Weekly Market Update: The Last Sane Bet

Bitcoin remains remarkably resilient

Is the U.S. already in a recession, or are we just watching a slow-motion trainwreck? Over half the jobs touted by the Biden administration were apparently as real as a politician’s promise – poof, simply gone upon closer inspection. 

Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan’s oracle, hedges his bets with a shrug: “I think the economy is weakening. Whether it’s on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”

Meanwhile, the stock market, high on the Magnificent Seven, keeps smashing records. Oracle’s Larry Ellison briefly snagged the “richest man” title, pocketing over $100 billion in a single day on a stellar growth projection. That’s not a market; it feels more like a casino.

Now, let’s sprinkle in some irony. Trump’s accusing Russia of eyeing Europe’s crumbling empire, while the U.S. casually muses about annexing Greenland and Canada and gears up for a potential invasion of Venezuela – who is coincidentally sitting on the world’s third-largest oil and gas reserves. 

Europe, meanwhile, is bracing for war with Russia, convinced Putin is coming for their cathedrals and cobblestones. A leaked French hospital directive says “prepare for 2026 casualties,” as France itself descends into riots and chaos on Macron’s collapsing approval rating and endless government turmoil.

But let’s pause and ask: why would Russia bother with Europe? Its economy is a mess and it has no natural resources. Anton Kobyakov, economic advisor to President Putin, didn’t mince words: “Europe will be totally economically irrelevant in five years.” The Middle East is the new money hub. Manufacturing has bolted to China, Vietnam and now India. Trading hubs? Shenzhen, Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai, Mumbai. Europe is a museum, not a market!

President Trump, smelling weakness, is twisting Europe’s arm to slap 100% tariffs on China and India for buying Russian energy. The catch? Buy U.S. natural gas at double or triple the price. What a deal.

Across the Atlantic, the U.S. is playing its own desperate game. Kobyakov also claims the Trump Administration is eyeing crypto and gold to dodge its $37 trillion debt bomb and pass it on to the rest of the world. History has got receipts: in 1930, the U.S. confiscated gold, revalued it from $20.67 to $35, and slashed the dollar’s purchasing power by 41%. In 1971, Nixon defaulted on the gold standard, tanking the dollar’s value by 50% over the next decade. 

Whispers from Treasury Secretary Bessent and the U.S. Fed hints at another possible gold revaluation – to hand the Treasury $4-5 trillion by re-marking its gold stash to market. And the GENIUS Act, could be the Trojan horse to push government bonds onto the masses. 

This all points to one thing: the fiat money experiment, barely 50 years old, is unraveling faster than a cheap sweater. Gold’s making a comeback, but don’t sleep on Bitcoin – its finite supply makes it the “digital gold” for the modern world. Stablecoins? Just a pit stop, a transactional on-ramp to the real game: sound money and projects with real utility. 

As the world’s players get wilder and weirder, keep your head cool and your plan clear. The era of funny money is fading, and the future belongs to those who bet on value that doesn’t vanish. 

In a world gone mad, this may well be the last sane bet.

Market sentiment has firmed up but remained in: Neutral

Crypto market moves: 

• BTC closed the week above $115k as the longer term uptrend appears to have remained intact despite the multi-week correction below $110k.
• Bitcoin ETFs saw renewed interest with over $2.2 billion of inflows last week.
• Reports of Bitcoin supply on exchanges now at a 7-year low.
• Polymarket is showing 67% chance of >$120k BTC in September. The countdown is on!
• Bitcoin mining hashrate hit another new high!
• Fear & Greed index remained in Neutral territory as Google search volume for “Bitcoin” and “Cryptocurrency” seems to have found a bottom.
• 71 of the top 100 Altcoins outperformed BTC in the last 90 days, the highest % this year.
• Bitcoin dominance has remained steady at 58% for a few weeks, a strong breakdown from here could be a leading indicator for continued Altcoin outperformance. 
• ETH:BTC ratio remains just below 4%.
• The total crypto market cap is nearing new highs currently over $4.1 trillion as most of the top 100 finished in the green in the last 7 days.
• The big winners of the week are DOGE (Dogecoin) +11.7% on ETF news and BNB +8.8% as Binance nears a deal with the U.S. Justice Department.
• The surprise mover of the week is SOL (Solana) +9.2%, gaining momentum on ETF hopes and new treasury company news (see following section).
• The big loser of the week is ENA (Ethena) -14.5%.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space:

