Weekly Market Update: Uncharted Waters

Volatility’s back, and the market has got the jitters – hands are shakier than Kevin Rudd and Anthony Albanese at a Trump trade meeting!

The U.S.-China trade war flared up again, but it was initially brushed off as another Trumped-up TACO. Until, whispers of regional banks drowning in bad loans and toxic exposure hit like a triple espresso, sparking an UpTober sell-off sequel almost nobody was ready for (except the Hyperliquid “insider whale”).

Yet, like Rocky Balboa after a brutal round, the markets stumbled back to their feet again, hunting for another rally with a bloody nose and a glint of hope.

Meanwhile, from tech giants to airlines, companies are swinging the layoff axe, some are pointing fingers at AI like it’s the new intern who botched the coffee order. Critics are calling it a shiny scapegoat for old-school cost-cutting.

The bearish choir is hitting high notes again, “this is Dot-Com 2.0!” or “2008 with 10x leverage!” Their warnings echo as markets flirt with new all-time highs – the Dow closed at a record today. 

Heed them? Maybe. But as Wall Street wisdom goes, betting on Armageddon is a lousy trade – you might win once, but good luck cashing out before the apocalypse.

Bears have been bleeding millions, shorting this bull run. Take Michael Burry: the guy’s been yelling “sell everything” since the S&P 500 was down 60% from today’s highs. Ouch.

Bulls, on the other hand, keep raking it in – until the music stops. And when it does, it’s never pretty!

Then there’s gold, strutting into history as the first asset to hit a $30 trillion market cap. That’s not just a flex; it’s a neon sign flashing “something’s about to break.” Parabolic moves like this often herald trouble – a big bank circling the drain? A country teetering? 

Newsreels are showing massive lines of retail buyers snapping up gold from Asia to Australia. When the FOMO crowd crashes the party, it’s usually a cue for a top – or at least a breather. And right on cue, gold just posted its largest drop in five years today! 

Social media’s buzzing with crypto influencers peddling “dump gold, buy Bitcoin.” A capital rotation isn’t crazy – gold could consolidate, and crypto might catch a bid.

But Bitcoin’s also at a crossroads. We’re at the tail end of the classic four-year cycle, and if history’s any guide, the bears might be sharpening their claws. Brace for impact.

Still, some argue it’s too early for a bear market. Where’s the frothy euphoria, the Lambos-in-the-streets vibe of a true parabolic top? Many top coins and assets are still snoozing – take that $69 million NFT collage from four years ago, now worth less than a used Toyota. Oof.

To the eagle-eyed investor, recent volatility signals a shift from accumulation to distribution, with whales and insiders quietly unloading at these peaks. Yet, with the Trump clan squeezing every drop from this rally, one final hurrah could still ignite before the tide turns.

Bitcoin has matured, evolving into a legitimate store of value, but with that growth comes tamer returns – each cycle less explosive than the last. To rival gold in the long run, the crypto market must shake off its casino swagger, though it can still deliver a thrilling ride.

Something tells me the next few weeks will drop a big hint about where markets are headed in 2026. Buckle up, do your own research, and take this for what it is – not financial advice, just a front-row seat on the crypto rollercoaster.

Market sentiment dropped back again to: Extreme Fear.

Crypto market moves: 

• UpTober has been a wild ride for the crypto markets so far, as Bitcoin is trading -3% on the month to date. Some are asking if it should be called UptOver?
• Bitcoin led the markets in a double-drip down below $104k before rebounding and closing the week at $108.6k (above the 200 day moving average).
• More leverage was wiped out in the volatility, with traders losing $200 million on Tue, $450 million on Thur and over $1.2 billion on the weekend. Ouch!
• As expected, ETF outflows gained steam last week with Bitcoin -$1.2 billion.
• Most of the top 100 coins are still in the red on the last 7 day timeframe, as the total crypto market cap has dropped back to $3.8 trillion.
• Bitcoin dominance is slowly climbing but has remained below 60%. 
• The RSI has taken a hit across key daily – monthly timeframes, showing slowing momentum as the market sits as an inflection point. 
• The Fear & Greed index hit a yearly low before recovering and then dropping back to “Extreme Fear” – traders seem to be waiting for a clear signal of direction.
• Polymarket is showing 55% that Bitcoin will dip below $100k before 2026.
• Google search volumes on both “Bitcoin” and “Crypto” have taken a sharp dive.
• AltSeason is starting to feel like a pipedream as only 31% of top 100 Altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 3 months. 
• The big winner of the week is Zcash (ZEC) +14.3% and holding strong with bullish momentum through all of the market turmoil.
• The big loser of the week is BNB (Binance Token) -10.8% as their recent meme run has come to an end.

