Weekly Market Update: Patience and Conviction Rewarded

Markets are now pricing in hope

It’s almost hard to believe that just over a month ago global markets were clutching their pearls trembling in the shadow of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff bombshell. The narrative was grim: trade wars, nuclear sabre-rattling and the U.S. dollar teetering on the edge of a cliff.

Looking in the rearview mirror, that grim moment feels like just another stormy night before a blazing dawn. Equities cratered, the USD buckled, Bitcoin stumbled, and only gold and fear fetched a premium. But as the adage goes, it’s always darkest before the dawn – and boom, the sun roared back faster than a Wall Street algo chasing a Fed rate cut whisper.

Fast-forward to this week and major economies like China, the UK and even India are at the negotiating table, apparently ironing out the finer details on new U.S. trade deals with a much reduced tariff floor – that’s more of a speed bump than the apocalyptic wall everyone feared. 

To add to the bullish backdrop, Ukraine and Russia are inching toward a ceasefire, Israel’s conflicts are simmering down and even India-Pakistan’s fragile ceasefire has the markets breathing a sigh of relief. 

Amidst the trade war chaos, the dollar index (the DXY) has taken a hit, but rumors of the U.S. dollar’s demise are just that – it still has plenty of fight left! A decade ago, the USD dominated over two-thirds of global trade; now it’s just over half. Sure. But Trump’s tariff tantrum has proven that America can still throw its weight around.

Markets, true to form, overshot on despair and are now pricing in hope, with stocks recovering losses and Bitcoin surging back over $100,000 USD. It’s classic: markets swing wildly, pricing in the end of the world one month and utopia the next. The truth? In reality it never seems to be quite as bad as the bears growl, nor as glorious as the bulls dream.

So, what’s really going on here? 

Trump’s trade war has turned out to be less about balancing trade and more about bolstering up America’s financial hegemony to counter the growing economic challenge posed by China. Likewise, Wall Street’s aging tech can’t keep up with crypto’s vision of a decentralized future that trades around the clock – they’re not just missing the party; they’re terrified of missing the gains!

Let’s adjust our perspective and anchor it to the right horizon. On a long enough timeline, empires do rise and fall, currencies do crumble and collapse – but that’s not happening every other month. 

The same goes for crypto: 30% corrections sting in the moment, but zoom out and they’re often just minor hiccups on a broader path – as patience and conviction is often rewarded.

Market sentiment continued to rise and is showing: Greed.

Crypto price action highlights this week: 

• The crypto market has front run the broad markets this week with bullish price action across the board – driven by a significant improvement in investor sentiment.
• But there’s still plenty of money sitting on the sidelines as Blackrocks CEO Larry Fink reminded us: “in Europe there’s $12 Trillion dollars sitting in bank accounts …In the U.S. there’s $11 Trillion dollars sitting in money market funds.”
• Bitcoin broke and held well above $100k from a weekly low of $93.3k to a high of $105k.
• BTC weekly RSI (momentum indicator) is back over 60% but market dominance has dropped slightly to 62% as Altcoins have roared back to life.
• Total crypto market cap is up at $3.5 trillion, but shy of the near $4 trillion peak from Dec. 
• Most major Altcoins are showing strong double digit gains as liquidity continues to flow down through the market caps.
• ETH has finally caught a bid this week after the Pectra update rocketing up +48.2%.
• Also riding the wave of bullish momentum is DOGE +40.4% and NEAR +37.9% recovering much of the prior week’s losses.
• Surprise winners of the week are top Memecoins: dogwifhat +110.2% and Pepe +81.6%.
• At the time of writing, there are no major top 100 coins in losing position this week.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more. 

Highlights from the crypto space

“I apologise that my USD 120k Q2 target may be too low” said Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets at Standard Chartered, in a tongue-in-cheek comment about Bitcoin.

After breaking back through $100k on Thursday, Bitcoin temporarily surpassed Amazon to become the 5th largest asset by market capitalisation.

Amazon has since regained the position after a wide-spread rally in stocks this week on news of the U.S.-China trade deal.

Ethereum developers successfully activated the Pectra upgrade last week with 11 changes to improve UX, validator ops and Layer 2 scaling – launching ETH as a front runner in this rally up nearly 50% in the last 7 days.

In an interview on Saudi State TV, Michael Saylor seized the opportunity to offer bold financial advice, urging the nation’s $930 billion sovereign wealth fund to invest heavily in Bitcoin.

After pulling the plug on its own crypto token ambitions, Meta is rumoured to be testing the crypto waters again – in discussions about introducing Stablecoins as a means to manage payouts across its platforms and hiring a vice president of product with crypto experience.

BlackRock met with the SEC to discuss adding staking features and refining options trading

rules for crypto ETFs. They also discussed general standards for approving crypto ETFs. Let’s see if a bit of gentle persuasion helps to grease the SEC wheels!

Coinbase shares fell as first-quarter revenue came in shy of Wall Street’s expectations, despite the growth in stablecoin revenue.

The first quarter saw several positive developments for cryptocurrency, however, concerns about Trump’s tariff policy caused a lot of volatility, which dampened investor appetite for riskier assets.

Then Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong, announced that they will become the first and only crypto company to join the S&P 500, sending the stock soaring +24% in one day!

Senate Democrats blocked a first-of-its-kind bill dubbed the GENIUS act that aimed to regulate cryptocurrency in the US amid concerns over President Trump’s cryptocurrency dealings. The vote was a close 49-48 after months of intense negotiations – showing general agreement across the Senate that regulation is necessary.