After absorbing heavy Whale selling pressure throughout the month of August, Bitcoin has been trending upwards after it broke back through the $112-114k resistance band last week. The Fed meeting and Q3 options ending will likely lead to more volatility this week and weigh on short term price action. Call me when September ends, and bring on UpTober! 

*not financial advice

Jack Dorsey’s Bitchat, a bluetooth mesh network messaging app, saw a sudden spike in downloads last week from Indonesian and Nepali protestors looking for a way around the social media ban.

The Bitcoin hashrate hit another new-high as mining difficulty keeps rising despite price volatility. This persistent climb underscores confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value and highlights the resilience of its decentralized infrastructure, even as the market faces turbulence.

El Salvador has teased the launch of the world’s first Bitcoin Bank on X.

A Wharton Business School professor and the chief economist stated to CNBC that Bitcoin may turn out to be a serious competitor to the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Sounds like he finally gets it.

Multicoin Capital, Jump Crypto (largest trading firm in crypto) and Galaxy Digital have successfully led a $1.65B private investment into Forward Industries Inc. (FORD), which will use the net proceeds to initiate a Solana treasury company strategy. 

Tether has revealed plans to launch a new U.S. compliant Stablecoin called USAT token that will operate on regulated rails, meaning access will not be fully permissionless and transactions will be transparent and traceable. This move could weaken the market share of Circle’s USDC.

Dogecoin broke out of a multi-month consolidation on its ETF launch, briefly pushing back through $0.30, and leading to calls for a bigger rally incoming. Much happiness, very WOW!

Apple’s new iPhone 17 has introduced a new layer of defense for crypto users with hardware-level memory protections that aim to prevent common attack vectors. Nice!

In other crypto news…

• The “largest npm compromise in history” targeting crypto wallets through JavaScript packages has netted hackers just $1,043. Phew.

• Crypto exchange Kraken is introducing perpetual futures for eligible clients in select jurisdictions.

• Amazon posted a $500k a year job offer for a Crypto Ecosystem Lead – crypto payments coming soon?

• The Ethereum Foundation announced a new AI-focused research team, aiming to blend the censorship-resistant power of blockchain with one of tech’s hottest fields.

• PayPal is integrating crypto into its peer-to-peer payment system which will allow users to directly send and receive BTC, ETH and PYUSD. 

• Michael Saylor is among other crypto leaders who are in Washington to push for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill to advance in Congress. Fingers crossed!

🌎 Macro news TLDR: There is no longer any doubt

It is plain to see that President Trump’s policies have eroded global confidence in the U.S. dollar, as the DXY has fallen by over 10% since his administration began in January 2025. The sudden pivot to a far more aggressive protectionist and interventionist approach marks a sharp departure from globalization, disrupting the typical pricing signals of a more free and open global economy. 

Even the most steadfast trading partners are growing visibly frustrated. The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit delivered a clear message: “Join us or go your own way.” 

China, increasingly assertive, has strategically reduced its dependence on Western markets, positioning itself for resilience to trade disruptions that are now more likely to disproportionally hurt the U.S. and Europe – picture empty shelves at Walmart.

China’s long-term strategy has been masterful: first, supplying low-cost goods to dominate global manufacturing; then, replicating and enhancing Western technologies to outcompete rivals; and now, securing supply chains while on track to surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by the early 2030’s. 

Its recent military parade showcased not a threat of war but a confident readiness to defend its interests. This was underscored by an emergency BRICS virtual meeting on trade last week, that could very well be the beginnings of a coordinated “Global South” response to Trump’s trade war – or will the U.S. reach a deal with China ahead of the 10 November deadline?

There is no longer any doubt, the global economic order is fracturing before our eyes, with a declining West struggling to maintain its dominance while an emboldened Global South grows increasingly assertive. 