View all top gainers: Visit the top gainers page to find out more.

Highlights from the crypto space

The crypto markets erupted in renewed volatility last week in a double-dip sell-off sparking more liquidations.

Bullish momentum seems to have faltered amid growing FUD fueled by ongoing U.S. political and economic uncertainty.

Retail investors are clearly rattled and traders are forced to rethink risky bets. We’re at an inflection point: bull or bear market ahead?

The Hyperliquid “insider whale” who raked in over $200 million in the first flash-crash, opened another $500 million BTC short position at 10x leverage late last week, just ahead of the second sell-off. Speculation is running wild on social media about their identity – many are speculating Baron Trump who has already amassed a net worth of over $150 million.

The U.S. government became the second largest holder of Bitcoin after seizing a record 127,271 BTC worth over $14 billion from a Cambodian “scam empire”, promptly adding it to their strategic reserve.

Popular YouTuber MrBeast, with nearly 450 million subscribers, is reportedly eyeing a move into crypto after filing a trademark application with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office to launch MrBeast Financial. It’s about time!

Bitcoin is lagging behind M2 global liquidity and gold as investors remain hopeful for a catch up rally. Will Bitcoin follow after gold’s run?

Bitcoin treasury companies suffered massive investor losses in the recent price volatility, ranging from 38% for Strategy to 94% for KindlyMD over the past three months. The reverse fly wheel effect.

Cloudflare has expanded its push into AI-powered payments, announcing a collaboration with Visa, Mastercard and American Express to secure the emerging “agentic commerce” economy.

Coinbase is launching an all-in-one financial platform for small and medium businesses to receive crypto, manage assets, and earn up to 4.1% APY on USDC stablecoins.

After a multi-year trial run with collectible avatars and crypto wallets, Reddit announced that it is shutting down this initiative at the start of next year.

Paxos mistakenly minted $300 trillion of PayPal’s PYUSD Stablecoin last week in what the company called a “technical error” – market watchers spotted the massive injection on Etherscan. 

Other crypto news:

• Coinbase Global has invested in Mumbai-based CoinDCX to deepen its exposure to India and the Middle East.

• The SEC has approved the 21Shares Solana Spot ETF and it is expected to begin trading soon.

• Citi, the nation’s third-largest bank by assets, is reportedly working on a crypto custody service that it plans to launch in 2026.

• Tokenised gold is booming and could soon rival Stablecoins, as PAXG and XAUT make their way into the top 100 coin list.

• The price of XRP has remained down despite Ripple’s $1 billion buy back plan.

• U.S. burger restaurant Steak ‘n Shake has launched a Bitcoin Steakburger to celebrate five months of accepting BTC.

• Uniswap has expanded beyond the EVM ecosystem by adding SOL token trading support, marking its first non-EVM integration.

Whether you’re on the go or watching the markets at home, Swyftx lets you buy, sell, store, and swap 440+ coins with lower fees — all from your phone.

Take it further with advanced features like limit orders, custom price alerts, auto-invest, crypto bundles, demo mode and much more.

Everything you need in one simple app.

🌎 Macro news TLDR: A solvency crisis

The relentless storm of political and financial chaos engulfing the U.S. is reverberating across the globe.

Notably, former allies and rising powers are increasingly distancing themselves from President Trump’s trade tantrums and deal-making bravado, as chants of “TACO” grow louder.

TACO in the geopolitical sense also stands for: tariffs, America first, currency and oil!

For instance, Trump’s repeated threats against India to halt Russian oil purchases have been masterfully sidestepped by Prime Minister Modi.

India continues to strengthen its trade alliances, often in other local currencies, bolstering its geopolitical clout. Each maneuver erodes U.S. dominance, leaving its global influence on increasingly shaky ground.

The dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency isn’t vanishing overnight, but its grip is loosening. Its value is eroding rapidly against hard assets like gold and Bitcoin.

Central banks are pivoting from U.S. bonds to gold, and the traditional 60:40 stock-bond portfolio is crumbling as capital floods into safe haven assets.

