Weekly Market Update: High Stakes Geopolitical Poker

Both Gold and Bitcoin are Shining

The global geopolitical chessboard is a ruthless poker den, with world leaders slinging cards and bluffing like seasoned hustlers, leaving everyone wondering who’s running the table and who’s the sucker.

Trump and Xi are in a high-noon showdown, guns drawn with 145% U.S. tariffs and China’s 125% retaliatory jabs, strangling trade like a python on a pig. Chinese factories are shuttering – with rumours of jobless workers and Beijing scrambling for new markets in Vietnam and Indonesia. 

Americans are likewise feeling woozy, catching whiffs of 2008 as Trump’s trade war looms over bare Walmart shelves and a summer of more redundancies.

Trump’s banking on his “Art of the Deal” bravado to make Xi fold, but China’s patiently redirecting trade to its 1.4 billion-strong domestic market and BRICS allies. Who’s playing who? It’s like trying to spot the dealer in a rigged card game.

In Ukraine, the war’s a brutal three-year grind, with peace talks stumbling at the end like a marathoner with a blown-out knee. Zelensky’s the scrappy street fighter, jabbing for more European cash and U.S. missiles while Trump grumbles that he’s a “moocher” whilst pushing for a deal that smells like Moscow’s playbook.

Europe’s caught in a tug-of-war, bankrolling Kyiv while driving a bigger wedge through U.S. – Europe and NATO fault line. The U.S. dollar’s taken an 8% dive, a wounded eagle, while Europe’s Euro and markets climb on stimulus pipe dreams, betting they can dodge Trump’s trade war. Zelensky’s pivoting to Europe over the US, but is he rallying their support or is Europe wielding him as a weapon against Russia?

In the U.S., Trump’s 100-day plan is a flashy magic show – tariffs, deregulation, and a zero-income-tax pipe dream – but he’s run smack into Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman who’s less a pawn in Trump’s game and more a locked vault. Powell’s not budging, even as Trump threatens to fire him, only to backtrack when markets wobble. 

The Federal Reserve’s roots trace to Hamilton’s First Bank (1791-1811), designed to stabilize the young U.S. economy but axed by states’ rights advocates – and then Jackson’s populist crusade destroyed the Second Bank (1816-1836), unleashing chaotic, unregulated markets.

The Fed, born in 1913, was meant to restore order, but now it’s become a bloated gatekeeper. Trump’s tax cuts need a gusher of cheap money to ignite prosperity, yet Powell’s playing tightfisted banker, bolting the vault to dodge an inflation firestorm. Is the Fed derailing Trump’s America First agenda, or is Trump baiting them for a knockout?

The Fed’s independence, forged from centuries of banking battles, is Trump’s kryptonite, forcing him to rethink his dealmaking playbook. A global sell-off of Treasury bonds, spooked by America’s fading “safe haven” glow, has spiked rates, pinching borrowers like a vise. And Trump is learning that the White House isn’t a boardroom, and Powell’s no lackey.

As the geopolitical poker game heats up, both gold and Bitcoin are shining like lighthouses in a storm, each playing a distinct role. Gold, the ancient king of safe havens, is surging – up over 25% in 2025 – as investors flee for safety. It’s the ultimate “trust no one” asset, tangible and immune to central bank whims. 

Bitcoin, the rebellious upstart, is holding its own too, climbing back over $90,000 as investor sentiment starts to improve. While gold’s the steady bunker for weathering crisis’, Bitcoin’s the rocket for betting on a borderless future. Together, they’re the real winners as the chessboard burns, proving that in a world where everyone’s playing everyone, sometimes the safest move is to bet on something nobody controls.

Market sentiment is improving and now showing: Greed.

Highlights this week: 

• Bitcoin has staged a strong recovery and held firmly in the mid-$90k range on improving investor sentiment and outlook as the trade war dust starts to settle. 
• BTC ETFs saw the biggest week of inflows since January!
• Key momentum indicator weekly RSI has trended back up to 58% as Bitcoin price has reclaimed the 200 day moving average – more technical analysis here.
• BTC market dominance is holding above 64% as the total market cap nears $1.9T USD, making it the fifth most valuable asset in the world.
• Most of the Top 20 large cap Altcoins grew ahead of Bitcoin this week after a catch-up rally, with notable callout to SUI that grew +34.5% (more details in section below). 
• Most of the top 100 coins also finished in the green this week (at time of writing).
• The surprise winner of the week was TRUMP coin +43% after some very clever tactical manoeuvring from the President (more details in section below).
• Other notable pumps lead Memecoins PENGU +60.6%, BONK +34.7% and FLOKI +27.9% as traders seem to be hunting for a bottom.
• There were no big losers this week, only the Gold Tokens XAUT and PAXG taking a small rest and consolidation after a big gold price run up these past few weeks.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more. 