Change, long gradual, is now accelerating – brace for more volatility.

Economic news from the Americas

The producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.1% in August to 2.6% on a 12-month basis, well off the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.3% rise. And the consumer price index (CPI) posted a 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest gain since January, but putting the annual inflation rate at the expected 2.9%. Rate cuts are a sure bet! 

CME Group FedWatch is showing 96% probability of 25 bps cuts, and Polymarket is on the same page. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent have continued to push for a “larger” 50 bps cut. Let’s see how this plays out.

The U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates have reported their biggest drop in over a year – the average for 30-year fixed loans now 6.35%, down from 6.5% last week.

Larry Ellison gained more than $100 billion in net worth last week when Oracle skyrocketed by over 36% following an unexpected growth projection in their earnings report. He briefly surpassed Elon Musk as the world’s richest man with an estimated $400 billion. Crazy times!

President Trump floated the idea of companies no longer providing earnings reports on a quarterly basis but rather switching to semi annual reporting instead – referencing China’s 50 to 100 year view on management of a company.

President Trump has asked NATO countries to apply 100% tariffs on China and India for their continued purchases of Russian oil, which they are likely to politely decline. Is this a clever move by the Trump administration to corner the market for their own natural gas exports? 

The BRICS nations held an emergency virtual summit last week, hosted by Brazilian President Lula da Silva, to condemn U.S. tariffs, reaffirmed commitment to multilateralism, and strengthened Global South solidarity against protectionism, with leaders advocating for a fair, multipolar world order.

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

NATO forces scrambled to intercept Russian drones which entered Poland’s airspace last Wednesday, marking their first direct military engagement with Moscow since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. Will this draw a broader response from NATO? Watch this space!

Israel became the first country to bomb six different countries in one week, including launching an attack on Doha last week, which received widespread shock and criticism from their allies in the Middle East. All ahead of the start of their long-awaited ground operation into Gaza City. Can relative peace hold up in the Middle East?

Opposition groups in France are calling for the impeachment of President Macron after the collapse of the fifth government under his administration and as his approval rating hits new lows. Macron has declined a snap election and will move to appoint a new government in the coming days. Let’s see how this one plays out.

EU President von der Leyen is under fire as she now faces two no-confidence motions from the house opposition. How much longer can the union stay intact as concerns over sovereign debt are increasingly in focus?

And in Asia Pacific…

The U.S. and China have reached a “framework deal” for social media platform TikTok and President Trump and President Xi Jinping will meet Friday to discuss the terms. This will likely pivot the platform to U.S. controlled ownership.

China’s central bank has extended its gold-buying streak for a 10th straight month in August, as Beijing attempts to further diversify its reserves away from long-term assets backed by the US dollar. There is some speculation that China may own far more gold than they are reporting.

What began as a Gen Z-led social media movement against the lavish lifestyles of “Nepo Kids” led to the ousting of a Prime Minister and the deadliest social unrest Nepal has seen in years. After banning social media, protesters took to the streets and set government buildings alight as politicians fled by helicopter.

ANZ, Australia’s 8th largest employer will cut 10% of its workforce and 3,500 jobs in Australia, with no major cuts planned for NZ at this stage. They also just got served with the largest fine in ASIC history for “unconscionable conduct” involving front running the government on Bond sales. Ouch!

New Zealand’s manufacturing index (PMI) fell back into contraction during August reporting 49.9 (above 50.0 indicates growth). This was down 2.9 points from 52.8 in July, suggesting the road to recovery might be a bit longer and bumpier than expected.

And the performance services index (PSI) for August was 47.5, which is 1.4 points lower than July, and well below the average of 52.9 over the history of the survey. Supporting the case for more stimulus to jumpstart the NZ economy?

House prices took a dive in August as the slump deepened with median selling price down 11.1% compared to July and down 3.7% compared to August last year. The housing market “remains comatose after the excesses of the Covid era”, according to Westpac Chief Economist, but growth is expected to return next year.

That’s a wrap for this week!

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