Decades of Keynesian monetary policies – endless money printing, near-zero interest rates, and quantitative easing – have unleashed a speculative frenzy and persistent inflation, bloating the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to $7 trillion and fueling the “everything bubble”.

This flood of cheap liquidity distorts markets, erodes the dollar’s value, and drives central banks to hoard record amounts of gold, signaling a growing distrust in fiat systems.

The U.S. national debt is nearing $38 trillion – a number too vast to grasp. Break it down to a per capita budget and it’s a grim picture: $110,000 in debt, plus $200,000 in unfunded obligations, with just $15,000 in annual income, and $20,000 in annual expenses, plus $3,000 just to service the interest. 

While everyone is calling it a budget; it should more properly be called a “solvency crisis.” 

Is it even still possible for the Trump administration, or anyone for that matter, to turn this sinking ship around in the face of such overwhelming odds?

Economic news from the Americas

Trade tensions have flared once again as President Trump told reporters last week that his spat with China has escalated into a full-blown trade war, threatening to stop buying cooking oil in response to their decision to drop America as a supplier of soybeans. Who would have thought!

Treasury Secretary Bessent also commented, saying the Trump administration is considering price floors across a range of industries to combat market manipulation by China. But traders called “TACO” and shrugged it off. 

Then a new fear was unlocked, the health of regional bank lending rattled Wall Street on Friday as Zions Bancorporation lost $1 billion of its valuation in a single day after disclosing $60 million worth of loans were unlikely to be repaid. A broad market sell-off ensued!

The U.S. budget deficit for the 2025 fiscal year edged slightly lower as record-setting tariff collections helped offset the spiraling national debt (nearly $38 trillion). The federal government managed to escape with a $1.78 trillion shortfall, 2.2% less than in fiscal 2024.

The federal government shutdown is entering its fourth week and business confidence is starting to wane. Polymarket is giving 40% chance of the shutdown continuing beyond mid-Nov.

United Airlines CEO said, “as time goes on, as people read headlines and say, ‘it’s not going to get resolved soon.’ People start to lose confidence in the government and the government’s ability to resolve this. And that’s going to start to impact bookings.”

Amazon Web Services (AWS) had a bad day yesterday, with an outage that “took down the internet” for over 1,000 companies and millions of users worldwide. Further highlighting the risk of centralising core interest services with just a handful of giant companies.

Over in Europe & the Middle East…

President Trump confirmed that he has scheduled a meeting with Russian President Putin in Budapest this month to discuss how to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. Some sources say there is no meeting scheduled. Watch this space!

The conflict in Gaza briefly resumed after an attack that killed two of Israeli soldiers and prompted a wave of retaliatory airstrikes killing 26 people. The Israeli military said on Sunday that a ceasefire is now in place again.

Chinese state media and pundits have called the Dutch government a “pirate” and even threatened it with a ban on rare earths, following seizure of control of a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker called Nexperia.

Food and beverage giant Nestlé has announced that it will cut 16,000 jobs worldwide over the next two years, including 12,000 white-collar positions and 4,000 additional roles.

Poland’s president has signed a new law introducing zero personal income tax for parents raising at least two children, a reform which aims to support families, increase household income and boost economic activity. Leading the way!

And in Asia Pacific…

China accused the U.S. of creating “panic” over Beijing’s controls on rare earth minerals, indicating it’s open to trade talks, as China’s top leaders are gathering in Beijing for a big strategy meeting.

Sanae Takaichi won a historic vote to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister.

India’s foreign ministry has said it is “not aware” of a phone call in which U.S. President Trump claimed Indian Prime Minister Modi agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil. Ouch!

President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed an agreement on critical minerals that includes plans for projects worth a total of up to $8.5 billion.

Back in NZ, a sharp increase in the number of mortgage sales has emerged over the last few weeks despite the recent drop in interest rates.

Former finance minister Bill English says there would be little point in expanding New Zealand’s capital gains tax as the era of fast house price growth has ended. The housing market continues to show no clear direction in the short term.

Annual inflation, as measured by the consumers price index, rose to 3.0% in the September quarter reaching the top of the Reserve Bank’s 1% to 3% target range. This will likely take another double rate cut off the table at the next RBNZ meeting.

That’s a wrap for this week!

Note: there will be no newsletter next week due to our team’s involvement at the Armageddon Expo. We’ll be back in your inbox on Wed 5 Nov.

Did you miss the last weekly update?

Catch-up on the previous market update.