Highlights from the crypto space:

On April 23, Bitcoin overtook Alphabet (Google) to become the world’s fifth most valuable asset, reaching a market cap of $1.87 trillion. The milestone came amid Bitcoin’s growing decoupling from U.S. tech stocks, with BTC gaining 15% in April, outperforming the Nasdaq 100.

Bitcoin could reach $138,555 by the end of 2025, according to a new 21Shares analysis of historical trends and current market signals, suggesting the market is in a consolidation phase and not a peak.

The report highlights Bitcoins relative strength through the Trump trade war as a sign of maturing investor confidence – also pointing to rising adoption in high-inflation economies as reinforcement of the hedge narrative.

Michael Saylor’s (Micro)Strategy has a new significant rival following the launch of TwentyOne, a new Bitcoin investment company backed by SoftBank, Tether and Cantor Fitzgerald with over 42,000 BTC at launch (worth nearly $4 billion at spot price).

Analysts are ‘incrementally bullish’ about the potential for growing institutional adoption saying “the launch of Twenty One reflects the most-meaningful validation of Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury operations to date.”

Official TRUMP memecoin was making headlines again this week after firstly deciding to postpone the unlock of 40 million new tokens by 90 days and then announcing that the top 220 holders of TRUMP would be invited to a formal dinner with President Donald Trump at the Trump National Golf Club in Washington, D.C. This caused the price to skyrocket by over 70% with a 24 hour trading volume of $1.8 billion.

Unsurprisingly, Democratic Senators Adam Schiff and Elizabeth Warren are calling for an ethics investigation into President Trump’s promotion of his TRUMP meme coin. 

SUI continues on a winning streak and is making a run for the top 10 by market cap (currently at 13) as the price surged by 60% earlier in the week, outpacing Bitcoin in the broader crypto market recovery.

The TVL (total value of assets locked in DeFi) has increased by 38% in the past week to $1.645B and stablecoins on SUI have grown rapidly over the past two months, rising from $482M to $879M.

Gold has surged over 25% this year, defying market headwinds from the Trump trade war that has pressured most asset classes.

Whilst Bitcoin has navigated volatility, gold has flourished – but both assets have proven their value as non-correlated stores of value – and Bitcoin price action is starting to more closely resemble gold’s behaviour.

Crypto investor confidence is poised for growth as new SEC leadership vows to end overreach, restore fairness, and champion clear digital asset regulations.

President Trump praised Atkins’ background in the crypto sector, emphasizing his prior role: “Paul has also been a leader in the emerging crypto and blockchain industries and served as co-chair of the Digital Chambers Token Alliance.”

The U.K. have proposed new crypto legislation aimed at “supporting innovation while cracking down on fraudsters.” It aims for closer alignment with the U.S. industry regulations, including a proposed U.S.-U.K. cross-border sandbox, in a strong signal that they are now open for crypto business.

In a Turkish interview, Binance co-founder ‘CZ’ shared his thoughts that Bitcoin Founder Satoshi Nakamoto may have been an AI from the future – a time-travelling software engineer that has returned to the past to invent Bitcoin. That is wild!

This chart (below), highlighting a sharp drop in developer activity, has sparked significant discussion on social media. Many attribute the lack of substantial progress (beyond Bitcoin, stablecoins, and platforms like Pump.fun) to both developers and venture capital (VC) firms.

Developers have failed to create meaningful projects and VC investment has slowed since the 2021–2022 mania. There is hope that growing mainstream adoption and real world utility will turn this around.

In other crypto news…

• Following a $500 million settlement with the SEC in February, crypto exchange OKX has announced plans to launch its exchange and wallet product in the U.S., and setting up regional headquarters in San Jose, California.

• A new memo from the DOJ signals a shift away from prosecuting crypto intermediaries, narrowing enforcement to clear cases of fraud or national security risk.

• Vitalik Buterin has proposed swapping the EVM for a RISC-V virtual machine while preserving Ethereum’s account and call abstraction mechanics.

• Stablecoin giant Circle is set to unveil a new payments and cross border remittance product this week.

• Payments giant Stripe is building a new stablecoin-based product using Bridge likely targeted at clients outside of the U.S., Europe and the U.K.

• Coinbase is considering applying for a U.S. federal bank charter, which could allow it to operate more like a traditional bank that offers services such as deposits and lending.

🌎 Macro news TLDR: Is peak fear behind us?

100 days into Trump’s second term and the initial turbulence is starting to subside as the dust settles on the U.S. global trade war. Key trading partners including Canada, Mexico and the EU are in active trade talks, hammering out deals to satisfy Trump’s hardball tactics. 

Global markets, rocked by initial uncertainty, are slowly regaining footing refueled by optimism over Trump’s pledged tax cuts to juice economic growth and the growing likelihood of a grinding halt to the Russia-Ukraine war.

China still stands defiant and unyielding in a high-stakes showdown, as both superpowers refuse to show any weakness by making the first move – but U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is openly confident that ‘peak fear is behind us’, expecting there will be a de-escalation soon.