The US federal court for the Southern District of New York has sentenced former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky to 12 years in prison for fraud. His legal team sought a light sentence, highlighting his spotless record before the Celsius incident, but U.S. prosecutors were not swayed, suggesting that the judge deliver a 20-year sentence.

The Trump family’s net worth has increased by $2.9 billion thanks to crypto investments, according to a new report from State Democracy Defenders Action – the president’s crypto holdings are now estimated to represent nearly 40% of his net worth, due in part to the $TRUMP and $MELANIA memecoins, in addition to a large stake in World Liberty Financial.

In other crypto news…

• Publicly traded digital marketing firm Asset Entities has agreed to merge with Strive Asset Management to become the first publicly listed Bitcoin treasury company.

• Tokyo-listed investment firm Metaplanet has expanded its Bitcoin treasury, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 6,796 BTC currently valued at over $706 million.

• North Korea’s infamous Lazarus Group has been actively trimming its holdings, falling below Bhutan in the hierarchy of nation-state Bitcoin reserves.

• Armed assailants on Tuesday attempted to kidnap the daughter and grandson of a prominent French cryptocurrency entrepreneur in Paris.

• Coinbase says Bitcoin miners are struggling to produce BTC fast enough to meet overwhelming demand and exchanges are running low on supply.

• Dubai’s Department of Finance announced a partnership with Crypto.com that will allow government service fees to be paid with large-cap cryptocurrencies.

🌎 Macro news TLDR: Risk-on returns to the markets

The bulls are back and risk-on sentiment has returned as markets rally on positive trade deal developments with major U.S. trading partners and progress in peace negotiations in critical conflict zones, restoring investor confidence and certainty. 

Many believe Trump’s trade war is largely behind us, fuelling optimism. And odds of a U.S. recession have dropped on Polymarket. 

The flurry of developments over the past week has triggered a pivot in some key market indicators: the US Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened, while US 10-year Treasury yields have rallied – watch for a sustained break above 4.5% to prompt the Federal Reserve to likely take action on its next rate cut. 

Whilst markets were surging, Gold and Bitcoin paused their upward momentum momentarily on dollar strength and faded risk-off sentiment.

And oil prices have partially recovered from last week’s sharp decline, as OPEC+ production increases are counterbalanced by persistent refinery bottlenecks and supply constraints. 

Markets seem to be regaining some trust in Trump’s economic policies, but recent volatility serves as a reminder that sentiment can shift rapidly. Sometimes on a dime!

Economic news from the Americas

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at their meeting mid-last week and said the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen, further clouding the U.S. economic outlook as policymakers grapple with the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The U.S. CPI print came in softer than expected at 2.3% for April vs. 2.4% – adding more fuel to the recovery rally on renewed hopes for imminent rate cuts. 

Last Friday, President Trump announced a new trade agreement with the U.K. and the first since Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs were imposed in early April.

He also confirmed that 10% will be the new floor for countries that seek trade agreements with the U.S. but “some will be much higher because they have massive trade surpluses…”

Markets began a strong rally on that news and after President Trump made other bullish statements about further trade deals and tax cuts saying: “you better go out and buy stocks now…. Let me tell you, this country will be like a rocket ship that goes straight up.”

House Republicans have started working on a sweeping tax and spending cuts package known as President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” – aiming to fulfil several campaign promises including ending taxes on tips.

To help offset these tax reductions, totalling trillions of dollars over a decade, the House is also looking for at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts. Watch this space!

Touted as “the biggest healthcare shift in American history”, President Trump signed an executive order on Monday directing pharmaceutical companies to lower the prices of their medicines to ‘match what other countries pay’.

The order gives them price targets and will take further action if “significant progress” is not made within six months.

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost became the first American to be elected Pope on Thursday, choosing the papal name Leo XIV. In a first appearance to crowds in St. At Peter’s Square, he appealed to the world’s major powers for “no more war”.

Presidents Putin and Xi made a strong joint statement at the 80th Victory Day Parade in Moscow: “China and Russia will strengthen cooperation to advance a multipolar world order based on mutual respect.

Our partnership counterbalances unilateral hegemony while promoting development and stability that benefits all nations around the world”.

President Putin also confirmed that the majority of trade between Russia and China is now settled in national currencies rather than US Dollars.

Ukrainian President Zelensky says he is ready to meet Russian President Putin “personally” in Istanbul on Thursday for talks over ending the war – this came shortly after President Trump demanded Ukraine agree to Putin’s offer of direct talks. Maybe this time?

President Trump is heading to the Persian Gulf Region this week for further energy and Israel-Gaza peace negotiations.

And in Asia Pacific…

Who blinked first? After two days of intense negotiations, the U.S. and China came to a breakthrough ‘ceasefire’ deal on Monday to avert a full blown trade war – both countries will drastically roll back tariffs for an initial 90-day period – a surprise de-escalation just as the first Chinese goods subject to the 145%+ tariffs began arriving in America. News of the deal sent the stock market soaring to start the week!

A fragile ceasefire is still holding (at time of writing) between India and Pakistan after U.S. President Trump said he will work to provide a solution for the Kashmir region. The rival nuclear powers were involved in intense firing for four days, the worst in nearly three decades.

In NZ, ANZ has confirmed that three quarters of its total lending is now housing lending and CEO Antonia Watson says this is likely to rise even higher. Concerning, because we can’t grow by just selling houses to one another!

Annual migration estimates for the March 2025 year showed a net migration gain of 26,400 compared with a net gain of 100,400 the year prior. 123,300 migrant departures are the highest on record for an annual period as the NZ economy struggles back out of recession. 

That’s a wrap for this week!

Stay tuned for the next update.

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