago.

And in Asia Pacific…

Breaking news: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland this week to discuss economic and trade matters.

Tensions continue to rise in the Kashmir region as India has halted the water flow through the Baglihar dam to Pakistan for the first in 65 years – raising concerns of further escalation between the two nuclear powers who have recently upgraded their military capabilities.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady and sharply cut its growth forecasts last week, suggesting uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and a hit to exports could keep policy in a holding pattern for some time.

In AU, headline inflation dropped below 3% for the first time in 3 years spurring hopes of further rate cuts at the next RBA meeting in June. The national median home prices climbed 0.3% to hit a new peak of $825,349 in April.

Australia has awarded Prime Minister Albanese another term in office in what is being called a “devastating defeat” for the opposition Liberal party, with one of its lowest ever primary votes since the party was formed in the 1940s.

In NZ, the latest RBNZ figures show that troubled mortgages grew by 11.5% in Q1 whilst mortgages held by investors had its biggest rise in March for nearly four years.

In a new suite of measures unveiled earlier this week, NZ banks will be required to reimburse fraud victims up to $500,000 and introduce new rules to crack down on scammers.

And President Trump has threatened to slap new 100% tariffs “on any and all movies coming into our country (U.S.) that are produced in foreign lands” – which could have significant impacts on the NZ film industry. We suggest that Hollywood rather focus on making better movies.

That’s a wrap for this week!

Stay tuned for the next update.

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