Global recession fears are keeping investors twitchy, but the market seems to be gearing up for a possible bullish return.

U.S. Economic News

Blaming the Fed for stubbornly high inflation (and ignoring the impact of tariffs), President Trump has set his sights on Jerome Powell launching multiple attacks over the last week including calling the Fed chair “a major loser whose termination cannot come soon enough” and saying “if we had a Fed Chairman that understood what he was doing, interest rates would be coming down too.” He has since softened his stance, saying he had “no intention” of firing Powell.

The next FOMC meeting is on 7 May where the market is still largely expecting ‘no change’ to interest rates from the current 425-450 BPS range.

Jerome Powell is holding strong to his position that US policymakers will wait for more data on the economy’s direction before changing interest rates – the market thinks rate cuts will come in June or later with 75 BPS priced in before year end.

Southwest Airlines was the latest U.S. carrier to withdraw its financial forecast as President Trump’s trade war has created the biggest uncertainty for the airline industry since COVID-19. “Amid the current macroeconomic uncertainty, it is difficult to forecast given recent and short-lived booking trends,” the company said.

Americans are starting to sour over President Trump’s handling of the economy as stock market impact and recession fears are starting to show in the latest Reuters/Iposos poll as his approval rating has fallen to 37%.

President Trump reconfirmed his commitment to reducing federal income taxes in a latest post on Truth social: “When Tariffs cut in, many people’s Income Taxes will be substantially reduced, maybe even completely eliminated. Focus will be on people making less than $200,000 a year. Also massive numbers of jobs are already being created… It will be a BONANZA for AMERICA!!! THE EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE IS HAPPENING!!!” If he pulls that off it will be something. 

In a remarkable turnaround from just three months ago, acting Prime Minister Mark Carney has won the Canadian election and the Liberal Party is set to remain in power on promises that “America will never own us”. Carney has a strong pro business stance as a former central banker for both the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis and the Bank of England during the Brexit process. 

Over in Europe…

President Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine “are very close to a deal”, hours after his envoy Steve Witkoff met for discussions with President Putin for a fourth time. The Kremlin described the talks as “constructive” – after last week’s big attack which pounded Kyiv killing 12 people – a three day ceasefire is planned.

The United States and the European Union still need a lot of work to reach a deal that would prevent the imminent tariffs on each other’s goods according to the EU Economic Commissioner.

The U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on EU cars, steel and aluminium in March and 20% tariffs on other EU goods in April that are due to come into full effect on 8 July.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates for a third time last week as they expect to sustainably hit the 2% inflation target in the second half of 2025. “Our recommendation is there is room for one more 25 basis point cut, in the summer, and then the ECB should hold that 2% policy rate unless major shocks hit and there is a need for recalibrating monetary policy.”

In one of the most significant international gatherings of the year, Pope Francis’ funeral was attended by over 100 official delegations, including Presidents Trump and Zelensky, and tens of thousands of people for the outdoor mass held in St Peter’s Square.

A blackout brought most of Spain and Portugal to a standstill on Monday, stopping trains, cutting phone service and shutting down traffic lights and ATMs for over 60 million people in what is being called an “exceptional and extraordinary” event – some are pointing to an announcement by Spain on April 22nd that they hit 100% renewable power. Coincidence?

And in Asia Pacific…

President Trump asserted in an interview on Friday that tariff negotiations were under way with China, but Beijing denied any talks were taking place, the latest in a series of conflicting signals over what progress was being made to de-escalate the trade war threatening global growth.

China has exempted some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking business groups to identify critical goods they need tariff-free, in the first clear sign of Beijing’s concerns about the trade war’s fallout. “It’s clear that neither the U.S. nor China want to be the first in reaching out for a deal.”

Foreign automakers face an urgent challenge at this year’s Shanghai auto show – winning back Chinese buyers as their domestic rivals continue to outshine with affordable electric vehicles at scale.

The world’s biggest automakers have steadily lost market share in China as BYD is preparing for further expansion and preparing to overhaul European operations.

India may be preparing for a strike on Pakistan following the deadliest terrorist attack against civilians in Kashmir in 25 years, killing 26 and injuring 17. India’s navy test-fired missiles on Sunday, showcasing its ability to carry out “long-range, precision offensive” strikes, as tensions with Pakistan rise.

Early voting has begun in the Australian election with current Prime Minister Albanese still holding a strong lead over the conservative opposition party on Polymarket.

In NZ, banks are reporting an increased demand for residential mortgages for the first time since 2021 as lending has increased in the past six months. However, poor economic conditions and higher unemployment rates are likely to remain headwinds against a full recovery.

Residential rents around New Zealand have fallen 2.3% over the past year with a record number of properties listed on TradeMe.

Six financial technology (fintech) companies have been picked by the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) to test their products, services and business models in the FMA’s new regulatory sandbox to be piloted this year – including Easy Crypto’s Stablecoin (NZDD).

That’s a wrap for this week!

Stay tuned for the next update.

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